Slugging Royals prospect Jac Caglianone has gotten to the call to the majors in time for Tuesday’s game, less than a year since being drafted sixth overall out of the University of Florida.
For those new to Caglianone, the first thing you need to know is he has prodigious power, known for hitting 500-foot home runs in college. He clubbed 35 homers in 66 games his junior year. There were very, very slight growing pains in his first partial pro season last year, but nothing like that in 2025. In 50 games between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit .322 with a .593 slugging percentage, 15 homers and 56 RBI.
Some gamblers out there might want a little MLB betting action on Caglianone’s debut, so let’s dive in.
First off, the game is in St. Louis where it’s hot and humid. The ballpark is below average for home runs, but Caglianone has enough power to mitigate that — especially with favorable weather — so I’m not even worried about it.
Andre Pallante is on the mound for the Cardinals. He has given up multiple runs in eight straight starts, pitching to a 4.96 ERA. He is generally a groundball pitcher, but has coughed up seven homers in these eight starts (45 ⅓ innings). He is not a heavy strikeout guy, but Caglianone at the plate can be. He’s a free swinger.
Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
+600 to hit a home run
Here’s the big one. I think there’s a realistic chance it happens. We’ve already talked about Caglianone’s power and he could certainly square up a Pallante heater or get a sinker that doesn’t sink. If that happens, get ready to see a highlight of a player hitting a home run in his MLB debut. He certainly doesn’t feel like the type of player to get defeated by the brightest lights.
+200 to record an RBI
If you want to drop down a level from the home run play, my expectation is Caglianone hits somewhere toward the middle of the order. Ideally, he hits closely behind Bobby Witt Jr. There’s a decent chance Witt gets on base multiple times, possibly with an extra-base hit or gets to first and then steals second. My hunch is Caglianone has an RBI opportunity with a runner in scoring position at least once. If you like plus money here on him coming through in such a spot, this is the play.
Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-130)
There is the other side, of course, where Caglianone has a rough debut. It happens. Kris Bryant in 2015 debuted to greater fanfare than this and went 0 for 4 with three strikeouts. Pete Alonso in 2019 was 1 for 4 with two strikeouts and would’ve hit this under. I wanted to grab a strikeout prop but the books don’t have any available (at least not yet).
It’s possible to hedge the above bets with this one and still come out on top. But you also have the choice to go positive or negative here and either one is defensible.
On the negative side, Caglianone has never been in the majors before and he is such a free swinger that MLB game-planning could really mess with him early on. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that he goes 0 for 4 with four strikeouts while swinging at bad pitches all night. If you believe this is the path, there isn’t too much juice to grab this one.
