Another thrilling comeback occurred in the Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday, only this time it was the New York Knicks who erased a major deficit to pick up a win.
New York still trails the Indiana Pacers 2-1 with Game 4 in Indiana, but the Knicks have at least forced a Game 5 – and could force more – with Sunday’s comeback from a 20-point first-half deficit.
Oddsmakers are buying the Pacers again in Game 4, as they are favored for the second straight game. However, Indiana has gone just 1-2 in its last three home games in the playoffs, losing Game 3 to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round.
Karl-Anthony Towns’ 20-point fourth quarter helped save the Knicks from falling behind 3-0 in the series, and New York tried a lot of new things in Game 3. Not only did Tom Thibodeau play Landry Shamet and Delon Wright for the first time in the series, but he also started Mitchell Robinson in place of Josh Hart.
It’ll be interesting to see how the Knicks proceed in Game 4, in what should be viewed as yet another must-win for Thibs’ squad.
Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Knicks Injury Report
Pacers Injury Report
New York Knicks Best NBA Prop Bet
Josh Hart moved to the bench in Game 3, and he still made a massive impact in 34 minutes of playing time.
Hart pulled down 10 rebounds for the Knicks, including some clutch ones late in the game to secure the win. Hart averaged over nine boards per game in the regular season and is averaging 8.7 rebounds on 17.7 rebound chances per game in the playoffs.
So, even if he’s coming off the bench, Hart feels like a steal at +105 to pick up at least nine boards. He’s already put together two double-digit rebounding games in this series and has nine or more boards in eight games this postseason.
Indiana Pacers Best NBA Prop Bet
TJ McConnell has been a problem for the Knicks in the playoffs, scoring 12, 10, and 10 points in the first three games of the series despite playing 15 minutes or less in each game.
McConnell has attacked the Knicks’ drop coverage well, and he’s been solid this postseason, averaging 9.1 points per game (right in line with his regular-season average) while shooting 52.6 percent from the field.
If the Knicks keep letting him get into the paint, McConnell is an easy bet at this number in Game 4.
Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Pacers are the bet to make in Game 4:
Even though the Pacers blew a big lead in Game 3, they had the Knicks on the ropes once again, getting out in transition and scoring at will in the first half.
Things cooled off in the second half, especially after Aaron Nesmith turned his ankle (he did return to the game), but Indiana’s offense (No. 2 in offensive rating and No. 1 in effective field goal percentage this postseason) has been too good to fade in back-to-back games.
The Pacers simply are getting way easier looks than the Knicks, who rank 10th in the NBA in effective field goal percentage this postseason. Plus, New York needed a dominant fourth quarter from Karl-Anthony Towns just to pull off the comeback win in Game 4.
Indiana followed a similar blueprint in the second round, losing Game 3 at home before it trounced the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 4. The Knicks haven’t had a ton of answers for the Pacers on the defensive end, and some of their best stretches in Game 3 came with one of Jalen Brunson or Towns off the floor – which weakens New York’s offense.
I’m also buying a bounce back from the Pacers on offense. They shot just 5-for-25 from 3 in Game 3 and turned the ball over 12 times. Indy not only is the best shooting team in the playoffs, but it’s also No. 1 in assist/turnover ratio.
At this short price, I’ll back the Pacers to win Game 4.
Pick: Pacers Moneyline (-142 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $200 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.
