Road ‘dogs are BARKING so far in the conference semifinals of the 2025 NBA Playoffs. Not only have road teams covered the first five games of the conference semifinals, but they’ve all won outright, too. Four of these five games came down to the final seconds. So, the NBA is finally putting on a show after a brutal regular season.
In my case, what’s even better about this round is that I’m winning bets. I’m undefeated in the conference semifinals thus far and 11-3 in my last 14 NBA playoff games. Let’s get into Wednesday’s postseason Game 2 doubleheader.
2025 NBA Playoff picks for May 7
The odds are the best available at the time of writing.
- OVER 211 (-110), up to 212, in the New York Knicks at Boston Celtics via DraftKings, risking 1.1 units (u).
- Denver Nuggets +10.5 (-110), down to +9.5, at the Oklahoma City Thunder via DraftKings, risking 1.1u.
OVER 211 in Knicks at Celtics
Game 1 squeaked Over the closing total of 212.5 (depending on where you look) with New York’s 108-105 overtime win. So, the sharp play would be to zigzag on Monday’s result and take the Under for Game 2. However, Boston missed an NBA-record 45 threes Monday (15-for-60), and the Celtics won’t shoot that poorly from deep in two straight games.
Furthermore, the Knicks will have to speed up their tempo to create cross-matchups in transition because Boston’s half-court defense is too good. The Celtics will welcome a faster pace to avoid Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown settling for contested long-mid-range jumpers or step-back 3-pointers.
Despite both teams playing at a slower pace typically, three of their four regular-season meetings went Over the total and all four combined for at least 223 points. Plus, both teams have better offensive efficiency. New York was fifth in offensive rating during the regular season and 14th defensively, while Boston was second in offensive rating and fifth defensively.
Also, the officiating crew for Knicks-Celtics Game 2 has a combined 82-67 Over/Under this season, and all three referees have officiated more Overs. Boston employed a “Hack a Mitchell Robinson” strategy because the Knicks center is 7 for 25 (28.0%) from the foul line in these playoffs. That helps our Over in two ways.
First, that gets NYK into the bonus, and All-Star PG Jalen Brunson is one of the best players in the NBA at getting to the charity stripe. Second, it forces Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau to take Robinson, one of the best defensive bigs in basketball, out of the game. Ultimately, Boston will have a bounce-back shooting night in Game 2 and New York will run-and-gun to keep up.
Prediction: Celtics 113, Knicks 107
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Nuggets (+10.5) at Thunder
Oklahoma City looked shook in its 121-119 Game 1 loss Monday. NBA MVP finalist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and SG Alex Caruso, who won a title with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2020, were the only Thunder players ready for their series opener. SGA had a 33-10-8 stat line and Caruso chipped in 20 points on 58.3% shooting with six assists and five steals.
Meanwhile, Denver’s best players showed up for the series opener. Nikola Jokić had 42 points and 22 rebounds. Aaron Gordon scored 22 points, including the game-winning 3-pointer, and grabbed 14 boards. Jamal Murray put up 21 points and Russell Westbrook had an efficient 18 points on 53.8% shooting.
The Nuggets dominated the boards in Game 1, grabbing 20 more rebounds than the Thunder (63-43), and I don’t see that changing Wednesday. Denver had the second-highest rebounding rate during the regular season and averaged nearly seven more rebounds per game vs. OKC in their five meetings this season.
At the end of the day, the Nuggets have a championship core, and this Thunder team hasn’t proven anything in the postseason yet. Maybe I should blindly bet Oklahoma City in Game 2 on the “zigzag theory”. But, Denver isn’t +10.5 worse than OKC, and I’ll make this “sucker bet” Wednesday.
Prediction: Thunder 118, Nuggets 113
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