For those indulging in early trade scenarios as the season approaches the halfway point of its first month, heed the humdrum message: The Miami Marlins, people familiar with their thinking said, haven’t yet decided whether they’ll deal Sandy Alcantara.
And why would they? There is no pressure to make such a call; the July 31 trade deadline remains more than three months away.
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But this is Miami, the same club that waited only until the first week of May last season before trading two-time batting champion Luis Arraez, who had an additional year remaining of club control. In late December, the Marlins dealt starter Jesús Luzardo two seasons ahead of his free agency. Motivated to capitalize on their players’ values, the Marlins have demonstrated a willingness to act early.
Alcantara’s situation is different. The Marlins ace is signed through 2026 at a relatively modest $17.3 million for each season with a club option for 2027 priced at $21 million. That’s an extra year of control compared with what Arraez and Luzardo had at the time of each player’s trade.
Alcantara is by far Miami’s highest-paid player. The Marlins, according to FanGraphs figures, appear to be operating about $20 million below the level the collective bargaining agreement will require by the end of the season. The Marlins signed only one major-league free agent during the offseason: right-hander Cal Quantrill for one year at $3.5 million.
Coming off a 100-loss season and with a mostly anonymous roster, the Marlins aren’t expected to make the postseason. But the Kansas City Royals’ 30-win improvement last season allows for dreaming — if only in April. Marlins officials share more optimism regarding their roster than they did a year ago; by their internal metrics, their pitchers have shown the most improvement in the league since last year. Rival executives point to Miami’s player development staff as one on the upswing. Through the first 15 games, the Marlins are 8-7. Things can change in a year or two; holding off a bit to trade Alcantara gives Miami a chance, however minuscule.
On a more practical level, waiting until at least midseason before seriously fielding offers on Alcantara provides the 29-year-old an opportunity to prove he is healthy in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery. And that’s probably best for all parties. For the Marlins, it might mean a more substantial return on a trade. For an acquiring team, it might mean more ease when wondering whether Alcantara can resemble his previous form.
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From 2019 to 2023, Alcantara led the National League in innings pitched (858 1/3) and shutouts (four) with twice as many complete games (12) as any other starter. He won the National League Cy Young Award in 2022.
But Alcantara had Tommy John surgery in October 2023 and missed the entire 2024 season.
Scouts say Alcantara looks how they expected him to through his first three starts of the season, which is to say there’s some rust and his velocity is down, but only slightly (his four-seam fastball is averaging 97.4 mph, below his norm of 98 mph). In 15 1/3 innings, Alcantara has a 4.70 ERA with 12 strikeouts and eight walks.
“Sandy has been solid, he’s been good,” Marlins manager Clayton McCullough said ahead of Alcantara’s last start Saturday, when the right-hander allowed four earned runs in 5 2/3 innings, his longest outing. “He felt strong in spring training. He’s felt good so far from his outings, from a health standpoint. The more times he gets back out there and he’s back into that five-day routine and getting starts back, we’ll continue to see the Sandy that everyone is accustomed to.”
If that happens, expect the speculation regarding Alcantara’s future to spike. When the Marlins dealt Luzardo to the Philadelphia Phillies, they signaled future wins meant more to them than wins in 2025. Starlyn Caba, a 19-year-old shortstop yet to play above Class A, headlined the return for Luzardo. If the Marlins move Alcantara, it’s not wrong to expect overall talent to again take precedence over timeline to the majors. In Luzardo’s case, the Marlins needed to act in case he got hurt. In Alcantara’s case, the Marlins can wait to show that he isn’t.
(Photo: Rich Storry / Getty Images)
