A common pitfall of sports bettors is overreacting to what we last saw. For obvious reasons, it can lead to a misguided view of a particular team or player, ignoring the larger sample size of an entire body of work.
And with so few games on the sports calendar, nearly all fans saw the Mavericks dominate the Kings on the road in Wednesday’s play-in game.
At the expense of making that grave mistake, I am backing the Mavs on Friday as a 6.5-point underdog at Memphis. Simply, it feels like too many points for a game that I think will come down to the wire.
First, I think Memphis has fundamental issues and will never be a true contender with Ja Morant as its best player. The Grizzlies fired their head coach late in the season and that has not changed anything.
The Grizz are 7-22-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 30 games. That means they are performing below expectations, which is what we are analyzing for Friday’s do-or-die elimination game.
Plus, sharp handicappers look to capitalize on injuries that fly below the radar, and I believe we have one here.
Memphis is without Jaylen Wells, who is only a rookie but is 6-foot-8 and the team’s best perimeter defender. He wreaked havoc for opposing scorers all season and the Grizzlies miss that.
This Dallas season has defined “tumultuous,” given the Luka Doncic trade and numerous injuries, which included losing Kyrie Irving for the season.
However, the Mavs are now much healthier and have the necessary size and lineup flexibility.
Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively will man the paint and defend 7-foot-4 Zach Edey, while Anthony Davis has the height and athleticism to contain Jaren Jackson Jr., who can score from all three levels.
Dallas coach Jason Kidd used four wing players off the bench in the win over Sacramento, and he will utilize those options to defend Morant and Desmond Bane.
The schedule certainly favors the home team, which last played Tuesday.
Dallas must play two road games in a span of three days. However, the Mavs had a fairly lopsided win and the bench allowed Jason Kidd to prevent overusing the starters. Plus, in the Play-In’s brief history, the road teams on Friday have performed sufficiently against the spread.
Betting on the NBA?
I am 37-25-1 ATS in this Post sports section, and I will look for another win with the Mavs and the points.
The play: Mavericks +6.5 (-110, BetMGM Sportsbook)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
