Farmer’s prediction: A healthy Anthony Davis goes a long way. While he alone can’t win this game for the Mavericks, he is talented enough to keep this tantalizingly close.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Dallas Mavericks forward Anthony Davis.
Can the Dallas Mavericks pull off one more upset on the road to assure us all of at least another two weeks of Nico Harrison content?
Upsetting the Memphis Grizzlies may be a step too far to be confident in, but my Mavericks vs. Grizzlies predictions expect tonight’s final NBA Play-In game to at least be close.
Find out more in my NBA picks for Friday, April 18, with tip-off set for 9:30 p.m. ET.
Who will win Mavericks vs Grizzlies?
The Dallas Mavericks were two-bucket underdogs on the road and facing a team going through internal drama after late-season struggles. They then thrashed the Kings to keep the season alive.
Could Dallas pull all that off again in Memphis?
Now at 7-3 with Anthony Davis in the lineup, and 6-4 against the spread, including 3-2 both ATS and outright as underdogs, the Mavs cannot be quickly dismissed this weekend. But the Memphis Grizzlies are 6.5-point favorites for a reason. Their ceiling is certainly higher.
Between Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr., the Grizzlies will have three of the best four players in this do-or-die game. That should be enough.
Mavericks vs Grizzlies prediction
My best bet: Mavericks +6.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Lost in the discourse laughing at Nico Harrison and defending Luka Doncic was the Anthony Davis of it all. He won a championship in Los Angeles. He is a 10-time All-Star. And now he was simply an afterthought in this blockbuster trade?
Davis had a right to be angry, and his focus has shown on the court … when he has been healthy enough to play.
It showed on Wednesday, when he scored 27 points and grabbed nine rebounds while holding Domantas Sabonis to just 11 points and five turnovers. Davis has long enjoyed facing Sabonis, and he did again.
Know who else Davis enjoys facing? Jaren Jackson Jr. In his last six games against Jackson across the last three years, Davis has averaged 28.2 points and 14.3 rebounds while shooting 57% from the field. Meanwhile, Jackson has averaged 22.5 points and just 6.3 rebounds while shooting 52.2% from the field.
If Davis can be trusted to win the matchup with Jackson, then this suddenly becomes a close game of note.
With Davis in the lineup in the regular season, the Mavs had a net rating of +1.6. That was only in nine games, and much of the competition was lesser, but it also does not include Wednesday’s thrashing of the Kings.
Memphis’ net rating was +1.1 over the final month of the regular season, and that does not include fumbling away a win at Golden State on Tuesday.
Suffice it to say, trusting Davis to win his matchup with Jackson fits in line with the respective net ratings of late, and all those thoughts argue for a game finishing within two buckets.
Mavericks vs Grizzlies same-game parlay
Mavericks +6.5
Anthony Davis 25+ points
Zach Edey Under 12.5 rebounds
The faith in Davis should be obvious. Doubting Zach Edey stems from that faith in Davis. Edey will be a quality NBA player, and the conversation about him these days is overblown. But right now, he is simply not quick enough to bother a big man like Davis or even Daniel Gafford or Dereck Lively II.
Dallas should run Edey off the floor well before he finds a 13th rebound.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Mavericks vs Grizzlies odds
Mavericks vs Grizzlies live odds
Mavericks vs Grizzlies opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +6.5 (-110) | Memphis -6.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Dallas +205 | Memphis -250
- Over/Under: Over 222.5 (-110) | Under 221.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Mavericks vs Grizzlies spread and Over/Under analysis
- The regular-season finale between these two must be ignored, given how few starters played in it, but recognizing that the Grizzlies were 9.5-point road favorites on March 7 stands out. Neither Jackson nor Davis played that day, and the Mavericks were also without Lively and Gafford.
- Adjusting for homecourt suggests this spread has moved nearly eight points since then. Is Dallas’ frontcourt worth that much?
- An argument could be made some of the shrinking spread ties to the stakes of the game.
Mavericks vs Grizzlies trend
Memphis went 1-5 ATS and 3-3 outright as a two- or three-score favorite in the last two months. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Grizzlies.
How to watch Mavericks vs Grizzlies
| Location | FedExForum, Memphis, TN |
| Date | Friday, 4-18-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Mavericks vs Grizzlies latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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