Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Mets and Yankees play a three-game Subway Series starting on Friday at 7:05 p.m. on PIX11.
5 things to watch
Juan Soto
The Subway Series might as well be renamed the Soto Series for this weekend only, given the amount of attention that will be coming the right fielder’s way in his first trip back to the Bronx after signing with the Mets this offseason.
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Soto will almost certainly be the recipient of vitriol from the Yankees fans in the building every time he steps to the plate (and probably every time he’s manning his position in right field). And that is something the normally-unflappable Soto is ready and excited for.
Following his first off day of the season on Wednesday and the Mets’ day off on Thursday, Soto should be fresh and ready to go for this clash.
And while Soto’s overall numbers are still a bit behind his career norms, he has been performing exceptionally well in May.
In 56 plate appearances over 12 games this month, Soto is slashing .289/.411/.667 with five home runs and two doubles.
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Meanwhile, Soto’s BABIP of .264 is well below his career BABIP of .303. Pair that with his elite advanced stats, and it’s fair to expect Soto to be back around his career OPS of .948 sooner rather than later.
Has Brett Baty found his confidence?
When Baty was struggling earlier this season, he talked about how part of it had to do with his confidence.
Given how good Baty has been in Triple-A and how off he had looked at the plate in the majors (until recently), the above isn’t a surprise.
But a different Baty appeared when he was called back up following Jesse Winker‘s injury.
Baty is attacking more, looks a lot more comfortable, and is getting results.
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In 19 plate appearances over five games since returning, Baty has a 1.263 OPS and four home runs. And he’s smacked a few of those home runs the other way with authority — a great sign for Baty in what could be his last, best chance to stick with the Mets.
Can the Mets get to Max Fried?
The pitchers with the two best earned run averages in baseball are both in New York: Fried and his 1.11 ERA, and Kodai Senga and his 1.22 ERA.
Senga isn’t lined up to pitch in this series, but Fried will get the ball on Sunday night.
May 2, 2025; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Max Fried (54) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning at Yankee Stadium / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
The Mets are quite familiar with Fried from his time with the Braves, so they’ve seen what he can do.
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This season, Fried has taken it to another level.
Along with his sparkling ERA, the left-hander has a career-best 0.93 WHIP, is allowing a career-low 6.4 hits per nine, is leading the American League with 56.2 innings pitched, and is leading the majors with an outrageous 359 ERA+.
Edwin Diaz has been lockdown for a month
After Diaz’s rough appearance on April 11 ballooned his ERA to 7.94, some started to call for the Mets to make a change at closer.
That was, of course, overly reactionary since Diaz had started the season with five dominant outings and ordinarily has a rough patch or two each season — that he bounces back from with aplomb.
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Here’s how Diaz has bounced back this time…
Over his last 11 outings spanning 11.1 innings, Diaz has allowed one earned run. He has held opposing batters to a .132/.214/.237 triple slash, given up just five hits, walked four, and struck out 17. His ERA for the season is down to 3.18, while his WHIP is 1.118.
Along the way, Diaz has started to again flash upper 90s velocity with more regularity.
Aaron Judge is on an all-time heater
The Bombers are getting strong offensive seasons from a handful of players, including Paul Goldschmidt and Trent Grisham, but they’re again being led by Judge.
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A perennial MVP candidate, Judge has transformed this season into a hitter who is on pace to have one of the best offensive seasons in the history of baseball.
Through 43 games, Judge is hitting .412/.498/.782 — leading the league in all three categories.
Judge also leads the league in home runs (15), RBI (41), runs (40), hits (68), total bases (129), and OPS+ (257).
The Mets’ best strategy might just be to give Judge the Barry Bonds treatment.
Predictions
Who will the MVP of the series be?
Pete Alonso
It’s been a relatively quiet week or so for Alonso, who seems primed to do some damage within the small confines of Yankee Stadium.
Which Mets pitcher will have the best start?
David Peterson
Peterson struck out seven over 6.0 innings against the Pirates during his last start, limiting Pittsburgh to two runs.
Which Yankees player will be a thorn in the Mets’ side?
Aaron Judge
Damage is going to be done by Judge. It’s just a matter of how much.
