MLB trends: Julio Rodríguez cuts the strikeouts, Yankees cut the velocity and the Cardinals’ leadoff magic

The first 25% of the 2025 MLB regular season is in the books and things are beginning to look normal, for lack of a better term. Only one qualified hitter (Aaron Judge) is hitting over .400 and just a handful of qualified starters have a sub-2.00 ERA. Contenders that started poorly are getting hot and pretenders that started well are coming back to Earth. Here now are three trends worth keeping an eye on as we head into the thick of May.

Julio cutting down on Ks

Mariners star Julio Rodríguez did something this past Saturday he had not done a single time yet in May: he struck out. Rodríguez began May by not striking out in 35 consecutive plate appearances covering eight games. Before this stretch, he had never gone more than three straight games without a strikeout. Rodríguez more than doubled that career-best streak this month.

“The big thing is he has got good rhythm in his hands, but sometimes it’s too much,” Mariners hitting coach Kevin Seitzer said recently (via the Seattle Times). “… It’s quieted down immensely. When I saw where he was then compared to now it’s put him in a much better position, so there is a lot better timing and a lot fewer misses as far as swinging at pitches in the zone.”

Rodríguez, who is still only 24, is running a career low 20.3% strikeout rate. The MLB average is 22.0% strikeouts this year and Rodríguez was in the 25% range from 2022-24. For him, it’s all about contact within the zone. Quieting his hands has led to way fewer swings and misses on pitches in the strike zone. A graph is worth a thousand words:

Rodríguez’s in-zone contact rate was right around 80% the last few seasons. Lately it’s been closer to 85%, which is more or less league average. More contact in the zone equals fewer strikeouts, and because Julio is a premium exit velocity dude, cutting down on strikeouts equals a lot more damage. He’s hitting .289/.333/.489 in May after a .207/.309/.372 line in April.

Because he’s an aggressive hitter who chases out of the zone frequently, strikeouts will always be part of Rodríguez’s game. He’s not going to suddenly turn into Steven Kwan, you know? But with his hard-hit ability, cutting his strikeout rate from 25% or so down to 20% will make a big difference for him and the Mariners. Julio’s natural talent is so obvious and it’s easy to forget he’s still so young and gaining experience. Quieting his hands has allowed him to take another step toward his superstar ceiling.

The soft-tossing Yankees

Although they are known as the Bronx Bombers, the Yankees have been pretty excellent at keeping runs off the board the last few seasons. From 2021-24, the Yankees ranked fifth in ERA (3.70), sixth in total runs allowed per game (4.02), and fifth in pitching WAR (71.9). New York was among the best run prevention teams in the game for a four-year stretch there.

Not coincidentally, the Yankees also ranked near the top of the league in fastball velocity those four seasons. Velocity is not everything, but it is a pretty big piece of the pie. Velocity equals margin of error. The faster the pitch, the less time the hitter has to react, which also means less time to adjust to breaking balls and offspeed pitches. Velocity is an obvious plus.

This season, the Yankees have gone from being one of the hardest throwing teams in the sport to the softest. Here is where the Yankees have ranked in average four-seam fastball and sinker velocity the last few years:

The sinker decline began last year when Marcus Stroman was added to the rotation and sidearming lefty Tim Hill was brought in at midseason to help the bullpen. The Yankees have taken a bigger plunge down the velocity leaderboard this year in part due to Gerrit Cole (Tommy John surgery) and Luis Gil (lat strain) throwing a combined zero pitches. They were two of the top 20 starters in fastball velocity last year and they’ve yet to pitch this season. (Gil is expected to return in a few weeks. Cole is done for 2025.)

The lack of velocity is especially evident in the bullpen. The hardest pitch thrown by a Yankees’ reliever this season is a 96.9 mph sinker by up/down guy Yerry De Los Santos this past weekend. The Yankees have not had a reliever throw a legit 97 mph fastball this year (i.e. no rounding up). Every other team has gotten at least a 98.0 mph pitch from their bullpen. Twenty-three teams have gotten a 99.0 mph pitch from a reliever and 18 have gotten 100.0 mph. The Yankees have topped out several ticks below that.

So far the lack of velocity has not hurt the Yankees too much. Entering Tuesday, they ranked ninth in ERA (3.66), 11th in total runs allowed per game (3.98), and 11th in pitching WAR (4.9). The Yankees are are not a tippy top run prevention team, but they are above average, which is pretty good without Cole and Gil, plus Devin Williams struggling. Things had a chance to really go sideways on the Yankees with those two on the bench. For now, they’re making it work, even if they are the league’s softest tossers.

Nootbaar setting the tone for Cardinals

With 11 wins in their last 13 games, the Cardinals suddenly find themselves in the thick of the NL Central race, albeit with so much of the season still to be played. Their pitching has been much better of late, especially the bullpen, and eight times in those 11 wins the offense scored at least five runs. Six times they scored at least six runs.

Setting the tone for the Cardinals is 2023 World Baseball Classic champion Lars Nootbaar, who’s batted leadoff in 40 of the team’s 42 games. Nootbaar is hitting .250/.372/.419 with more walks (30) than strikeouts (28) this season, and his numbers leading off the game have been out of this world. Check out Nootbaar’s numbers as the first batter of the first inning:

Nootbaar has reached base 20 times in 40 plate appearances to begin a game. Those 40 times on base are broken down into eight hits, including two leadoff homers, and 12 walks. Nootbaar’s 20 times on base to begin a game are the most in baseball, ahead of Francisco Lindor‘s 18. Lindor has two more leadoff plate appearances too. 

It may not seem like it, but 12 walks to start a game is a ton. Only 45 players have drawn at least 20 walks to begin a game in a single season in the Expansion Era (since 1961). The Expansion Era record is 28 leadoff walks by Willie Randolph with the 1980 Yankees. Nootbaar is on pace to obliterate Randolph’s record. The all-time record is 47 leadoff walks by Eddie Stanky with 1945 Dodgers. Nootbaar has an outside shot at that.

“The guys joke with me about (the leadoff walks record), but as a leadoff hitter, I still have that old school mentality of seeing some pitches,” Nootbaar said last month (via MLB.com). “There are times when I can jump on a pitch. But coming from an old school baseball family, that’s what you do and that’s seeing a lot of pitches as a leadoff hitter.”

Here’s the thing though: St. Louis has done a terrible job turning Nootbaar’s leadoff success into runs. Even though Nootbaar has reached base half the time to begin games, the Cardinals have scored only 14 first-inning runs this year, second fewest in baseball and ahead of only the Astros (eight). Only twice all season have they scored multiple first-innings runs. Both times Nootbaar drew a leadoff walk, then Willson Contreras banged a multi-run extra-base hit.

Nootbaar is holding up his end of the bargain. He’s been incredible as the leadoff man and especially leading off games. It’s on the rest of the Cardinals to cash in the opportunities Nootbaar creates in the first inning. First-inning runs change the complexion of the game. Quick first-inning runs force the other team to play catch-up right away. Nootbaar has been so good leading off games this season. He’s been a major reason St. Louis has inched its way up the standings the last few weeks.