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Jim McCormick
The 2025 NBA playoffs have highlighted plenty of exciting matchups over the past month, but the LA Clippers–Denver Nuggets series might top them all. With multiple games in the series coming down to the wire, Game 7 is sure to entertain. The Clippers took Game 6 in a 111-105 win at home on Thursday night and with the series back in Denver, Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets will be looking to make a statement.
The game offers plenty of opportunity for bettors to take advantage. Here are three bets to consider ahead of Saturday night’s Game 7.
Odds by ESPN BET
Bets that stand out for Saturday
James Harden over 8.5 assists (-140)
This line naturally sits right around Harden’s assist rate this season. The Nuggets have had a tough time effectively blitzing Harden, as he has been ready to pass ahead or rotate around the arc to keep the offense going. Even with less on-ball dominance, Harden has averaged nearly identical raw passing metrics to the regular season. This is a clear positive given Harden and his teammates converted nearly 16% of his passes into actualized assists in the regular season, while his playoff rate is 14.4%. These are among the best passing efficiency rates in the NBA, suggesting no matter how Denver approaches Harden’s playmaking, he’s going to make plays.
Jamal Murray over 21.5 points (-115)
Several models have Murray closer to 23 points. This isn’t some daring math, as he has averaged 24 PPG for the series, albeit buoyed by one big outing. The main pitch is how condensed the Denver rotation and offense could prove in a Game 7 at home. The Nuggets don’t have a playmaker on the perimeter outside of Murray, which should propel him to a high-usage, shot-happy diet against a Clippers team that doesn’t have a point-of-attack defender to play high-leverage minutes past Kris Dunn.
Over 206.5 total points (-115)
The risk is fairly clear; these are deliberate, steady, and veteran-led offenses that are near the bottom of the league in pace in both the regular season and playoffs. So why is this over angle appealing? Only one game has gone under the total this series, with the five other contests clearing this bar easily. The other angle is that the Clippers rank third in offensive rating in the playoffs, with Denver at seventh, making this the best offensive matchup of the first round.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET
LA Clippers at Denver Nuggets
7:30 p.m. ET on TNT
Line: Clippers 1.5 (-107) | Nuggets -1.5 (-107)
Money line: Clippers +105 | Nuggets -125
Total: 207.5 (-107 O, -107 U)
BPI Projection: Nuggets by 1.9, straight up 56%, 222.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Clippers: Seth Lundy, (OFS – Ankle)
Nuggets: DaRon Holmes II, (OFS – Achilles)
