Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Due to all the injuries at the top of the point guard pricing tier, James Harden is the clear-cut best pay-up option to target on this seven-game slate. Harden has eclipsed 50+ DraftKings points in seven of his last nine games with four double-doubles during that time. His previous inconsistency has kept Harden’s salary in check. Priced at $9,600, Harden ranks third in projected ceiling behind two stud centers tonight.
The Clippers and Nets are going in the opposite direction in their conference standings. The Clippers have won nine of their last 11, while the Nets have lost 15 of 17 games. Being a double-digit road favorite, it looks like this trend is going to continue. The Nets have nothing to play for and are an elite matchup for opponents right now. Expect another ceiling performance from Harden at a relatively cheap price tag.
Value
The plethora of value point guards available makes up for the lack of pay-up options at this position. With so many injuries on the Pelican’s, they are arguably the best team to target from a value perspective. Four of the top five players in projected Plus/Minus are on the Pelicans, including point guard Elfrid Payton, who leads the slate in projected Plus/Minus after a ceiling performance game against the 76ers. In his 25 minutes, Payton had 14 assists, six points, six rebounds, two blocks, and one steal for 39 DraftKings points.
With a salary of $3,200 and projected to play a little over 20 minutes, Payton is a fantastic value in a stars and scrubs lineup build. The Pelicans are an absurd 14.5-point home underdog, but they are running out of bodies to play. The Pelicans signed Payton and are likely to sign him to another 10-day contract soon.
Fast Break
Jamal Murray has flashed a ceiling recently but is questionable to play with a hamstring injury. Keep an eye on his status throughout the day. With point guard and shooting guard eligibility, Murray is a strong play in all formats if he is able to suit up. If he is out, Russell Westbrook will be a great mid-range option. With Murray off the floor, Westbrook has a +2.03% usage rate and a +3.82 DraftKings Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool). One of Murray or Westbrook will be a strong play against a pitiful Jazz defense tonight.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
[embedded content]
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Devin Booker has recorded three straight double-doubles, averaging 16.7 points and 10.7 assists per game. However, he has a negative Plus/Minus in each of those three games, while shooting a putrid 37.5% from the field and 13.3% from behind the arc. Expect his shooting numbers to come back to the mean, which leaves room for a ceiling performance, especially with Bradley Beal still out due to injury.
The Suns have won four of their last five games but are seven-point road underdogs to the Timberwolves, who rank sixth in defensive rate this season. The Timberwolves have the Suns number over the past two years, but Booker has had no trouble filling it up. In his three games in this matchup, Booker is averaging 29.7 points and 6.7 assists per game, while shooting 51.7% from the field and 40.7% from long distance.
Value
In his second year in the league, Jordan Hawkins is averaging double-digit points per game and has a positive Plus/Minus in three of his last four games. During that four-game stretch, Hawkins is averaging 14.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 24.1 DraftKings points per game, while shooting nearly 70% of his field goals from behind the arc. At $4,500, Hawkins does not have to do much to return value tonight.
The Warriors defense has allowed opponents to shoot 36.4% from downtown this season, which ranks 21st in the league. If they are going to be beaten, it will be on the perimeter. Stephen Curry is questionable, and their elite guard defender, Gary Payton III, is out with an injury. With point guard and shooting guard eligibility, Hawkins is easy to fit into all formats and is another cheap way to get exposure to the Pelicans.
Fast Break
The Timberwolves have lost three of their last four games, and Anthony Edwards’ shooting numbers are a big reason why. He is another boom-or-bust fantasy option, but this Suns matchup brings out the best in Edwards. In his three games against them this season, Edwards is averaging 33.7 points per game while shooting 57.1% from the field and 41.4% from deep. Expect the stars to shine in Minnesota. Edwards is more expensive than Booker but has a lower projected ceiling. However, he is difficult to ignore tonight.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Kawhi Leonard has been exceptional lately and is simply too cheap for his fantasy output. He has posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven consecutive games and is averaging 48.7 DraftKings points per game with three straight double-doubles. Leonard has recorded at least 23 points and 43 DraftKings points in each of those games, proving his consistency. He is an elite cash-game play and a strong tournament option.
Leonard has the second-highest projected ceiling among small forward-eligible players and is projected to play around 36 minutes. Getting that much playing time against the Nets, who rank 20th in defensive rating should result in a strong fantasy performance. There are several boom-or-bust tournament options, but no one brings the consistency like Leonard. He is a great option, especially in non-Harden lineups.
Value
Baylor rookie Ja’Kobe Walter is starting to get more playing time with Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, and Gradey Dick all still out due to injury. Walter has posted four straight games with double-digit points and 20+ DraftKings points per game. He is only shooting 33.3% from the field but is averaging 12 field goal attempts per game. Walter leads all small forwards in projected Plus/Minus at his sub-$4,000 price tag.
The Raptors have won back-to-back games and are surprisingly 4.5-point home favorites despite their 26-47 record. It is due to a matchup against the Hornets, who are without LaMelo Ball. This game features a low game total of only 215.5 points, but there is still value getting exposure to Walter. He is another value player that is under $4,000 while being projected to play 28 minutes with a close to 20% usage rate.
Fast Break
Jimmy Butler struggled mightily against his former team, but it was just his third game with a negative Plus/Minus in his last 10 games. During that stretch, Butler is averaging 18.2 points, 7.3 assists, and 6.9 rebounds per game with two triple-doubles and one double-double. With Stephen Curry questionable to play, that would provide a significant boost to Butler’s production if he were out. The Pelicans rank dead last in defensive rating at 119.1 and are allowing opponents to shoot a league-best 48.4% from the field.
[embedded content]
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
There is optimism that Giannis Antetokounmpo is playing tonight after he missed Wednesday’s game due to a foot injury. Averaging 30.1 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 58.7 DraftKings points per game, Giannis would be a strong pay-up option if he is able to suit up. The Bucks have fallen to sixth in the Eastern Conference standings and are one-point home underdogs against the Knicks, who are also reeling lately.
Surprisingly, the Knicks have struggled defending the paint this season. They rank 22nd in the league, allowing 50 points per game in the paint. That will benefit Giannis, who lives in the paint. He has not had a ceiling game against the Knicks, but with Damian Lillard out, this is an incredible spot to get exposure to a high usage Giannis. If Giannis is unable to play, look to value plays like Kyle Kuzma and Bobby Portis.
Value
Looking to go dumpster diving once again, Hornets’ rookie forward Tidjane Salaun leads this position in projected Plus/Minus by a comfortable margin. Salaun is projected to play 24 minutes and has averaged 17 DraftKings points in back-to-back games since returning from injury. Mainly a G-League player, Salaun has started eight games for the Hornets and has been productive when getting the valuable playing time.
The Raptors have a middling defense and also have nothing to play for in this matchup. It will not take much for Salaun to return value and be a great piece in a stars and scrubs lineup build. Nearly all of Salaun’s production comes from scoring and rebounding the ball. He is also a capable perimeter shooter, so he can stretch the floor. He is simply too cheap for his projected playing time in this matchup tonight.
Fast Break
After back-to-back games with over 60 DraftKings points, Kevin Durant scored 30 points for the third straight game and shot 11-for-16 from the field, but his peripherals were lacking last game. Similar to Booker, Durant has also had success against a difficult Timberwolves defense. In their two matchups this season, Durant is averaging 29.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game, while shooting 54.8% from the field and 41.2% from downtown. He is another star that is worth targeting in Minnesota tonight.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Without any surprise, Nikola Jokic leads the slate in projected ceiling. After missing five games due to an ankle injury, Jokic returned and picked up right where he left off with a 39-point, 10-rebound, 10-assist triple-double, accumulating 71 DraftKings points. It was his fourth 70+ DraftKings point game in his last seven contests. No one on this slate has his type of ceiling, and there is plenty of value to make it easy to pay up for Jokic tonight. He is probable to play and will feast against this weak Jazz interior frontcourt.
In his three games against the Jazz this season, Jokic is averaging an absurd 31 points, 16 rebounds, and nine assists while shooting 50.9% from the field and 50% from distance. With so many injuries to the highest pricing tier, Jokic is the clear best pay-up option available. Make sure to get overexposed tonight.
Value
The last Pelicans value play that is worth getting exposure to is Yves Missi. In the last four games that Missi has played in, he is averaging a near double-double with 11.5 points and nine rebounds per game. He has exceeded 30+ DraftKings points in three of his last four games, which is more than enough to pay off his $4,500 salary. With the core of the Pelicans unable to play, Missi has a +4.74% usage rate this season.
The Warriors do present a difficult matchup inside, but the Pelicans have no choice but to play Missi nearly 30 minutes in this spot. Working in Missi’s favor is that he is incredibly active when on the floor. Not only is he scoring and rebounding like a madman, but he also has 10 blocks in his last six games. The Pelicans will likely get crushed tonight, but Missi is a great bring-back option when targeting the Warriors.
Fast Break
Karl-Anthony Towns is back to being an absolute stud recently with three ceiling performances in a row. In that three-game stretch, Towns is averaging 30.3 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 59.75 DraftKings points with two double-doubles and one triple-double. It helps that Jalen Brunson is still out due to injury, which boosts Towns’ production. With Brunson off the floor this season, Towns has a team-high +5.33% usage rate and a +7.35 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Jokic has the higher ceiling, but Towns is not far behind.
