Sunday features a two-game main slate starting at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Stud
We have two big Game 4s on tap for Sunday. The Cavaliers and Thunder were the two best teams during the regular season, but both teams are currently down in their respective series. Now, they’ll have to pick up road wins Sunday just to get back to two games apiece. Fortunately for them, both teams are favored to do so, with the Cavs favored by 5.5 points over the Pacers and the Thunder favored by 6.5 over the Nuggets.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be looking to bounce back after a dreadful performance by his standards in Game 3. He finished with just 18 points on 7-for-22 shooting, and he was just 1-for-6 from 3-point range. He still managed to get to 50.25 DraftKings points thanks to 13 rebounds and seven assists, but it was not the type of scoring performance we’ve become accustomed to. Gilgeous-Alexander led the league with more than 32 points per game during the regular season, and he had at least 33 points in his first two games vs. the Nuggets in this series.
SGA’s scoring numbers should bounce back to his usual rate Sunday, giving him massive upside at his current price tag. He’s averaged 1.40 DraftKings points per minute during the postseason, and he’s coming off nearly 45 minutes in Game 3. He probably won’t play quite as much in Game 4, but he’s still projected for 40 minutes in our NBA Models. He ultimately ranks first at the position in projected Plus/Minus and ceiling projection, so he’s one of the clear top studs on the slate.
Value
If you’re looking to jam in a stud or two on this slate, we’re going to need to find some value plays to make that possible. T.J. McConnell is one possibility. McConnell’s production was down during the first two games of this series, but he racked up 29.5 DraftKings points in 21.2 minutes in Game 3.
McConnell played a few extra minutes because the game turned into a blowout, but he doesn’t necessarily need 20-plus minutes to potentially return value. He’s a phenomenal per-minute producer, and he’s very affordable at just $3,800. McConnell has historically had a comparable salary and minute projection on plenty of occasions with the Pacers, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.44 in that split (per the Trends tool). He has some downside, as he finished with 11.25 DraftKings points or fewer in Games 1 and 2, but he has plenty of upside as well.
Fast Break
If you’re looking to get contrarian at the position, Darius Garland is an interesting option. He wasn’t asked to do much in his first game back, finishing with just 14.75 DraftKings points in 24.9 minutes. That said, there’s no guarantee the Cavs have that luxury Sunday. This is a must-win contest, so they might be forced to push Garland a bit harder. If that happens, he has excellent upside at $6,700. He’s currently projected for less than 2% ownership in our NBA Models, but his optimal lineup rate is closer to 8%.
Andrew Nembhard is coming off a rare poor showing in Game 3, but he has been phenomenal for the Pacers during the playoffs. He had at least 30.25 DraftKings points in four of five games vs. the Bucks, and he had at least 34.5 DraftKings points in his first two games vs. the Cavaliers. His salary has yet to fully reflect his increased production, so he’s a viable target at $5,900.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Donovan Mitchell tried to will the Cavs across the finish line in Game 2, but he ultimately ran out of gas at the end. He posted a usage rate of greater than 50% in that contest, and he responded with 75.75 DraftKings points.
Mitchell didn’t need to do quite as much with the team getting healthier in Game 3, but that didn’t stop him from delivering another fantastic performance. He finished with 43 points, nine rebounds, and five assists, resulting in 65.25 DraftKings points in his 37.3 minutes. Overall, Mitchell has now averaged 1.48 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is a better mark than even SGA among Sunday’s backcourt options.
Mitchell doesn’t grade out quite as favorably as SGA in our Models, but there’s no denying his upside. He clearly enjoys this matchup vs. the Pacers, scoring at least 33 points in four of five matchups (including the regular season). He owns the top ceiling projection at shooting guard, and his optimal lineup rate is roughly 5% higher than his projected ownership.
Value
Jamal Murray isn’t a “value” in the truest definition at $7,300. He’s still going to set you back a solid amount, but he has the potential to be worth every penny. He’s the top option at shooting guard in terms of projected Plus/Minus, and he’s showing up in the optimal lineup simulations at a greater than 40% clip.
Murray has been inconsistent during the postseason, but he still has a much higher ceiling than his current salary suggests. He has one game with more than 71 DraftKings points during the playoffs, and he has two others with at least 48.5. All three of those outings have come in his last six contests, so he’s also trending in the right direction.
Fast Break
Bennedict Mathurin is another potential source of savings for the Pacers. He had a subpar series vs. the Bucks in the first round, but he’s put his scoring prowess on display vs. the Cavaliers. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, including a 23-point performance in Game 3. Overall, he’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for another 24 minutes in Game 4.
Christian Braun has become a vital part of the Nuggets’ rotation this season. They are lacking for depth in a big way, especially with Michael Porter Jr. playing at far less than 100%. Braun has logged at least 40 minutes in two of the first three games in this series, with the Game 2 blowout being the lone exception. He hasn’t been super productive on a per-minute basis, but that’s a lot of playing time for someone who costs just $5,300.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
The Thunder managed to get to overtime in Game 3 despite a subpar SGA performance, largely because of Jalen Williams. He had 32 points Friday night, which was his top mark of the postseason by a comfortable margin. It’s the type of performance the Thunder are going to need from Williams if they’re going to win a championship.
Overall, Williams has been a steady producer for most of the playoffs. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of seven outings, and one of the exceptions was a game where he played just 26.5 minutes. He’s averaged a very healthy 1.26 DraftKings points per minute during the playoffs, and he’s projected for 38 minutes in Game 3. That’s a nice combination, giving him the top projected Plus/Minus at small forward.
Value
With the Cavaliers ailing, Max Strus has become a vital part of their rotation. His workload wasn’t quite as large in Game 3 as it was in Game 2, but he was able to make the most of his opportunities. He finished with 20 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists in 33.3 minutes, resulting in 43.25 DraftKings points.
It was his second straight outing with more than 40 DraftKings points, and he’s now averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He remains affordable at $5,100 on DraftKings, and he’s projected for another 32 minutes on Sunday’s slate.
Fast Break
Porter Jr. might be the toughest player to predict in DFS at the moment. He was awesome in Game 3, finishing with 34.5 DraftKings points in more than 42 minutes, but he played significantly less in each of the first two contests. If he’s not playing well, the Nuggets’ coaching staff has no problem sticking him on the bench. That gives him a wide range of outcomes, but he’s definitely underpriced for his ceiling at just $4,500. If he can get to his 34 projected minutes in Game 4, he has a great chance to return value.
Like Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith has been phenomenal for the Pacers for most of the postseason before struggling in Game 3. He had posted a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games before that contest, and he had at least 38.25 DraftKings points in three of them. He has plenty of bounceback appeal at just $5,400 for Game 4.
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NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Evan Mobley returned to the lineup in Game 3 and was a clear difference-maker for the Cavaliers. He showed why he took home the Defensive Player of the Year award, putting together an extremely well-rounded stat line. He had 18 points, 13 rebounds, four assists, three blocks, and three steals, resulting in 54.25 DraftKings points. Mobley now has at least 40.0 DraftKings points in both playoff matchups vs. the Pacers, and he’s averaged a position-best 1.30 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Value
There doesn’t appear to be a great source of savings at power forward on Sunday. Only five players are projected for a positive Plus/Minus at the position, and all five cost at least $6,100.
Aaron Gordon is the cheapest of that quintet, and he trails only Williams in terms of projected Plus/Minus. He’s been the Nuggets’ most consistent role player, posting a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games. He’s also displayed some upside during that stretch, going for at least 43.0 DraftKings points in Games 1 and 3 vs. the Thunder. If they’re going to pull off another upset, they’re going to need Gordon to be a central figure.
Fast Break
Pascal Siakam has basically been a nonfactor for the Pacers in this series, which has caused his salary to dip to just $6,500. That makes him an interesting buy-low target. He’s only had a comparable salary in five games since joining Indiana, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.30 in those contests. His playing time should return to normal if Sunday’s game is more competitive, and Siakam has always been a capable per-minute producer.
If you’re looking for a punt play at power forward, Obi Toppin is probably your best bet. He has the top optimal lineup rate among the cheap options, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games. He’s not seeing a ton of playing time at the moment, but he’s typically extremely active when he’s on the floor.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
The most shocking part of the Nuggets’ Game 3 upset is that they didn’t get a great Nikola Jokic performance in that contest. He was uncharacteristically inefficient as a scorer, shooting just 8-for-25 from the field and 0-for-10 from 3-point range. He still managed to get to 54.5 DraftKings points thanks to 16 rebounds, six assists, two steals, and two blocks, but it could’ve been a much bigger performance if he shot the ball at his usual rate.
There’s no reason to expect Jokic’s struggles to continue. He has been the best player in basketball for a while now, especially from a fantasy standpoint. His production is slightly down during the playoffs, where he’s at just 1.53 DraftKings points per minute, but that’s still the top mark on the slate.
Jokic ultimately leads all players in terms of projected Plus/Minus and ceiling projection. His 13 Pro Trends also rank first on the slate. The only real question is whether there’s enough value to afford him. The good news is that his $11,200 salary makes him way cheaper than usual, and he’s just $1,000 more expensive than SGA. Debating between those two players is tough, but paying up for Jokic is very rarely a bad idea. He has the potential to break the slate every time he walks on the floor.
Value
Myles Turner had a quiet regular season, but he has been huge for the Pacers during the playoffs. He struggled after a 12-point first quarter in Game 3, but he posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games before that outing. His playing time had been way up during that stretch, logging as many as 35 minutes in Game 2, and he’s always been a phenomenal per-minute producer. As long as his playing time continues to be elevated, he’s underpriced at $6,200.
Fast Break
Jarrett Allen doesn’t have the same ceiling as some of the other players in his price range, but he stands out as one of the best pure values. He’s priced at just $6,600, resulting in a 96% Bargain Rating. Allen has also scored at least 41.0 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and he managed to maintain that level of production despite the return of Garland and Mobley in Game 3.
Chet Holmgren struggled with foul trouble in Game 1 vs. the Nuggets, but he’s bounced back with at least 42.25 DraftKings points in Games 2 and 3. His average of 1.30 DraftKings points per minute trails only Jokic at the position, and he’s significantly cheaper than the Nuggets big man. His upside could be a bit undervalued.
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Pictured: Nikola Jokic
Photo Credit: David Gonzales-Imagn Images
