Wednesday features a two-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Stud
We have two Game 2s on tap for Wednesday, and both will feature the home team trying to even the series. The Celtics and Thunder both dropped Game 1 on their home floors as heavy favorites, so they’ll look to bounce back before heading on the road. Both teams are listed as 10.5-point favorites in Game 2, so they are expected to take care of business.
The Thunder stand out as the top team target on this slate. They’re currently implied for 120 points, which is the top mark of the day by nearly double digits. That makes Shai Gilgeous-Alexander a prime target. He’s been one of the best players in fantasy all season, and he’s coming off an excellent showing in Game 1 vs. the Nuggets. He racked up 65.5 DraftKings points in just under 40 minutes, finishing just two assists shy of a triple-double.
SGA is also down to just $9,800 on DraftKings, which is a ridiculously low price tag for him. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.88 with a comparable salary over the past two seasons (per the Trends tool), and he owns a massive 94% Bargain Rating. SGA ultimately leads the entire slate in projected Plus/Minus, and he’s second in ceiling projection. It’s tough to pass up on that combination.
Value
Sticking with the Thunder, Alex Caruso could become increasingly important for them during the postseason. He was a bit of a luxury item during the regular season, with the Thunder possessing one of the deepest rosters in basketball. However, Caruso is one of the few players on the team with meaningful postseason experience, so his role should continue to grow.
He posted a positive Plus/Minus in his final three games vs. the Grizzlies in the first round, and he put together a massive performance in Game 1 vs. the Nuggets. He racked up 45.75 DraftKings points in 26.2 minutes, finishing with 20 points, six assists, one rebound, and five steals. Caruso is capable of producing at an elite per-minute rate, and he’s projected for another 25 minutes in Game 2. That makes him one of the better value plays in the backcourt.
Fast Break
Jalen Brunson continues to be a bit overlooked for DFS. He was overshadowed by Cade Cunningham in Round 1, and now he’s sharing the slate with the best point guard in the league. However, Brunson is an elite fantasy producer in his own right. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of seven games, and the lone exception was a game where he suffered an injury. He’s had at least 54.25 DraftKings points in four of those outings, so he has an elite ceiling for his $8,200 price tag. Brunson is an interesting pivot off SGA for tournaments, and both players can potentially be played together as well.
Like Caruso, Russell Westbrook is becoming increasingly important for his team. Michael Porter Jr. is clearly injured, leaving Westbrook as the fifth guy in their rotation more often than expected. He’s averaged just under a fantasy point per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for 29 minutes in our NBA Models. He had at least 37.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games before a more mediocre showing in Game 1 vs. the Thunder, so he’s another viable value target.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The big story in Game 1 of Knicks-Celtics was Boston’s inability to knock down shots. They missed an NBA-record 45 3-pointers, and Jaylen Brown was one of the biggest culprits. He was just 1-10 from distance, and his production has been down overall during the playoffs. He’s failed to crack 40 DraftKings points in five of six outings, which is not what we’ve come to expect from him.
Still, Brown did manage to post a positive Plus/Minus in his last contest despite the poor shooting production. His salary has also come way down since the start of the postseason, decreasing by -$1,000 from his peak. He’s still a player with a proven track record, so he’s a solid buy-low candidate.
Value
Christian Braun is another potential value option for Denver. He has become one of their most important role players, and he’s given the Nuggets and DFS players big production of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games, and he racked up 35.25 DraftKings points across 40 minutes in Game 1 vs. the Thunder.
Braun is projected for another 38 minutes in Game 2, and that’s a lot of playing time for someone who costs $5,500. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.57.
Fast Break
Jamal Murray looks pretty similar to Brown on the surface. He has the more difficult matchup – OKC was first in defensive efficiency during the regular season – but the Nuggets need more from Murray than the Celtics do from Brown. He’s projected for 42 minutes in our NBA Models, and only Caruso has a higher optimal lineup rate at the position.
Mikal Bridges logged 51 of a possible 53 minutes in Game 1 vs. the Celtics, and there’s no reason to expect much different in Game 2. The Knicks have a slightly longer break before Game 3, so if anything, Tom Thibodeau has more incentive to lean on his starters. Bridges hasn’t displayed an elite ceiling during the playoffs, but he has posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Jayson Tatum was better than Brown in Game 1, but it was still a subpar game by his standards. He finished with 59.0 DraftKings points – his fourth straight game with at least 55.75 – but he was a subpar 7-23 from the field and 4-15 from 3-point range. He made up for it with 16 rebounds, but he’ll need to be more efficient as a scorer if the Celtics are going to win back-to-back titles.
The good news is there’s no reason to expect that to continue. Tatum has been brilliant all season, putting together arguably the best season of his career. He’s also been priced down to $9,200. Like SGA, that is simply too cheap for a player of his caliber. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.95 with a comparable salary since the start of 2022-23. You obviously can’t play all the studs on this slate, but Tatum should be near the top of your priority list.
Value
Another factor working in Tatum’s favor is that small forward doesn’t have a great value option to consider. Michael Porter Jr. is the best candidate at $4,600, and he still carries a ton of risk. MPJ has been limited to 24.4 minutes or fewer in two of his past three games, and he’s dealing with a significant shoulder injury. His best attribute is his ability to shoot the basketball, and he’s not doing nearly as much of that at the moment.
Ultimately, Porter ranks fifth at the position in projected Plus/Minus, and first among players with a sub-$6k price tag. Still, it’s hard to feel comfortable playing him at the moment.
Fast Break
OG Anunoby was absolutely brilliant for the Knicks in Game 1. He finished with 29 points while playing outstanding defense, and he kept the Knicks alive before Brunson took over late. He racked up 42.0 DraftKings points, his third straight game with at least 37.0. If you’re not paying up for Tatum, he’s one of the safest pivots.
If you’re looking for a low-ownership punt play, Aaron Wiggins makes some sense at a weak position. Wiggins was outstanding when he was on the floor during the regular season, but he hasn’t had as many opportunities during the playoffs. However, he still saw 13.6 minutes in Game 1 vs. the Nuggets, and he’s the type of player who can average better than a fantasy point per minute. That gives him just a smidge of appeal at $3,200.
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NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
The Thunder need a better performance out of Jalen Williams in Game 2. He was their second-best offensive player during the regular season, but he was awful in Game 1 vs. the Nuggets. He shot just 5-20 from the field and 2-9 from 3-point range, which is simply not good enough in the playoffs.
The silver lining is that Williams was still somehow able to post a positive Plus/Minus in that contest. He has to be better by default in Game 2, so he’s definitely viable at just $7,400. He grades out just slightly behind Tatum in terms of projected Plus/Minus.
Value
Porter’s injury has also increased the burden on Aaron Gordon for the Nuggets. Gordon is capable of doing a little bit of everything, and he’s now posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games. He‘s coming off his best game of the postseason in Game 1 vs. the Thunder, finishing with 43.5 DraftKings points in 39.1 minutes. He should approach 40 minutes once again on Wednesday, so he’s a strong midrange value.
Fast Break
Josh Hart is the last of the Knicks’ trio of wings, and he’s probably the best for fantasy purposes. He doesn’t score the ball as well as Bridges or Anunoby, but he does everything else at an elite rate. He’s scored at least 34.0 DraftKings points in five straight games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of them.
Chet Holmgren played less than 28 minutes in his last outing due to foul trouble. There’s no guarantee he avoids foul trouble in Game 2, but if he does, expect better production. He’s averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should see closer to 32 minutes on Wednesday.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Nikola Jokic continues to do Jokic things during the playoffs. He just racked up a casual 42 points, 22 rebounds, and six assists against the best team in basketball, resulting in 83.5 DraftKings points. He joined Wilt Chamberlain, Shaquille O’Neal, and Giannis Antetokounmpo as the only players in NBA history to go for at least 40, 20, and five in a playoff contest, and it barely even registered for most people. He’s become so good that nights like that feel like the expectation instead of the exception.
Jokic is capable of breaking the slate every time he takes the floor. He has the top ceiling projection in our NBA Models, and he’s going to have to continue to do everything for the undermanned Nuggets.
The only real issue is his price tag. While guys like SGA and Tatum have seen significant reductions to their salaries, Jokic is still priced at $11,000. While that’s a reasonable figure for him, it doesn’t stand out as the same pure value as with some of the other top studs. The matchup vs. the Thunder is also as tough as it gets, so he’s not a priority pay-up target for me on Wednesday.
Value
One way for the Thunder to combat Jokic is more minutes for Isaiah Hartenstein. Holmgren simply doesn’t have the beef to match with him on the interior. Like Holmgren, Hartenstein struggled with foul trouble in Game 1, which limited him to just under 29 minutes.
Hartenstein could be asked to play a bit more if he can stay out of foul trouble in Game 2. He’s currently projected for just 28 minutes in our NBA Models, but that could be conservative. Regardless, Hartenstein has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so expect him to make the most out of whatever minutes he gets.
Fast Break
Kristaps Porzingis exited Game 1 early with an illness, but he’s probable to suit up on Wednesday. That makes him a strong buy-low candidate. Porzingis is a fantastic per-minute producer when on the floor, and he’s down to just $6,100 for Game 2. His price tag comes with a position-best 96% Bargain Rating.
Karl-Anthony Towns has also seen a significant price decrease heading into Game 2. His production has been lacking during the postseason, but he ranks second at the position with 11 Pro Trends. He’s one of the most gifted offensive big men in NBA history, so he’s certainly capable of snapping out of his funk.
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Pictured: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Photo Credit: Getty Images
