On Saturday night, the Eastern Conference Finals continue in Indianapolis at Gainbridge Fieldhouse where the Pacers host the Knicks. If the Pacers win, they’ll close out the series and advance to the NBA Finals against the Thunder, but the Knicks have other plans and will look to force a Game 7 back at Madison Square Garden with a win on Saturday. Game 6 tips off at 8:00 p.m. ET and provides another opportunity for everyone to enter DFS fantasy basketball Showdown contests on DraftKings.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
The FantasyLabs projections have Tyrese Haliburton and Jalen Brunson almost exactly even in terms of ceiling, median, and floor projections. Haliburton is a little bit cheaper and has a slightly higher ceiling projection, but Brunson has the higher median projection.
This season, we’ve been excited about our partnership with ShotQuality, and in the ShotQuality projections, Brunson has a higher ceiling, median, and floor projection than every other player on the slate, but Haliburton has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the board. Ultimately, both are outstanding plays as the focal points of their team’s offenses.
Personally, I lean toward Haliburton at home and think the Pacers will do enough to close out the Knicks in a close game. Haliburton had a miserable Game 5, but before that, he exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight playoff games. His last home game was a masterclass of 32 points, 15 assists, 12 rebounds, and 84.5 DraftKings points. On top of those impressive numbers, he didn’t have a single turnover.
He didn’t have a turnover in Game 5 either but only managed eight points, six assists, and two rebounds. Back at home, I think he’ll turn it back up and get his team to the NBA Finals.
Brunson is also a very strong play and has been a little more consistent than Hali. Brunson stepped up with 32 points and 48.25 DraftKings points in Game 5 on the brink of elimination and has over 45 DraftKings points in four of the five games in this series.
In the playoffs, Brunson has averaged 46.7 DraftKings points per game on a 33.0% usage rate. He has proven to be clutch in every way all season long, and the Knicks will need another big game from him on Saturday to keep their season alive once again.
Brunson will get some help from Karl-Anthony Towns, who has averaged 41.2 DraftKings points per game. He has the third-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections in both sets of projections for this game. KAT has four double-doubles in the five games in this series, exceeding salary-based expectations and posting over 44 DraftKings points per game in each of those four games. He took it to another level back in Game 1 with 60 DraftKings points, but he hasn’t carried that much of the offense in the last few games.
KAT is much more expensive than Pacers’ second option Pascal Siakam. Siakam hasn’t been quite as consistent, but he has also shown a high ceiling in this series. He scored 30 points in the Pacers’ big Game 4 win with 44.25 DraftKings points and wasn’t bad in Game 5 either with 35.5 DraftKings points in 34 minutes.
Siakam is a cheaper alternative to Towns, and he’s easier to include in either a UTIL spot or even as a contrarian Captain if you don’t go with one of the two superstar guards. Both guards will likely be popular but productive Captain plays. I lean toward Haliburton, especially with the extra savings, but both have been excellent plays throughout the postseason.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
In both sets of projections, Myles Turner looks like he’ll be one of the best mid-range plays of the night. The FantasyLabs projections give him the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate, and the ShotQuality projections give him the third-highest behind only Brunson and Haliburton.
Turner had a very disappointing Game 5 with only five points and 15 DraftKings points, but the projections expect him to storm back at home in Game 6. He had 34.5 and 22.75 DraftKings points in the two games in Indiana earlier this series and is averaging 30.3 DraftKings points per game in the postseason.
If you build around Turner at Captain, you can actually include both star guards in UTIL spots if you find good value in the rest of your lineup. If Turner can bounce back with a solid performance, he could be the key to a winning build either as Captain or as a key UTIL play.
Obi Toppin is the only player in this matchup with a higher Projected Plus/Minus than Turner in the FantasyLabs projections, and he comes at a bargain salary of only $3,600. Toppin had a series-high 11 points on Thursday, but his best fantasy game was in Game 1, when he had eight points and 10 boards for 22.5 DraftKings points. He has played at least 18 minutes in four of the five games in the series and has excellent upside at his salary.
With Haliburton having a down night in Game 5, T.J. McConnell stepped up with a series-high 21.75 DraftKings points. McConnell has scored double-digit points in five of his last eight playoff games, contributing in both close contests and in blowouts. He had seven points, five assists, and five rebounds in Game 5 and always brings multi-category potential if he gets minutes.
Andrew Nembhard has been a little overpriced in this series since he’s doing most of his work on the defensive end. Bennedict Mathurin has stepped up to carry more of the offense, with 20 and 23 points in the last two games. He’s boom or bust after scoring zero points in Game 2 and just two points in Game 3, but he does have upside worth a look at his salary.
Aaron Nesmith has been playing through an ankle injury and only managed 16 minutes on Thursday. Before that, the 25-year-old Pacer was making a big impact on the series, with over 23 DraftKings points in each of the first four games of the series, highlighted by a massive 30-point Game 1 that earned him 42.5 DraftKings points. If he’s at full strength, he could take back his playing time from Mathurin and be the difference that pushes the Pacers to the win that moves them to the next round.
On the other side of the matchup in the middle range, the Knicks’ rotation has remained pretty tight overall, with Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and Josh Hart supporting KAT and Brunson. Mitchell Robinson’s move to the starting lineup for the last three games has changed things up in the first quarter, but his overall playing time hasn’t increased very much.
Coming off the bench hasn’t slowed down Hart very much; he has produced nice double-doubles in each of the last two games, earning 26.75 DraftKings points and 34.5 DraftKings points. He had double-digit rebounds in Game 3 but came up short of a double-double since he only had eight points. He is averaging 33.6 DraftKings points per game during the playoffs, which is third-highest on the team behind only Brunson and Towns.
Bridges showed a flair for the dramatic during the regular season and against the Celtics. He has at least 12 points and at least 23 DraftKings points in each game in this series and has shown the ability to go off for monster games if the team calls on him for more usage.
Anunoby’s shot has been a little streakier, but he always logs heavy minutes. He had over 28 DraftKings points in each of the first four games of the series but only went 3-of-14 from the field in Game 5 for 11 points and 22 DraftKings points. Bridges has a higher ceiling and is a little cheaper, but OG’s floor is very strong since he logs so many minutes and turns in good non-scoring numbers.
In the FantasyLabs projections, Bridges has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the team, and Anunoby is also a solid value option. In the ShotQuality projections, Bridges has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the team behind the two stars.
Both sets of projections tip a little toward the Pacers in the middle range but do give Bridges good upside and good value to include in a UTIL spot if you have the salary. Nesmith isn’t on the injury report, and if he’s back to full strength, he will be a very strong mid-range option. Toppin and Turner will also be very strong choices from this mid-range group.
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NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Miles McBride ($2,800): While Toppin is a much more reliable play if you have a little more room in your spending, McBride is the best option under $3,000. He has played 15-to-25 minutes per game but with very low usage. He chips in a few points and stats when he’s on the floor and has shown the ability to get hot from long range when given the opportunity. In this series, he has made exactly one three-pointer in every game but hasn’t reached double-digit points yet.
- Ben Sheppard ($2,400): Sheppard has played similar minutes to McBride and scored a series-high eight points in Game 5 while playing a series-high 22 minutes. He has double-digit DraftKings points in two of his last three games but may go back to his normally smaller role if Nesmith is healthy and the game stays competitive. Since McConnell, Mathurin, and Toppin were covered in the mid-range section, Sheppard is the only Pacers option in the punt picks who gets significant playing time.
- Landry Shamet ($2,000): Shamet has played double-digit minutes in each of the last three games in this series. He hasn’t contributed a ton of points or production yet, but he is getting enough run to be worth noticing at only $2,000.
- Delon Wright ($1,600): Wright has also been getting a little more run over the last three games ahead of Cameron Payne ($1,000). Wright has played at least nine minutes in each game but hasn’t had as many scoring chances as Shamet. He did pass out three assists in his 10 minutes on Thursday to still finish with 7.75 fantasy points despite going scoreless.
