With the Mavericks officially eliminated from playoff contention, it’s time to turn our attention to the NBA draft lottery.
Dallas has two picks in the June 25 draft, one in the first round and a second-round pick that the Celtics hold the rights to swap. After losing to Memphis in the play-in tournament, Dallas’ first-round pick becomes a lottery selection.
Here’s everything you need to know about the draft lottery and the Mavericks’ chances of landing the presumptive No. 1 pick, Duke freshman forward Cooper Flagg.
How to watch
Date: Monday, May 12
Time: TBD
TV: ESPN
What are each team’s lottery odds?
Here’s where the Mavericks’ odds rank in the race for the No. 1 pick, according to Tankathon.com.
| Projected order | Team | Record | Win percentage | No. 1 pick probability | Projected order probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Utah Jazz | 17-65 | .207 | 14.0% | 14.0% |
| 2 | Washington Wizards | 18-64 | .220 | 14.0% | 13.4% |
| 3 | Charlotte Hornets | 19-63 | .232 | 14.0% | 13.4% |
| 4 | New Orleans Pelicans | 21-61 | .256 | 12.5% | 11.5% |
| 5 | Philadelphia 76ers | 24-58 | .293 | 10.5% | 2.2% |
| 6 | Brooklyn Nets | 26-56 | .317 | 9.0% | 8.6% |
| 7 | Toronto Raptors | 30-52 | .366 | 7.5% | 19.7% |
| 8 | San Antonio Spurs | 34-48 | .415 | 6.0% | 34.5% |
| 9 | Phoenix Suns | 36-46 | .439 | 3.8% | 50.7% |
| 10 | Portland Trail Blazers | 36-46 | .439 | 3.7% | 63.4% |
| 11 | Dallas Mavericks | 39-43 | .476 | 1.8% | 77.6% |
| 12 | Chicago Bulls | 39-43 | .476 | 1.7% | 85.2% |
| 13 | Sacramento Kings | 40-42 | .488 | 0.8% | 92.9% |
| 14 | Atlanta Hawks | 40-42 | .488 | 0.7% | 96.6% |
How does the lottery work?
The lottery determines the order of selections for the first 14 picks of the draft. Drawings will be conducted to determine the first four picks, and the rest of the lottery teams will fill positions No. 5-14 in inverse order of their 2022-23 regular season records.
Teams with the three worst regular-season records will each have a 14% chance of winning the lottery’s top pick, and the odds decrease substantially for teams with better records.
What’s the Mavericks’ draft lottery history?
Luck hasn’t been entirely been on the Mavericks’ side when it comes to the NBA draft lottery, but in their most recent appearance in 2023, Dallas received the 10th pick — in line with its 10th-worst record in the NBA — rather than conveying it to New York as final payment for the original Kristaps Porzingis trade in January 2019.
Here’s a rundown of lottery coverage in recent years:
2023
Mavericks keep their pick, miss out on Wembanyama
2019
Mavs miss out on top 5, convey selection to Atlanta to complete Doncic deal
2018
Luka Doncic-Trae Young deal may have finally turned Dallas’ luck around
2017
In Dennis Smith Jr., Mavs hoped for a point guard of the future
2013
The year Dallas passed on Giannis Antetokounmpo
2000
A really, really bad year to have a bunch of picks
1998
The major risk Dallas took with Dirk Nowitzki still on the board
For more Mavericks lottery history, click here.
Find more Mavericks coverage from The Dallas Morning News here.
