The 2025 NBA draft lottery is next week and could change the fortunes of a struggling franchise.
Duke’s Cooper Flagg is the overwhelming favorite to be the No. 1 overall selection, and the lottery will determine which team gets the right to select him.
What follows is a look at the rules for the NBA draft lottery, each team’s odds for the 2025 edition of the event, and an overview of the lottery’s history.
Every NBA team that doesn’t make the postseason is eligible for the lottery. That leaves 14 teams with a chance of landing the top pick in the draft. Each team is assigned odds for landing the top selection in the reverse order of the standings. The teams with the three worst records in the league have the highest odds of receiving the top selection at 14.0%. The odds decrease after that, with the 14th worst record having only a 0.5% chance of getting the top selection.
The default odds are as follows.
|
TEAM |
ODDS |
|---|---|
|
Team 1 |
14.0% |
|
Team 2 |
14.0% |
|
Team 3 |
14.0% |
|
Team 4 |
12.5% |
|
Team 5 |
10.5% |
|
Team 6 |
9.0% |
|
Team 7 |
7.5% |
|
Team 8 |
6.0% |
|
Team 9 |
4.5% |
|
Team 10 |
3.0% |
|
Team 11 |
2.0% |
|
Team 12 |
1.5% |
|
Team 13 |
1.0% |
|
Team 14 |
0.5% |
The 2025 NBA draft lottery odds are set with the worst teams given the highest chance to land the No. 1 selection. This year’s lottery does have a few picks that might be moved. The Philadelphia 76ers will lose their top pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder if it falls outside the top six. The Sacramento Kings also may lose their pick to the Atlanta Hawks if it falls outside the top 12.
On top of those moves, the Houston Rockets will receive the Phoenix Suns’ first-rounder, and the Hawks’ pick will go to the San Antonio Spurs.
With those changes noted, the full lottery odds for the 2025 NBA draft are below.
|
TEAM |
RECORD |
LOTTERY ODDS |
|---|---|---|
|
Utah Jazz |
17-65 |
14.0% |
|
Washington Wizards |
18-64 |
14.0% |
|
Charlotte Hornets |
19-63 |
14.0% |
|
New Orleans Pelicans |
21-61 |
12.5% |
|
Philadelphia 76ers* |
24-58 |
10.5% |
|
Brooklyn Nets |
26-56 |
9.0% |
|
Toronto Raptors |
30-52 |
7.5% |
|
San Antonio Spurs |
34-48 |
6.0% |
|
Phoenix Suns** |
36-46 |
3.8% |
|
Portland Trail Blazers |
36-46 |
3.7% |
|
Dallas Mavericks |
39-43 |
1.8% |
|
Chicago Bulls |
39-43 |
1.7% |
|
Sacramento Kings*** |
40-42 |
0.8% |
|
Atlanta Hawks**** |
40-42 |
0.7% |
*Top six protected, goes to Oklahoma City if No. 7 or below
**To Houston, via Brooklyn
***Top 12 protected, goes to Atlanta if No. 13 or lower
****Traded to San Antonio
The NBA draft lottery began in 1985 as a way to combat perceived tanking by the league’s worst teams in order to obtain the top players entering the draft. The system was implemented to add an element of luck to the process.
The first lottery system involved the random drawing of an envelope from a hopper with each envelope having a team’s name on it. Each team in the lottery therefore had the same odds of landing the top slection. The New York Knicks were the winners of the first lottery in 1985 and subsequently drafted Patrick Ewing with the first selection.
In 1987, the league modified the lottery system so that only the three picks were determined by it. After the top three selections were assigned, the remaining non-playoff teams would select in reverse order of their records.
The envelope system was in use until 1989 when the league switched to a weighted lottery system in 1990. The odds and processes have been modified slightly over the years with the latest change coming in 2019. Now, the league’s three worst teams have equal odds of landing the top pick as a defense against tanking for the top selection.
