From the middle of October through the middle of April, teams have at least some measure of control over where they’ll draft in June. No team can have better odds for the No. 1 overall pick than 14%, but still, you can ensure yourself that 14% shot on lottery night by playing badly enough. The Jazz, Hornets and Wizards just did that. If you try hard enough, you’re almost always going to lose a whole lot of games.
But when lottery night itself arrives? Well, it’s out of your hands at that point. Cooper Flagg’s fate is in the hands of the lottery gods. It’s all just luck. In most cases, luck isn’t quantifiable. But lottery luck? We can actually measure it.
In 2023, ahead of Victor Wembanyama’s lottery night, I went through every lottery in NBA history and measured three forms of success or failure: how many net draft slots were gained or lost through the lottery system (i.e, how many draft slots would they have lost if the lottery hadn’t existed), how many times a team had moved up or down, and how many net draft slots each team gained or lost on average. What I found, at least in one specific case that certainly applies to the 2025 lottery, is that some teams really have been much luckier than others.
So, if our luck tracking holds, where is Flagg headed? The Philadelphia 76ers. By two of our three metrics, the 76ers were far and away the luckiest team in lottery history. In the 40 lotteries the NBA has held so far, the 76ers have gained a preposterous 24 net draft slots thanks to their luck. Only one other team (the Charlotte Hornets at +13) has gained even half as many.
If you’re just looking at the number of times they’ve moved up compared to when they’ve moved down, they win there as well. The 76ers have moved up eight times in their lottery history. They’ve moved down just once. This is critical because if their pick falls by two slots on lottery night, from No. 5 to No. 7 or later, the pick goes to the Oklahoma City Thunder. History, though, suggests that it is not likely. Mathematically, the 76ers have a 64% chance of keeping their pick.
The only team with a better average lottery performance than the 76ers is the Lakers, but they’re not in the mix this year. Among lottery teams this year, nobody touches Philadelphia’s average lottery performance, which is a 1.26-slot jump per lottery.
So, who is in second place? Depends on which metric you’re using. The Hornets have gained the second-most net slots, as we covered above, at 13. However, you wouldn’t really think of them as especially lucky in the lottery because that luck hasn’t led to any sustained success. In our other candidate’s case, it absolutely has.
The San Antonio Spurs have gained nine net draft slots in eight lotteries. That’s an average jump of 1.125, which is appropriate because they never jump up a huge amount. They have never improved their draft pick by more than three slots in a single lottery. However, if you subjectively measure which team has actively benefited the most by the existence of the lottery, it is unquestionably the Spurs. They’ve won three lotteries. They had the worst record in none of those seasons, yet all three of their top picks grew into superstars: David Robinson, Tim Duncan and Victor Wembanyama.
So, holistically, San Antonio is probably the second-luckiest team in this year’s lottery, while Charlotte comes in at No. 3. The Spurs will open the lottery at the No. 8 slot, meaning it would take a luckier jump than they’ve ever had just to reach the top four. Keep in mind, though, that they also control the No. 14 slot, originally from Atlanta, so they have two bites at the apple here. They have just a 6% chance at jumping all the way up for Flagg. The Hornets are in the No. 3 slot, which includes a three-way tie for the best odds at No. 1 of 14%.
So that covers the luckiest teams fighting for Flagg. What about the unluckiest? You won’t be surprised, given the year they just had, to hear that it’s Nico Harrison’s Dallas Mavericks. They enter the lottery at No. 11, and history says that’s where they’re staying because they literally have never moved up in the lottery. Not once. They have a 1.8% shot at Flagg, but if our history here is to be believed, you should trust the 98.2% chance that they don’t get him. Another team to watch out for at the bottom?
The Sacramento Kings are in slot No. 13. However, the Hawks get their pick if it isn’t in the top 12. Mathematically, the Kings already have a meager 3.8% chance of keeping the pick. Their luck isn’t any better. The Kings have moved up in the lottery only three times. They’ve moved down 11 times, tied with Minnesota for the most in NBA history.
But the Kings and Mavericks were unlikely to move up anyway. What about the teams at the top? Well, with apologies to our nation’s capital, the unquestioned answer here would be the Washington Wizards. They have lost seven net draft slots through the lottery system, more than any other non-playoff team in 2025. They’ve moved up three times, but it hasn’t exactly served them well. They used those three picks on Kwame Brown, John Wall and Otto Porter. They’ve moved down nine times, close to the bottom of the league.
Does any of this matter, really? Last year’s lottery suggests it absolutely does not. The Hawks entered the 2024 drawing having lost three net draft slots in their lottery history. They wound up jumping nine spots, the third-biggest jump in lottery history, to get up to No. 1. Now, on the luck rankings, they’re at plus six net slots gained. All it takes is one favorable set of ping pong balls to change everything. We have 40 years of lottery history to work with for now, but it all flies out the window once the festivities begin Monday night.
