There are two days left of the NBA regular season, and with the playoffs just a week away, there’s still so much left to be decided. Most of the teams in the Eastern Conference are locked into their current positions, but the Western Conference is a big mess with only three postseason spots locked up. Teams sitting fourth through eighth have yet to secure a playoff berth, and even more than that, only one game separates all those teams for positioning.
There are many possibilities for playoff positioning, so here’s a — hopefully — digestible way to understand what’s at stake as we enter the final weekend of the NBA season.
Lakers, Knicks can lock up the third seed Friday
This is the easiest thing to understand. If the Lakers and Knicks both win Friday night, they’ll officially lock up the third seed in their respective conferences. The Lakers host the No. 2-seeded Rockets, while the Knicks host the top-seeded Cavaliers. Both will be tough contests, but Cleveland may decide to rest some guys given they have the top seed in the East locked up.
However, Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Max Strus all sat out Thursday night for rest, so perhaps Cleveland will be at full strength against the Knicks. If that’s the case, then it will be a tough battle for New York. Even if the Knicks lose Friday, they’ll have another opportunity to lock up the No. 3 spot on Sunday in what should be an incredibly easy matchup against the Brooklyn Nets. If the Knicks manage to even lose that game, the worst they can finish is fourth.
The Lakers are in a similar position. Win either Friday or Sunday and the third spot is theirs. If they lose out, then they’ll fall to fourth. Basically, the Lakers and Knicks control their own fate with a single win this weekend.
Bucks, Pistons matchups to decide fifth seed in East
How’s this for drama? The Bucks hold a one-game advantage over the Pistons for the No. 5 spot in the Eastern Conference. If Milwaukee wins one of its last two games, it will secure the fifth seed. Sounds easy, right? Except the Bucks play the Pistons twice to end the season this weekend, and if Detroit wins both games, they will take the No. 5 spot from the Bucks. That will be a tall task for the Pistons, especially as the Bucks have been on a six-game winning streak and hold a 2-0 series advantage against Detroit this season.
But a lot is at stake for both teams here. The difference between finishing sixth and fifth is a matchup against the Knicks or Pacers in the first round. Both teams would surely prefer Indiana in that scenario, especially Milwaukee, which is still without All-Star guard Damian Lillard, who has been out indefinitely with a blood clot. Finishing fifth would also avoid a second-round matchup against the defending champion Boston Celtics, which everyone would love to do.
Hawks, Bulls can lock in play-in spots with one win
It’s far less exciting, but the Hawks and Bulls still have something to play for, too. With one win this weekend, Atlanta can lock itself into the No. 8 play-in spot in the East. It has a matchup against the tanking 76ers on Friday, which sounds like a win already, and a potential play-in preview meeting against the Orlando Magic to close out the regular season. If the Hawks win Friday, then the eighth spot is theirs. But there is a disaster scenario in which Atlanta loses both games, which could potentially have them finish as low as 10th, depending on how the Bulls and Heat finish this weekend.
Chicago doesn’t control its own destiny to jump the Hawks, so it would need Atlanta to completely implode, but the Bulls would also need to win both their games against the Wizards and Sixers — definitely doable — to get out of that No. 9 spot. Climbing higher in the standings is always the goal. However, if the Bulls stayed at the No. 9 spot, they would host a play-in game against a Heat team they just beat on April 9. That sounds like a far better matchup than going on the road to play Orlando.
The mess in the West
Outside of the top three seeds in the West, things are complicated entering the last weekend. The Nuggets can finish as high as fourth if they win their last two games. But the Clippers, Warriors, Grizzlies and Timberwolves can also fall anywhere between fourth and eighth. To make it even more dramatic, the Grizzlies and Nuggets play each other on Friday, and the Clippers and Warriors face off on Sunday, which could create absolute mayhem in the standings, depending on the outcome of those games. All those teams will be competing at a high level to get the best position possible entering the playoffs.
Minnesota beating Memphis on Thursday kickstarted the chaos, as the two teams are now even in the standings with the Warriors for the sixth spot.
Kings can clinch No. 9 spot with a win
Further down the West standings are the Kings and Mavericks, two disappointing teams who made two surprising trades at the deadline. Sacramento sent De’Aaron Fox to the Spurs and Dallas traded Luka Doncic to the Lakers. Those trades are not similar at all, and the Mavericks will regret that deal until the end of time, but both teams have spiraled since trading two franchise centerpieces. This weekend, they’ll both be trying to fight for the right to host a play-in game. What a far fall for the Mavericks, who were in the NBA Finals last June.
Sacramento can lock up the ninth spot by winning one of its last two games. Dallas would jump the Kings if Sacramento loses its last two games and the Mavericks win their last two. In all likelihood, the Kings will host the 9/10 game, and from there, who knows the outcome of that matchup? Both teams are playing some pretty dispiriting basketball as of late, as both franchises are just waiting for the summer to come around so they can fade into obscurity until next season starts.
