The Oklahoma City Thunder are the largest NBA Finals favorites (-700 at BetMGM) in their franchise’s history against the Indiana Pacers (+500), but sportsbooks will still be cheering for Oklahoma City when the series tips off Thursday night.
“The Thunder have been our best result just about the entire playoffs,” Halvor Egeland, BetMGM trading manager told Yahoo Sports. “That remains the case and with where the finals pricing is, I can guarantee we’ll be cheering on OKC.”
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Sportsbooks were helped in the futures market tremendously by the Los Angeles Lakers losing in the first round to the Minnesota Timberwolves in five games. The Lakers were BetMGM’s biggest liability “by a decent margin” to win the title, and among those bets was a $100,000 wager on Los Angeles at 10-1 odds that would’ve won $1 million.
The Golden State Warriors, Denver Nuggets, Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics all were potential hazards for sportsbooks — and all were eliminated before the conference finals.
“Our best result is Oklahoma City,” Jeff Sherman, vice president of risk at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook said. “Their odds were low enough all season that liability didn’t accumulate. They were one of our best scenarios going into the playoffs, and we do very well on them.”
Indeed, the Thunder’s longest odds came before the season, when they were 10-1 to win it all at BetMGM for three total days last June. Oklahoma City was a +185 favorite entering the postseason and -175 entering the conference finals against the Timberwolves. The Thunder at -700 are tied for the seventh-biggest favorite in the NBA Finals since 1968, according to Sports Odds History.
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The Pacers, on the other hand, opened as a long shot with 50-1 odds, and those odds got as high as 150-1 in March. Even entering the playoffs, Indiana was 80-1 to win the title, and the Pacers didn’t get into single digits until before the conference finals against the New York Knicks, when they were +800 to win the title. Indiana wasn’t even the favorite (+135) in its series against New York.
“Many bettors have backed the Pacers during a playoff run that includes taking down the top-seeded Cavs and the high-profile Knicks with multiple dramatic comebacks,” Adrian Horton, director of North American sports trading for ESPN Bet, said. “Given their relatively long price compared to OKC, who have taken care of business as a 1-seed, it’s the Pacers who are our bigger liability today.”
BetMGM told Yahoo Sports there are “a couple” of Pacers futures wagers with a chance to win six figures at 125-1 odds. Sherman said Westgate took a $400 wager on Indiana at 150-1 in mid-February, along with two $200 wagers at that price, making Indiana a “small liability.”
Not many bettors were backing Indiana down the stretch of the regular season, despite the Pacers now sporting a record of 46-18 since Jan. 1.
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“Certainly for the Eastern Conference futures, having the Pacers come through was a huge win,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City (a BetMGM book) noted. “We had liability on both the Knicks and Celtics and were pretty much break even on the Cavs. The Pacers were pretty much ignored in the futures all year.”
Likely due to the big potential payout, bettors have been backing Indiana to beat Oklahoma City, with a staggering 92% of the bets and 91% of the total dollars wagered so far on the Pacers to win the finals. If the Pacers pull off the stunner, it would be the biggest NBA Finals upset since 2004 when the Detroit Pistons (+500) beat the Los Angeles Lakers in five games.
Game 1 tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET Thursday on ABC. The Thunder are 9.5-point favorites, with the total at 230.5.
