What the Thunder need to do to win
The Thunder’s path to victory is to continue to be the most fearsome defensive unit we’ve seen in recent years. They play an uber-aggressive, hyper-switchable form of defense that has suffocated opponents all year long. It means they give up a lot of fouls, but they also get away with a bunch and force turnovers more than anyone else in the league. Keep that up and, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander getting his customary 32 points a night, they won’t be stopped. Ryan Baldi
It may sound overly simplistic to say make shots, but if Oklahoma City don’t end up hoisting the trophy when all is said and done, it will be because they, quite frankly, did not. They are the better team by every metric, with the better best player, better defense, and home court advantage. But their jump shot has been their only achilles. If shots fall, so will the confetti when all is said and done. Claire de Lune
Set the tempo and harry Tyrese Haliburton. OKC thrive on dictating pace and forcing turnovers, the sort of pressure that Indiana’s disciplined offense has yet to face at this intensity in the postseason. With waves of defenders like Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace swarming the ball on the perimeter and inside, the Thunder can derail the Pacers’ rhythm, cool their three-point barrage and win the possession battle. If they do that, SGA will take care of the rest. Bryan Armen Graham
Play their game and take the Pacers out of theirs. The Thunder thrive in transition. If they can shut down Halliburton and Pascal Siakam and turn those defensive stops into easy buckets, they control the series. Their roster is so deep, so talented, so high-energy and so well-coached that you wonder if anything short of an act of god will deny them in their quest for the franchise’s second championship. Andrew Lawrence
What the Pacers need to do to win
They need to keep playing fast and take care of the ball. It’s something they are remarkably good at: they have the third-lowest turnover rate in the league. But they’re up against a turnover juggernaut and an outstanding transition defense. This could be an irresistible-force-v-immovable-object type of deal. RB
While they’re an indisputably great team, Pacers are, in many ways, a lesser version of their finals adversary, the Thunder. To win it all, their best players are going to have to bring it. They need sensational star performances from Siakam and Haliburton, and they need them nightly. That, and to not turn the ball over. That’s something they’re typically fantastic at, but that the Thunder are even more fantastic at disrupting. CDL
Keep the ball moving and keep their composure. Indiana lead the playoffs in three-point shooting percentage and rarely turn the ball over: two trends need to preserve under OKC’s relentless pressure. Haliburton’s turnover-averse style will be tested like never before. If the Pacers can maintain their pace and exploit mismatches when the Thunder go small, Siakam’s versatility could help tilt the series in their favor. BAG
Get boards, something they struggled to do all season and could well struggle to do again against the Thunder’s foreboding frontline. But if Siakam, Turner, Isaiah Jackson and Benedict Mathurin are willing to get scrappy in the paint, they might find that they actually have a toughness advantage over Oklahoma City’s “tall” men. AL
Is having two small-market teams in the NBA finals a problem?
Give Adam Silver a dose of truth serum and I’m sure he’ll tell you he was rooting for the Knicks to get to the finals. This one probably isn’t going to break any viewership records. But it is a fascinating match-up between two unique teams with a star of the league on either side. What’s not to love? RB
There’s this weird, very online plague of the “Couch GM” that seems to be constantly preoccupied with NBA ratings, as if they directly affect their own lives in any meaningful way. The truth is, they don’t even affect the NBA itself much: a new $76bn television rights deal was just negotiated and expansion is coming. The league will be just fine, even if the casual fan doesn’t find an Indianapolis v Oklahoma City final scintillating. True basketball diehards know this should be a wildly entertaining series. CDL
Only if you think TV ratings matter more than basketball. This is a stylistic dream matchup between two fearless, homegrown teams. The NBA should celebrate franchises that built smartly and play joyfully. This series is a vindication of substance over star-chasing. BAG
Only for the small-minded. Indiana have an NBA pedigree and a state basketball lore that would make for an epic underdog story and a great redemption story for Rick Carlisle, who may well have won his lone NBA title in his first stint with the Pacers if the Malice at the Palace hadn’t happened. As for Oklahoma City, they certainly didn’t have trouble attracting a crowd when Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden were leading the championship charge. (Sure, they were facing the Heatles, but still.) Even old-timers like me, who still feel like this slickly run operation should be in Seattle, won’t be able to stay away just because we’ve been invested in this story for too long and need to see where it ends. AL
The coaching advantage goes to …
Mark Daigneault was Coach of the Year in 2024 and probably should have won it again this year. But Rick Carlisle is a former Coach of the Year, too. And although his award came more than two decades ago, his work in Indiana has proven he remains one of the league’s best. And Carlisle has one thing that Daigneault does not: championship experience. The edge goes to the old guy. RB
This one is actually a push. Carlisle obviously has the more storied resumé and the championship pedigree, but Daigneault’s Coach of the Year win last season was well deserved: he’s done a bang-up job of getting the youngest roster in the NBA to buy into the egoless, defense-driven identity that made them a 68-win team on the doorstep of a championship. CDL
Mark Daigneault, just. Carlisle may have the best total body of work of any coach that’s not in the Hall of Fame (yet), but Daigneault’s adaptability and calm control have guided OKC’s young core beyond expectations. He’s leaned into their defensive versatility and late-game composure: two areas that could tilt the margins in a long series. BAG
Mark Daigneault. He who has the most best players has the advantage. AL
Unheralded player to watch
Aaron Nesmith came into the league with a reputation as a deadly three-point shooter, only for his shooting to desert him in his first stop in Boston. With the Pacers, he’s reinvented himself as a lockdown wing defender who plays with OKC-like intensity. And he came make shots now, too. RB
Andrew Nembhard, the third year guard out of Gonzaga, is probably a name with which the average NBA fan is unfamiliar. But if the Pacers are able to pull off a shocking upset in this series, it will almost certainly be, in part, due to Nembhard’s key contributions on the defensive end. The defensive pest had Jalen Brunson in the seventh circle of hell in the Eastern Conference finals, and he’ll need to bring the same pressure against Gilgeous-Alexander for Indiana to have a chance in this series. CDL
Jalen Williams. Everyone talks about his defense and playmaking, but he’s due for a scoring breakout. With Indiana selling out on SGA, Williams will feast on open threes and scrambled closeouts. If he starts hitting at his usual clip (38.2% career from deep), OKC’s offense becomes near unguardable. BAG
Alex Caruso. Talk about a man who contains multitudes: Caruso doesn’t just keep the OKC offense on pace when SGA is out of the game while providing elite defense. (His shackling of Nikola Jokić helped the Thunder pip Denver in the West semi-finals.) He’s the veteran in the Thunder huddle with championship experience, winning his ring with LeBron’s Lakers inside the Covid bubble in 2020. If at any point the young Thunder begin to doubt themselves, the Carushow will be where they turn to for succor. AL
The finals MVP will be …
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. It’s the consistency. The foul-baiting can be grating but it’s impossible not to admire how SGA appears to have figured out the game of basketball over the last couple of seasons. He has his spots and he knows exactly how to get to them. It’s also nice to see a masterful offensive guard who isn’t a complete zero on the other side of the ball. RB
It is rare for a player to win both regular season and NBA finals MVP in the same season; it’s only happened 15 times in league history. But Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the slinky, shifty guard with shades of Allen Iverson and Kobe Bryant in his deep bag, is about to do it. While Oklahoma City have a deep team, and both Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren have gotten shine this postseason, if they win it all, it will be on the back of Gilgeous-Alexander, and he’ll get rewarded accordingly. CDL
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He’s been the steadiest closer in the playoffs, turning midrange mastery and calm isolation into winning basketball. If Oklahoma City win the title, it will be because SGA took over in crunch time and made the leap from All-NBA to undeniable superstar. BAG
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He’s been dominant all season, and his playoff level has yet to drop. In his two regular-season games against Indiana, he averaged 39 points (on 56% shooting), seven boards and eight assists against one turnover – total. Put simply: this is his year, and he won’t be denied. AL
Your winner will be …
Thunder in five. They’ve been utterly dominant all season. That’s mostly been the case for the playoffs too, allowing for some Jokić magic in the second round. The Pacers have been a ton of fun to watch, have impressive depth and a rising star in Haliburton. But the Thunder are deeper, more talented and have the best player in the series – that’s a recipe for a gentleman’s sweep. RB
Thunder in five. If the Pacers had drawn literally any other Western Conference foe, I would give them a better chance in this series. But unfortunately for Indiana, they drew, in my estimation, the far better version of themselves. Indiana is great at forcing turnovers: Oklahoma City do that better. Indiana take great care of the ball: OKC even moreso. The Thunder have the MVP, the better defense, the better bench. They have been the best team in the league at home this season, and they have home-court advantage in this series. While the Pacers’ run to the finals has been impressive all the way, and I see them winning a game, I think the Thunder will make relatively quick work of them en route to a Larry O’Brien. CDL
Pacers in seven. I picked the Thunder at the start of the playoffs (flex) and my inner Dean Oliver is still inclined to think their historically good metrics will see them through. But management wants someone to make the case for Indiana so here we go. The Pacers’ blistering pace, surgical ball movement and deep rotation give them a real shot at disrupting Oklahoma City’s rhythm. Haliburton’s vision fuels an attractive, crowd-pleasing offense that doesn’t rely on isolation or volume threes. If they can turn it into a track meet while taking care of the ball like they have all year, Indiana’s chaos could outlast OKC’s control. BAG
Thunder in five. Again: they’re loaded, high-energy, extremely well-coached and hungry as hell. Denver needed the world’s best player to take OKC to seven games. While the Pacers have their virtues, and a bona fide go-to guy in Halliburton, they don’t have enough to stop a team that seems like it has been on an inexorable march toward a championship since the season tipped off in October. For me, the question isn’t if Thunder will win, but whether GM Sam Presti can keep this squad together long enough to make a dynastic run for the ages. AL
