2025 NBA Awards Predictions: Betting Favorites or the Field
Can MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win his first MVP or will Jokic upset the favorite and win his fourth?
NBA teams are down to the final week-and-a-half of the regular season to make their respective playoff pushes.
And for teams lumped in or near the play-in window, that means the margins for error are shrinking. Still, with most teams having six or seven games remaining on their schedules, there could still be plenty of movement in the standings, particularly in the Western Conference, where four teams, the Warriors, Grizzlies, Timberwolves and Clippers — the five-through-eight seeds — are separated by just a single game.
USA TODAY Sports separated NBA bubble teams into three tiers in terms of their likelihood of making the playoffs — less likely, likely and more likely — and the things each team must do to get there.
(Stats and results are through Tuesday’s games)
Less likely
Chicago Bulls (34-42): They’ve been playing some of their best basketball in recent weeks and it appears as though we’re headed for a third consecutive Heat-Bulls matchup in the play-in. Chicago lost each of the previous two play-in games against Miami. Chicago must keep its recent offensive efficiency, with Josh Giddey running point guard and creating chances for Coby White and others.
Atlanta Hawks (36-39): This is an interesting scenario. The Hawks will almost certainly face the Magic in the first play-in game. Atlanta and Orlando have split the pair of games both have played thus far, but they will see each other twice in the final week of the regular season. Meaning there’s a high probability they will see each other three times in a week. While the Hawks have played well at times this season, their weaknesses on defense compromise their chance at success if their normally-hot shooting falters.
Likely
Orlando Magic (37-40): That’s why the Magic get the slight edge here. If indeed Orlando faces the Hawks in the play-in, one victory gets the Magic through to the playoffs. Orlando has been the better team down the stretch, although they do record the occasional offensive clunker.
Miami Heat (34-41): Their five-game winning streak snapped a 10-game losing streak and came mostly against teams completely out of the playoff picture. All season long, the Heat have failed to play up to contenders, going 9-26 (.257) against squads .500 or better, and they’ve struggled to finish games in the fourth quarter. None of the teams Miami would face in the play-in, however, are teams with winning records and the Heat has plenty of experience in the play-in tournament. A deep postseason run, though, appears unlikely.
More likely
Milwaukee Bucks (41-34): They’re in the sixth seed and a solid five games ahead of the Magic, but the Bucks have lost six of their last nine. They haven’t figured out their offensive rhythm with Damian Lillard (deep vein thrombosis) sidelined, so the Bucks need Kyle Kuzma and Bobby Portis (eligible to return from suspension April 8) to step up. Milwaukee, ranked 25th in defensive rating (119.5) over the last nine games, must also defend far better. The good news? Milwaukee has the NBA’s sixth-easiest remaining schedule, per tankathon.com.
Less likely
Phoenix Suns (35-41): Even if Phoenix, currently 1 ½ games back of the 10-seed, sneaks into the play-in picture and wins the first game, it would almost certainly have to face one of the Timberwolves, Clippers, Grizzlies or Warriors — all superior, more consistent teams — in the second game of the tournament. Losers of four in a row, the Suns have an atrocious defensive rating in that span of 137.0. The Suns also have the NBA’s toughest remaining strength of schedule (.618), per tankathon.com.
Sacramento Kings (36-39): The Kings have won just one game in their last six and have extreme difficulties playing perimeter defense. And, all the potential opponents the Kings would like face, mentioned in the entry above, are at least solid in 3-point shooting percentage.
Dallas Mavericks (37-39): It’s hard to see the Mavericks, even with Anthony Davis back, getting past the play-in. They sorely miss Kyrie Irving, and the team’s shot creation and offensive rhythm can often stagnate. Simply put: Dallas will need Anthony Davis to carry the team.
Likely
Memphis Grizzlies (44-32): Losing Tuesday night to the Warriors hurt their chances some, though the Grizzlies remain in the No. 6 spot — for now. Yet, Memphis is 2-8 over its last 10 and has lost four consecutive. As always with this fast-paced, up-tempo team, the priority is enacting some element of control and limiting turnovers; Memphis ranks 28th in the NBA in turnovers per game (15.8). Ja Morant, in particular, needs to slow things down a touch, as his six giveaways Wednesday against Golden State proved to be costly.
More likely
Los Angeles Clippers (43-32): There’s a significant drop off after the No. 8 seed in the West, currently occupied by Los Angeles. The Clippers are currently 6 ½ games up on the ninth-place Mavericks. The real battle is to determine which two teams will occupy the fifth and sixth seeds — the automatic playoff berths. The Warriors, Grizzlies, Timberwolves and Clippers are separated by just one game. It’s difficult to see a playoff picture without each of those four teams. Los Angeles, though, will need continued health and availability from Kawhi Leonard.
Golden State Warriors (44-31): With their win Tuesday against the Grizzlies, the Warriors secured a massive tiebreaker over Memphis. The Warriors are 19-5 since trading for Jimmy Butler, even though the competition in that span has not been the strongest. As a two-game absence of Steph Curry last week showed, Golden State’s offense cannot function without its star player; the Warriors must continue to do whatever they can to keep Curry, 37, fresh.
Minnesota Timberwolves (44-32): A massive victory on the road Tuesday night against the Nuggets sets up the Timberwolves nicely down this final stretch, where they play the easiest remaining schedule (.382), according to tankathon.com. As teams continue to throw double-teams at Anthony Edwards, Minnesota must find ways to get other scorers involved.
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