The fifth-seeded LA Clippers and the fourth-seeded Denver Nuggets open a best-of-7 first-round playoff series Saturday. Tip-off from Ball Arena is set for 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Clippers vs. Nuggets odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.
Regular-season series: Split 2-2
The Clippers closed the regular season on a high note, edging the Golden State Warriors 124-119 in OT Sunday to lock up the No. 5 seed over the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Warriors. They covered as 3.5-point road underdogs, with the Over (218) also hitting. F Kawhi Leonard and G James Harden have been balling as of late — Leonard is averaging 25.5 points on 62% true shooting over his last 20 games, while Harden has posted 25 points, 6 rebounds, and 9 assists per game across his last 30.
The Nuggets closed out the regular season with a dominant 126-111 win at the Houston Rockets Sunday, covering as 5.5-point favorites with the Over (234.5) cashing. The win secured home-court advantage in the first round for Denver, which enters the playoffs on a 3-game winning streak. C Nikola Jokic has been unstoppable all year, averaging 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 10.2 assists per game — becoming the first player in NBA history to finish top 3 in all 3 categories over a full season.
These teams haven’t faced off since Jan. 8, and with Denver coach Michael Malone dismissed April 8, less than 2 weeks ago, expect the Nuggets to look different than they did in the 4 regular-season meetings.
Clippers at Nuggets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 9:30 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Clippers +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Nuggets -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Clippers +2.5 (-115) | Nuggets -2.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 223.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Clippers at Nuggets key injuries
Clippers
Nuggets
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
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Clippers at Nuggets picks and predictions
Prediction
Clippers 117, Nuggets 110
PASS.
I lean slightly toward the Clippers to pull off the upset as +115 underdogs, largely due to the potential locker room turmoil following Denver’s surprising decision to part ways with Malone. That said, LA feels like a safer play ATS, and I generally avoid doubling down on both the ML and spread for the same team. Of course, betting against Jokic in the playoffs is always a gamble — he’s the best player in the world for a reason.
PASS. Bet the spread and/or total instead.
BET CLIPPERS +2.5 (-115).
LA has covered the spread in 7 of its last 10 games, while the Nuggets are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10. The Clippers are also 4-2 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
No team has defended Jokic better than the Clippers, who’ve forced him into 4.7 turnovers per game — his most against any opponent. That success stems largely from the strength and defensive prowess of C Ivica Zubac, along with the defensive scheme from coach Tyronn Lue.
LEAN OVER 223.5 (-115).
The Over has hit in 3 of Denver’s last 4 games and finished 48-33-1 for the Nuggets in the regular season. For LA, the Over is 4-1 in its last 5 games. The Over has also hit in 2 of the last 3 meetings.
This is just a lean because of the Clippers’ ability to disrupt much of what Denver does offensively. Expect them to force Jokic to operate more from the perimeter while limiting the impact of his supporting cast. Defensive-minded players like G Kris Dunn are capable of making things difficult for Nuggets G Jamal Murray and others.
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