NBA Playoffs picks, odds, how to watch Saturday: Clippers, Warriors host swing games

We’ve got another full weekend slate of postseason basketball, with four series taking us from the early afternoon into last call. The No. 1 seeds (Oklahoma City Thunder, Cleveland Cavaliers) are in action on the road. Nikola Jokić and his Denver Nuggets play backs-to-the-wall (and The Wall, specifically) against Kawhi Leonard’s LA Clippers.

Our closeout for the night is Game 3 between the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors. That series has been a 2000s-style grinder thus far, with a few Stephen Curry long-range remixes to stay fresh.

“Saturday, when these [Round 1 games] are open-ended” … except for Thunder-Grizzlies, because that feels like a closed case. Our apologies to the beautiful spirits in Memphis.

Viewing guide for Saturday

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Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat

Cavaliers lead series 2-0

Series odds: Cavaliers -10000, Heat +5000

The steamrolling Cavs glide down to South Beach, where they’ll once again be sizable favorites to beat the Heat. Cleveland is generating great looks and inspired ball movement, with its five leading scorers each above 50/40 shooting splits so far. Donovan Mitchell wholly took over Wednesday’s fourth quarter, and he’s now dropped an even 30-piece in back-to-back games. The offense also posted an identical 121 points in the two games. Maybe this is a broken piece of code, exposing the matrix of hidden realities within our basketball world. Maybe this team is very good and consistent. Who is to say?

Tyler Herro led Miami with 33 points in Game 2. Davion Mitchell continues a career regeneration — the ninth overall pick in 2021 has a career average of 7.6 points per game and was jettisoned out of Sacramento, but he saved the Heat during the Play-In and has scored 18 in both Games 1 and 2. Wait, another duplicate … we must disconnect from the mainframe.

With nothing to lose and one of basketball’s best strategists on the sideline, Miami’s Jenga board rotation might make some tweaks back in its own building.

Best playoff performer for both teams: LeBron James tossed the pregame chalk for each franchise in a combined nine Finals. He won back-to-back rings with the Heat in 2012 and 2013, and delivered the Cavs’ first-ever championship in ’16.

Expert picks

Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies

Thunder leads series 3-0

Series odds: Thunder off the board, Grizzlies +10000

The world-beating, Great Plains-rattling Thunder were somehow down by 26 at the break Thursday. Ja Morant crumbled to the floor right before the halftime buzzer, and boom — OKC quickly rerouted for a historic comeback in Memphis’ gym.

The Thunder have claimed the first three games even with presumed MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at unrecognizable splits (35.3 percent from the field and 25 percent on 3s).

These Grizzlies are overextended after such a strange season, but still … how can anyone stop such a balanced powerhouse? With SGA in a micro-slump, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are balling out, combining to average almost 45 points with a full three blocks. Alex Caruso had three steals off the bench in Game 2 and another four on Thursday night.

The status of Morant (hip) remains uncertain. Desmond Bane had a fantastic year, but he’s been fully disoriented against an unforgiving defense. He’ll need to go superhuman if the hosts are to avoid a sweep.

Single-game playoff scoring records: Morant set Memphis’ franchise high with 47 points in 2021, then matched that mark two years later. Russell Westbrook still holds the OKC record after a 51-point burst at Houston in 2017.

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Denver Nuggets at LA Clippers

Clippers lead series 2-1

Series odds: Clippers -400, Nuggets +310

Game 1 went down to the wire in overtime. Game 2 was more one-possession, super-close cinema. And Game 3 … really got out of hand fast.

LA whittled down the Nuggets to a 34-point humiliation Thursday, burying 18-of-39 from long distance and exposing the limitations of all non-Nikola Jokić parties. Six different Clippers hit double-figure scoring. Ivica Zubac looks so, so very comfortable in the paint. Kawhi Leonard’s Game 2 gem should be preserved for all eternity. While interim head coach David Adelman looks for answers in a pressurized situation, stead-as-ever Ty Lue has his Clips playing with composure and patience.

If the Nuggets are to turn it around, they’ll have to mount something bigger on defense. Denver took Game 1 after forcing 20 turnovers and winning on the boards. LA has been fantastic in their new Inglewood digs, improving to 31-11 at home after Thursday’s W.

Best playoff performer for both teams: DeAndre Jordan (nine postseasons, a championship with Denver and the league’s all-time leader in playoff field goal percentage).

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Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors

Series tied 1-1

Series odds: Warriors -165, Rockets +140

Two games in and these two teams have one combined 100-point effort. A stingy series flow makes sense for both sides — Ime Udoka’s Rockets thrived in tense, low-scoring bruisers all season, and Steve Kerr’s Warriors have the top-line championship mettle to win a staredown.

Houston needs an uninhibited Alperen Şengün to get it done on the road, but it’s a delicate balancing act. His five turnovers mired otherwise gorgeous offense in the Game 1 loss. Similarly, Jalen Green will have to stay aggressive after making 8-of-18 3s last time. The team certainly needs more from Fred VanVleet, a gutsy playoff star who swung upsets back in his “bet on yourself” days. VanVleet’s 22.2/15 percent shooting splits are just about impossible to win with.

Playoff Stephen Curry and antagonist Draymond Green are in the archetypal roles we all know from the past decade. Golden State Jimmy Butler is a new development, though, and his availability (or lack thereof) for Saturday could tip the scales. Butler has willed far lesser teams to success, from the depths of the Play-In to the edge of the mountaintop.

The Warriors have shown flashes of Finals-level brilliance since their trade deadline blockbuster. The Rockets are one of the NBA’s premier overachievers and have a radiant future. Game 3 offers sliding-door power and Saturday night hype.

Single-game playoff scoring records: Hakeem Olajuwon put up 49 points in a 1987 series against the Seattle SuperSonics. Wilt Chamberlain notched an absurd 56 back when the franchise was the Philadelphia Warriors.

Expert picks

On this day in playoff history:

• 10 years ago — Chris Paul has 34 points and seven assists to lead the “Lob City” Clippers past Kawhi Leonard, Tim Duncan and the Spurs.
• 25 years ago — Charles Oakley gets a Madison Square Garden playoff run … as a Raptor? Weird! The Knicks win, 84-83.
• 40 years ago — Rookie Michael Jordan shoots 6-for-16 and his Bulls fall to Terry Cummings’ Bucks. The teams combined for 43 turnovers and one made 3.

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(Photo of Draymond Green and Dillon Brooks: Tim Warner / Getty Images)

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