The Western Conference finally has its full field for the NBA Playoffs, and we are set for a ridiculously competitive first round. Even though your Dallas Mavericks are not going to be able to repeat their run to the NBA Finals, Luka Doncic has the chance to get back there! The Thunder, the best regular season team since the 73-win Golden State Warriors, stand firmly as the favorites. However, most every series during these playoffs have the chance to be great.
From the first round through the NBA Finals, David and I will have you covered, as we preview each series by giving our analysis and picks. Up next, it’s round one in the West.
#1 OKC Thunder vs #8 Memphis Grizzlies
Series winner: OKC (-1800) Memphis (+900)
Tyler’s pick: Thunder in 4
BREAKING: The best team in the NBA this whole year is really damn good.
Series props:
- Thunder sweep (+165)
The Thunder beat Memphis all four times this season. Lets go ahead and make it eight. Pack ‘em up and send ‘em home!
David’s pick: Thunder in 7
The Thunder just finished one of the most dominant regular seasons no one is talking about. They won 54 games by double-digits and had the best point differential in NBA history, and yet I still will believe it when I see it. This series has “sneaky competition” written all over it. It feels like one of those mid-2010s Thunder-Grizzlies matchups, and I think Memphis will give the Thunder a wake-up call. Despite this, I still see Oklahoma City eeking out a win in an action-packed seven-game series.
Series props:
- Grizzlies +2.5 games (+240)
- Grizzlies to win game 1/Thunder to win series (+600)
I like the Grizzlies’ chances to jump on OKC early. They just played a great game against Dallas and can ride that momentum. Memphis will push this series to at least six games.
#4 Denver Nuggets vs #5 Los Angeles Clippers
Series winner: Denver (-110) Los Angeles (-110)
Series spread: Denver -1.5 (+200) Los Angeles (-250)
Tyler’s pick: Clippers in 6
When you look at the Nuggets lately, everything is just off. The coach and GM being fired is only the beginning of that. And while David Adelman is widely respected in the industry, a first-time head coach going against Ty Lue is just not a fair fight. With Kawhi Leonard healthy for the time being, the Clippers are whole and looking like the second-best team in the conference. Look for Zubac and Harden to really take advantage of Denver’s pick and roll defense to put the finishing touches on this one.
Series props
- Clippers to win in exactly 6 games (+340)
- Nikola Jokic series assist leader (+105)
The Jokic prop market is interesting, as he’s one of the top two favorites to lead the series in points, rebounds and assists. I’d take a shot on parlaying him to lead each statistical category, if your chosen sportsbook will allow it. If not, I think assists is a great market due to value.
David’s pick: Clippers in 7
This is my favorite series in the first round. It is decorated with storylines: the James Harden renaissance, the dominance of Nikola Jokic, and the prospect of a healthy Kawhi Leonard, to name a few. Everything about these two teams entices me. The Clippers have been a juggernaut for a month and a half now. Since March 1, they have the third-best offensive rating (121.9), fifth-best defensive rating (110.2), and second-best net rating (11.7). On the flip side, Denver has the best player in the world. It should be a chess match that ends with the better team winning, not the better player. Los Angeles gets the nod in seven games.
Series props
- Jamal Murray to average 25+ PPG (+1200)
- Clippers to win (-110)
- Series to go 7 games (+190)
Murray is a playoff riser, this is an excellent flyer on a guy who averages 24 points a game in his playoff career. The Clippers will win in seven games, so taking this exact outcome in two separate plays but maintaining a level of hedge (Nuggets in seven, Clippers in less than seven) backs that up.
Series winner: Los Angeles (-195) Minnesota (+160)
Series spread: Los Angeles -1.5 (+115) Minnesota (-140)
Tyler’s pick: Lakers in 7
There’s no doubt that Luka is going to get his numbers in this series. The Wolves perimeter defenders, while fantastic, do not have the facilities to body Luka. Doncic versus Rudy Gobert is also not a fair fight. However, the Lakers don’t have a great answer for Anthony Edwards, either. JJ Redick has shown a willingness to send blitzes regularly, and Edwards is blitzed at one of the highest rates in the NBA. Do I fully trust the Lakers in rotation against a Wolves team that is not afraid to let it fly? Not really.
The series will come down to the number two and three options for both teams here. For the Lakers, LeBron and Reaves are established good options. Who will the Wolves try to stop the most? For Minnesota, what can Randle provide against a smaller Laker team, and who steps up as the third guy? Is it Naz Reid? Nickeil Alexander-Walker? Donte Divincenzo? The chess match will be fascinating. I think the Lakers escape in a thriller.
Series props:
- Anthony Edwards series assists leader (13/1)
- Luka Doncic series points leader (+100)
- Wolves +1.5 series spread (-140)
With Edwards seeing doubles, I think he’s live here at a really big number to lead the series in assists. The Luka prop is self-explanatory: we know what this man does in big moments. Let’s see it again.
David’s pick: Lakers in 6
When Minnesota traded for Julius Randle, that put them out of contention in my mind. Randle is a known playoff sinker and a detriment to any offensive flow. Not only do I think Randle and Anthony Edwards cannot coexist, but they have drawn the short straw with another matchup against Luka Doncic. Doncic is on a mission, and I am not betting against him in any capacity. The Lakers will take care of Minnesota in six games.
Series props:
- Luka Doncic to average 30+ in round 1 (+175)
- Luka Doncic to lead series in threes (+155)
- Lakers -1.5 games (+115)
All in on Luka Doncic. I love all three of these plays. The value is there, and I think Doncic could blow these numbers and the Timberwolves out in spectacular fashion.
Series winner: Golden State (-190) Houston (+155)
Series spread: Golden State -1.5 (-105) Houston +1.5 (-115)
Tyler’s pick: Rockets in 7
Can we get an over/under number on ejections and technical fouls? This series is going to be an absolute war. The Rockets are the untested team in the Western Conference, and if they lose it’ll be due to that causing the offense to bog down. The Warriors, meanwhile, are the polar opposite. Steph and Draymond Green are about as tested as anyone with their four championships.
Beyond the clash in experience and overall physicality that we’re going to see, the Rockets have been employing a double big lineup with Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams in the frontcourt. The Warriors are going to look to go small as early and as often as possible, with Green at the five. Whoever comes out on top in what style of series we get is going to win it. I don’t love this pick; in fact, I don’t even really like it. But this is a ridiculous line for what I think is a tossup series.
Series props
- Rockets to win the series (+155)
- Steven Adams series rebound leader (45/1)
- Jimmy Butler series points leader (+240)
If the Rockets are going to win this series, it’s because their style of play won out. If that happens, Adams is going to be on the floor a lot in this series against the likes of Kevon Looney and Quinten Post. That is not a fair fight. It’s 45/1 for a reason, but I’ve seen worse!
Dillon Brooks will likely draw Steph Curry, and so who draws Jimmy Butler? Amen Thompson. On the surface, you might think that’s not ideal, but Golden State’s offense encourages so much switching that any Steph/Jimmy action should get a more favorable matchup for Jimmy. As a forgotten man, I think this number is very generous at (+240).
David’s pick: Warriors in 7
This series should be fun. The basketball will be sloppy, the physicality high, and the drama worthy of an Oscar. It is a classic “old school vs new school” matchup, and in this case, I think the old school prevails. The Rockets do not have enough shooting to keep up with the Warriors’ machine, but they have enough defense to keep them in games. Ultimately, experience and shot-making will win out, as the Rockets do not have a go-to guy at the end of games. The Warriors will win a drama-filled game seven to advance.
Series props
- Jalen Green to lead the series in scoring (+550)
- Rockets +1.5 games (-115)
- Series to go seven games (+220)
Jalen Green could emerge as a star in this series and has to be efficient for the Rockets to have a chance. That, paired with the fact that Golden State will spread it around, should give this prop a great chance. Houston will keep it competitive and, since I expect a seven-game affair, taking both that and the Rockets to cover 1.5 games gets you money when it ultimately goes the distance.
