NBA Power Rankings: Houston’s heater, Luka Doncic’s struggles, and more

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Key Question: Will Shai win MVP?

At 62-12, the Thunder are putting the finishing touches on a historically dominant season. They are several games up on Cleveland and have the first overall seed all but clinched. They should be able to seal the deal while sprinkling in some rest games for the regulars.

The only drama now: can Shai Gilgeous-Alexander break Nikola Jokic’s stranglehold on MVP? Nobody can compete with Jokic’s raw box score and on/off numbers, but advanced metrics have them in a dead heat (if not slightly favoring the OKC guard). The scoring is sublime. He’s averaging more points per possession than anyone on better true shooting than Giannis Antetokounmpo. He’s also providing excellent defensive playmaking. Team success is a notable point in SGA’s favor.

Voters will have a hard decision to make.

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Key Question: Are the Cavs swooning or catching their breath?

The Cavs are 5-5 in their last 10 games. They had a few guys miss games, but these are still foes they would’ve blown out in December.

Is this anything to worry about? I doubt it. We’ve seen plenty of contenders limp to the finish line, but beating up on whatever vastly inferior team emerges from the play-in (as long as it’s not Orlando, who can provide a beating themselves) is usually a perfect tune-up to the more serious games. At this point, gunning for the first overall seed is likely a lost cause. As long as Cleveland maintains their health, they should have no problems getting back up to speed before the second round starts.

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Key Question: Can Jaylen Brown get healthy?

Let’s be honest: the Celtics haven’t felt quite as dominant as during their championship run, and the competition around them (at least at the top) will likely enter the postseason stronger and healthier than last season. They’ll need their A-game to beat Cleveland and/or Oklahoma City.

Jaylen Brown’s lingering knee problems have contributed to a subpar March so far (just 18 points per game on 43 percent from the field and 28% from deep). He’s clearly laboring:

Boston, like Cleveland, should have little issue in the first round of the playoffs. Safely ensconced in the second seed, with no hope of catching Cleveland and no fear of falling to three, I wonder how much more of Brown we’ll see this regular season.

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Key Question: Can they keep it up?

The Rockets have won 12 of their last 13 games, and while it’s been almost exclusively against teams that smell like microwaved salmon, it’s hard to be too upset with any winning stretch this significant.

They’re doing it with a well-balanced, egalitarian approach. Certainly, they’ve had big games from individuals like Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun, but the March-long stats don’t show anything wildly unsustainable on the offensive end besides some better-than-usual long-range shooting from several players. It’s been an ensemble effort, aided by some opponents who are more interested in the Rockets winning than in getting a “W” themselves.

With a two-game lead for the second seed, the Rockets are setting themselves up for a solid playoff run. But nothing in the West is guaranteed.

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Key Question: Are the Warriors underrated, and will it even matter?

Since the Jimmy Butler deal was announced, the Warriors have had the fourth-best net rating (+9.8) and record (18-5) in the entire NBA. They’ve also been second in the West.

With Stephen Curry (playing through a pelvic contusion now) on fire and Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green locking down opposing offenses, they may well be favored in any playoff matchup up until the Conference Finals. Then again, they’re barely hanging onto the sixth seed – they might not make it to the playoffs at all.

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Key Question: Jalen Pickett or Julian Strawther?

Julian Strawther went down with an injury in early March, opening the door for Jalen Pickett to make a splash. The second-year player has responded by shooting 40 percent from deep (albeit without having Strawther’s hair trigger), distributing the ball well, and playing solid defense.

While Strawther hasn’t been as accurate as the Nuggets would like, he still commands the respect of the defense as a shooting threat. Coach Michael Malone may cycle between Pickett’s steadiness and Strawther’s streakiness as playoff situations require.

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Key Question: Can Doncic make a two-pointer?

One of the weirdities of the Lakers’ fascinating season has been Luka Doncic’s inability to convert from inside the arc. A career 55 percent shooter on two-pointers, Doncic is making just 46 percent since joining the Lakers. He’s never had a season making less than half.

He’s been averaging nine free-throw attempts since moving to Hollywood, so perhaps I shouldn’t knock this, but Doncic is doing way too much flailing and crying in the midrange:

While he’s always relied upon guile to draw fouls, the balance has tilted too far. The best version of Doncic will patiently bully opponents into submission; the current version is forcing the issue a bit too much.

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Key Question: Can Julius Randle string together a few quality playoff games?

Randle has had a typically up-and-down regular season, stringing together flashes of brilliance interspersed with mopiness and head-scratching decision-making.

But Randle has almost always been a productive overall regular-season player; the playoffs are another story entirely.

Trigger warning for Knicks fans: in Randle’s 15 career playoff games, he’s shot 27 percent from the field and averaged more turnovers (3.9) than assists (3.7). Karl-Anthony Towns, often derided for the same issue, looks like Michael Jordan in comparison.

Randle wasn’t always healthy, and 15 games aren’t a large sample. I might be getting ahead of myself, anyway. A playoff berth is far from guaranteed, as the team is still fighting to avoid the play-in.

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Key Question: Is Tyrese Haliburton back?

A few weeks ago, I wrote an article describing Tyrese Haliburton’s struggles to generate anything inside the arc. Almost since the day I wrote it, however, Haliburton has looked like a new man – or should I say, like a previous version of himself. He’s had just enough burst to get by guys and actually –  gasp! – shoot a layup:

That might not look like much, but he was hovering around a 10 percent share of his field goal attempts at the rim for most of the season. In the last few weeks, that’s cracked 20 percent, further enabling him to spray out to shooters and crack the defense. On paper, Indiana doesn’t look all that threatening, but to me, they’re the clear-cut third-best team in the East.

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Key Question: How does the Mitchell Robinson/Karl-Anthony Towns duo work?

So far, the Robinson/Towns duo has only played 76 non-garbage time possessions together. Hence, the numbers are meaningless (although, hilariously, lineups with those two are in the 100th percentile on offense and 1st percentile on defense. Go figure.). Robinson has been used almost exclusively as the backup center as he ramps up his conditioning and adjusts to game speed.

Versatility trumps almost everything in the playoffs. Coach Tom Thibodeau is many things, but flexible has rarely been one of them. Establishing the Towns at center and the Towns/Robinson double-big lineups as viable options is of utmost importance as we enter the postseason.

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Key Question: What can Tuomas Iisalo do?

The Grizzlies shocked the league by firing Taylor Jenkins with nine games left in the season. It’s likely impossible to completely overhaul schemes this late into the year, but Iisalo will have to find some way to get Memphis out of their tailspin: they’ve been 12th on offense and 20th on defense since February 1st, after ranking fifth and seventh, respectively, up until that point.

Expect to see a little more traditional pick-and-roll in the Ja Morant/Zach Edey minutes.

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Key Question: Can the Pistons sweep their last two regular-season games?

Detroit’s final two games of the season are against Milwaukee. In a highly related note, the Pistons are currently up 1.5 games on Milwaukee for the fifth seed and just 1.5 games back of Indiana’s four-seed. Detroit may have an opportunity for home-court advantage if they win those two games; if Indiana stumbles down the stretch, it might even be a chance for home-court advantage against those very same Bucks!

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Key Question: Can the Clippers score?

Seems like an important question for a playoff team!

The Clippers’ fourth-ranked defense has proven its chops, but the offense has struggled to put up points against quality opponents. Playoff teams will have no problems leaving guys like Derrick Jones Jr. and Kris Dunn to double James Harden. Heck, smart teams have done it in the regular season. This is tremendously disrespectful to Dunn… but we may see a whole lot more of it going forward:

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Key Question: What does Ryan Rollins have in the bag?

Most of the publicity around the Bucks has been negative since their 2-8 start, but Ryan Rollins has been a quiet success story.

Although his playing time has waxed and waned like a midsummer moon, he’s had by far the best season of his young career. In 13 games as a starter, Rollins has averaged 10 points and nearly two steals per game, nailing 40 percent of his triples on respectable volume. The defense, in particular, has been eye-catching. He has a knack for unexpectedly popping up in the passing lanes:

With Damian Lillard almost certainly out for the playoffs, the understudy will be thrust into a starting role on the grandest stage.

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Key Question: Should the Mavericks push for the playoffs?

This is sort of rhetorical; the head knows the answer is no. Ruthless math indicates that the team should be doing its best to nab the highest pick possible, given that much of its future draft capital is out the window.

But the heart! The heart sees this MASH unit of cast-offs and walking wounded going .500 in its last 10 games and wants them to keep fighting the good fight. For what it’s worth, the team is undefeated in four games with Anthony Davis, even as he hasn’t cracked 20 points in his return from injury.

If you don’t love watching Naji Marshall ball out, you are no friend of mine:

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Key Question: (*stares at Lakers’ record*)

One of the underrated parts of the Dejounte Murray/Dyson Daniels deal was the Pelicans’ inclusion of the Lakers’ unprotected first-round pick this season.

Los Angeles has exceeded most people’s expectations this year, but they’re still just 2.5 games up on seventh-place Minnesota. While it would be hard for Los Angeles to drop to seventh, they do have a brutal ending schedule: two games against Houston, two games against OKC (even a resting Thunder team is difficult to beat), matches with the weirdly feisty Mavericks and Trail Blazers, and a bout with Golden State.

It would take a minor miracle, but the Hawks can plausibly end up with a lottery selection from LA this year.

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Key Question: Is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope rounding into form?

Last summer’s ballyhooed free-agent signing, KCP, has been a grotesque disappointment this season. Yeah, the defense has been good, but they signed the 3-and-D superstar for the “3” part – and at 32% from deep on the year, Caldwell-Pope hasn’t delivered.

However, in 13 March games, KCP has knocked in 20 of his 48 three-point attempts. While that volume remains too low (a criticism of Caldwell-Pope dating back to his Denver days), it’s refreshing for Orlando fans to watch somebody consistently knock down triples.

Given the team’s injuries and roster flaws, it’s likely too late to save this season. But if Caldwell-Pope can regain his confidence and carry it over into next season, we might have a whole ‘nother story on our hands.

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Key Question: Do you believe?

The Bulls have been winning plenty of games recently behind giant spikes from Josh Giddey, Coby White, rookie Matas Buzelis, and other March heroes.

It’s always fun to see young guys playing well! But determining how much of Giddey’s play is real is particularly important, as he is up for a contract extension at the end of the year. Is this a classic contract-year bump, or is the still-just-22-year-old showing signs of permanent growth as a defender and shooter (38 percent on four attempts per game)?

The answer will have major repercussions for Chicago for years to come.

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Key Question: Is this Bam the new Bam?

The Heat’s 10-game losing streak garnered a lot of attention, but Bam Adebayo hasn’t been at fault – the big man has had the best two months of his disappointing season in February and March, averaging 20/9/4 on 52 percent shooting from the field and 40 percent from deep (!).

Adebayo’s resurgent offensive play has been the rare silver lining in Miami’s ugly season. He likely won’t shoot this well forever, but the fact that he still knows how to play offense at a high level over an extended stretch is important, considering he’s under contract through 2029.

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Key Question: Is the season over yet?

I can’t quite recall the last time we saw something like this: a team failing so utterly that a trade of the resident superstar (still playing at an All-NBA level, mind you) has already been all but assured in the offseason before the playoffs have even started.

Could the Suns claw their way into the play-in, chipping some fingernails along the way? Sure. Could they even win two sudden-death games to sneak into the final playoff spot? Highly unlikely, but not impossible. Then, they’ll be utterly decimated by an Oklahoma City Thunder team that is younger and much, much better. Who wants that?

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Key Question: What’s next?

The Kings are trying to fend off the Suns for the 10th and final play-in spot, but it’s fair to say that this particular Sacramento team would be highly disfavored even to make it to the first round, much less steal a game from OKC.

They fired coach Mike Brown and hired Doug Christie (and threw De’Aaron Fox under the bus). Two big trades for DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine haven’t yielded much. The team already traded one franchise player, Fox, and the other, center Domantas Sabonis, seems likely to exit in the offseason.

I’m sorry to waste your time, but I don’t have any answers. I’m genuinely curious. What’s next for Sacramento?

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Key Question: Can Deni Avdija solve one problem to ascend to a higher plane?

I’ve been a monster Deni Avdija fan for years. His success in Portland is no accident and no fluke. He’s hyper-competitive, well-rounded, and by all accounts a hard worker.

So I’m utterly baffled as to how this man keeps getting worse at turning the ball over.

Avdija has been exactly eighth percentile in positional turnover rate for three straight seasons, but the absolute number keeps climbing: he’s turned it over more than 16 percent of the time when using a possession. It’s the same rate as James Harden. That’s bad!

High-risk passes will always be a part of Avdija’s repertoire, but he needs to better understand the risk calculus. Sometimes, less is more.

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Key Question: Can De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle fit together?

Fox’s finger has been an issue since the preseason, so shutting him down to get a head start on recovery makes sense. But the team has to be at least a little concerned about adding yet another shooting-starved ballhandler to a Spurs roster filled to the brim with them already.

Depending on how you look at it, it’s either concerning or encouraging that rookie Stephon Castle has been as good or better than Fox this season. Both are talented players, but at least one (and preferably both) will need to learn how to shoot from deep sooner rather than later. Unfortunately, we’ll have to wait until next season to learn any more about the pairing.

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Key Question: What is RJ Barrett’s best role?

The Raptors have four guaranteed starters next season: Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram, Immanuel Quickley, and Jakob Poeltl. The fifth slot is seemingly up for grabs.

RJ Barrett has been a successful developmental story for Toronto. He’s shown real playmaking growth this season, particularly early in the year, when he was the only ambulatory body on the roster. But there is a lot of overlap between his skill set and the other starters. A move to the bench for a more threatening off-ball shooter like Ochai Agbaji or even Gradey Dick seems in play, although Barrett will almost certainly get the first crack at starting.

Regardless, the Raptors will enter next season a far deeper team than most people realize.

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Key Question: Can the Zion Williamson/Yves Missi lineups work?

It’s tough to get a read on anything Pelicans-related, given their season-drowning deluge of injuries. The play of rookie center Yves Missi has been an unexpected bright spot, as he’s been a force on the boards and a solid (if raw) rim protector.

However, the Zion/Missi lineups have been savaged defensively. The return of perimeter lockdown artist Herb Jones will help, but both Williamson and Missi have plenty to improve upon if they want to get consistent stops.

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Key Question: Is anyone still on this roster in two years?

The Nets are at the very beginning of a total demolition and reconstruction. Despite coach Jordi Fernandez consistently pulling out unfathomable wins early in the year, they’ve successfully Killian Hayes’d and Reece Beekman’d their way into the sixth lottery slot, with a chance to creep into the Top 5.

Right now, only Nic Claxton and Cameron Johnson are under contract for 2026-27; both players are old and valuable enough that they seem destined to be traded. A whopping seven players will be restricted free agents that season – if they make it that far.

It’s pretty rare to see a total roster overhaul in a two-season span, but the Nets might just do it.

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Key Question: (*my voice is drowned out by the clacking of ping-pong balls*)

The only question that matters for Washington will be answered on Monday, May 12th, at the NBA Draft Lottery event (and you better believe it’s presented by State Farm). Cooper Flagg dreams are dancing through Wizards fans’ heads.

Washington has been too good for their own good, and the Jazz have finally caught them for the league’s worst record. It seems unlikely that Utah will make the mistake of winning another game, so if both teams lose out, a random drawing will determine who gets the edge. While both teams will have the same chance for a #1 pick, the absolute bottom team will slide no further than fifth, while the second-worst team could theoretically slide to sixth.

The distinction could matter, but hopefully, it won’t.

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Key Question: Can this team stay healthy?

LaMelo Ball, Tre Mann, Mark Williams, and Brandon Miller have all played fewer than 50 games, most significantly so. Those are four of the Hornets’ five or six best players this season. This is not an untalented team, and they’ll be adding a high draft pick, too.

Can they stay healthy enough to make a surprise leap next season?

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Key Question: What (if anything) can we take away from March Sadness?

The 76ers are losing, and losing well, as they try to keep their top-six protected pick, but there have still been several interesting on-court happenings. The Quentin Grimes explosion has made the biggest bang, but Justin Edwards’ late-season glow-up has been noisy, too.

The undrafted rookie is averaging more than 14 points per game on 46/37/76 percent shooting splits in March. He’s shown some tantalizing, albeit wildly inconsistent, flashes of defense, too:

At a strong 6-foot-6, Edwards has the potential to be a real two-way depth piece with some offensive juice. He won’t have nearly this much freedom next season, but an offseason to improve his weaknesses and burnish his strengths could make him a valuable contributor to winning far sooner than expected.

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Key Question: Can Kyle Filipowski defend?

The Jazz’s second-round pick last offseason has shown plenty of offensive skill. He’s canning 39 percent of his threes on five attempts per 36 minutes, has passing touch, and is a better finisher around the basket than people give him credit for, thanks to a beautiful floater.

However, the defense remains a work in progress, the kind with yellow tape and barricades set up to warn pedestrians away from a dangerous area. It’s typical for young bigs to struggle, and the Jazz’s pathetic defensive infrastructure has done him no favors. But I’m surprised that his rim protection, in particular, has not carried over from Duke, where he was serviceable around the rim.

For more from Mike Shearer, visit Basketball Poetry, where he delivers NBA insight and entertainment 2-3x a week (even during the summer!).