The NBA regular season is entering its second-to-last weekend with five of the six automatic Western Conference playoff spots still up for grabs. With just 2.5 games separating the No. 3 seed from the No. 8 seed, every matchup gains significance. The Denver Nuggets currently hold the No. 3 seed and will face the Golden State Warriors Friday in a potential playoff preview. The Warriors, winners Thursday against the Lakers, are just 1.5 games back of Denver for the No. 3 spot. Golden State enters Friday’s game trying to snap a nine-game losing streak against the Nuggets in regular season action.
The Warriors are on the second night of a back-to-back set and have to contend with Nikola Jokic, who just dropped a 61-point triple-double on the Timberwolves in a double-overtime loss. Jokic averaged 30.0 points, 13.3 rebounds and 8.8 assists per game in March as the Nuggets attempt to round into championship form at the right time. Although Jokic is likely to fall short in the MVP race, he is putting up gaudy numbers with 42.3 points, 11.3 rebounds and 8.7 assists per game over his last three games. After sitting against the Spurs, Jokic is considered probable for Friday’s contest.
The Warriors are 1-point favorites in the latest Denver-Golden State odds on SportsLine after opening as 3-point favorites. Golden State is a -111 favorite on the money line (risk $111 to win $100) while Denver is a -108 (risk $100 to win $108) underdog. The total comes in at 235.5.
But what if you want to bet on player props, particularly on whether Jokic will have another monster night against a potential playoff opponent? The SportsLine model has you covered. It continuously refreshes the most recent available data and can help you spot the biggest discrepancies in the lines. The SportsLine model, which can be found on every game forecast page on SportsLine under the “Prop Picks” tab, assigns ratings of up to five stars for each projected value play on every NBA slate. Those picks can be integral to building winning parlays on DraftKings, FanDuel, PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy or Sleeper Fantasy and in same-game parlays on any betting site.
Let’s check out the SportLine model’s three highest-rated player prop recommendations for Nuggets-Warriors and see what the payout would be if they were put into a same-game parlay — and check out the optimal same-game parlay for every game on Monday’s NBA schedule at SportsLine.
Nikola Jokic Under 50.5 points + rebounds + assists (-114): 4 stars
Even though Jokic went for 38 points, 10 rebounds and six assists in his lone matchup with Golden State this season, the star big man is expected to slow down Friday night. Denver’s center has gone Under his points + rebounds + assists line five times in his last six games on the road against an opponent with a top-10 defense. Even with the Warriors on the second night of a back-to-back set, the SportsLine model projects Jokic at 46.1 points + rebounds + assists.
Draymond Green Under 9.5 points (-102): 3.5 stars
Green has not been able to take advantage of struggling defensive teams lately when it comes to scoring points. The veteran forward has gone Under his points line seven times in his last 10 matchups against an opponent with a bottom-10 defense. He has failed to clear 10 points in three of his last five games, and the SportsLine model projects Green at 8.3 points Friday.
Jamal Murray Over 5.5 assists (+110): 3.5 stars
Murray is projected for 5.5 assists in SportsLine’s model, but the Over on this prop adds a strong plus-money leg to the same-game parlay. The star guard is averaging 5.8 assists per game over his last five games, going Over on his assists prop four times.
Same-Game Parlay odds: +658
