With just two days left on the 2024-25 NBA season, playoff seeding is up for grabs, especially in the Western Conference. One key game that will dictate how things stand in the West takes place Friday night when the Memphis Grizzlies visit the Denver Nuggets.
At 48-32, Denver holds the No. 4 spot in the West, meaning the Nuggets are currently on track to have homecourt advantage in the first round. They have the same record as the Los Angeles Clippers entering Friday night but own the tiebreaker. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, are 47-33 as the No. 7 seed in the West. That means they’re holding a play-in spot. Memphis is tied with the Golden State Warriors record-wise, but the Warriors are the No. 6 seed due to a tiebreaker.
The Nuggets are 6.5-point favorites, according to SportsLine consensus odds. They are also -282 on the money line (bet $282 to win $100). The Grizzlies are +227 money-line underdogs (bet $100 to win $227), while the over/under is 244.5.
These two teams will lean on their stars in this critical clash, with Ja Morant leading the way for Memphis and three-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic running the show for Denver. Those two are also part of Friday’s top NBA same-game parlay made with the help of the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. You can see all of the model’s top-rated prop picks for every game under the “Prop Picks” tab. There are ratings of up to five stars assigned for all sorts of different prop bets for players. Those picks can be key for creating winning parlays on DraftKings, FanDuel, PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy or Sleeper Fantasy as well as same-game parlays on any available betting site.
Here are the SportsLine model’s three top-rated player prop picks for Friday’s Grizzlies-Nuggets game, including what the payout would be if they were put into a three-leg same-game parlay.
Ja Morant Under 33.5 total points + assists (-108): 4 stars
Morant is coming off a 36-point performance against the Minnesota Timberwolves in a losing effort and has scored at least 26 points in each of his last five games and recorded at least 31 total points + assists in each of those contests. His points + assists prop for Friday is set at 33.5, and the model is taking the Under with a projection of 29.1. Morant has finished Under his points + assists prop in seven of his last 13 games against teams with bottom-10 defenses.
Nikola Jokic Under 54.5 total points + rebounds + assists (-118): 4 stars
Jokic is the PRA king of the NBA, as his lofty 54.5 PRA line for Friday’s clash with the Grizzlies suggests. The model still expects the three-time MVP to have a big game, but he’s projected to finish Under with 50.1 PRA. Jokic has finished Under his PRA line in six of his last 10 games when the Nuggets were favored against winning teams, averaging 52.0 PRA per contest.
Desmond Bane Under 31.5 total points + rebounds + assists (-114): 4 stars
Bane is also projected to finish Under his PRA prop line, with the model projecting him to have 27.4 PRA against Denver. Bane has finished Under his PRA prop in four of his last five games in which the Grizzlies were underdogs, averaging 23.6 PRA per game over that span.
Same-Game Parlay odds: +568
