There are multiple storylines on display when the Dallas Mavericks host the Los Angeles Lakers Wednesday night. The biggest, naturally, is that it is Luka Doncic’s first game in Dallas since the Mavs traded him to Los Angeles in a stunning move ahead of the NBA trade deadline. Doncic has faced his old squad once already, recording a triple double in a 107-99 Lakers win in Los Angeles. There’s also the NBA playoff race, which both these teams are in. The Lakers are currently the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference at 48-31 and need to be at least a No. 4 seed in order to secure homecourt advantage for the first round. The Mavericks, meanwhile, are 38-41 and are the No. 10 seed in the Western Conference, which is the final seed needed to be part of the play-in tournament.
The Lakers are 3.5-point favorites, according to SportsLine consensus odds. They are also -171 on the money line (bet $171 to win $100). The Mavericks are +142 money-line underdogs (bet $100 to win $142), while the over/under is 229.
If you’re considering making wagers on prop bets or putting together a same-game parlay for Wednesday’s Lakers-Mavericks matchup, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. You can see all of the model’s top-rated prop picks for every game under the “Prop Picks” tab. There are ratings of up to five stars assigned for all sorts of different prop bets for players. Those picks can be key for creating winning parlays on DraftKings, FanDuel, PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy or Sleeper Fantasy as well as same-game parlays on any available betting site.
Here are the SportsLine model’s three top-rated player prop picks for Wednesday’s Lakers-Mavericks game, including what the payout would be if they were put into a three-leg same-game parlay.
Luka Doncic Under 30.5 total points (+100): 4 stars
All eyes will be on Doncic as he returns to his former city for the first time since being traded in a move that sent shockwaves throughout the sports world. Doncic already got some revenge against his former team with a triple double in Los Angeles in February, where he scored 19 points. His points line for Wednesday is much higher at 30.5, and while the model expects him to have a good game in the scoring department with a projection of 27.8, that would be an Under for his prop. Doncic has finished Under his points prop in four of his last five road games against losing teams, averaging 23.2 points per contest over that span.
Naji Marshall Under 20.5 total points + rebounds + assists (-125): 4 stars
Naji Marshall is playing his most minutes in his fifth NBA season and first year with the Mavericks, which has resulted in career-high numbers across the board. He’s averaging 20.9 PRA per game this year, but the model is taking the Under on that prop on Wednesday. Marshall has finished Under his PRA prop in seven of his last 10 games against teams with top-10 defenses. He’s projected to finish Wednesday with 15.5 PRA.
Dereck Lively II Over 4.5 total rebounds (+106): 4 stars
This will be Lively’s third game since returning from a lengthy injury that cost him most of the season, and with Anthony Davis questionable, he could be in line for considerable minutes. The model likes the Over on his rebounds prop, and Lively has gone Over in that department in four of his last five games played, with an average of 10.2. The model doesn’t think he’ll reach that level of production, but it is projecting Lively to pull down 5.5 rebounds against the Lakers.
Same-Game Parlay odds: +650
