The Clippers enter the playoffs on an eight-game winning streak that helped them secure fifth place in the highly competitive Western Conference and a matchup with the Denver Nuggets, who won the 2023 NBA title behind three-time MVP Nikola Jokic.
The Clippers do have size with 7-foot Ivica Zubac to combat Denver’s all-world center as well as a healthy and once-again productive Kawhi Leonard, one of three players averaging 20-plus points along with James Harden and Norman Powell.
The Nuggets have recovered since a four-game losing streak cost Michael Malone, the franchise’s most successful coach, his job. Denver has recovered under interim coach Dave Adelman, winning three in a row to close the season and secure the fourth seed.
The two clubs last met in the postseason during the 2020 bubble playoffs when the Nuggets rallied from a 3-1 series deficit to eliminate the Clippers.
Here’s how two Western Conference scouts, speaking on condition of anonymity because they’re not authorized to speak publicly about opponents, break down the series:
Scout 1
“I think it’s probably gonna be one of the best series out there. Like, I don’t know if a team is playing better than the Clippers are right now, and you’re going against the best player in the world.
“I think it’ll be it’ll be a chess match, and I’m curious to see how Adelman does against arguably the best Xs and O’s coach in the league [in Tyronn Lue]. I think they’re gonna throw a lot a lot of different looks at Joker. But I think I think if I’m the Nuggets, the Clippers are one of the teams that I would not want to be playing because I think they can play you a lot of different ways. Like, they have size to go against Joker to keep them from just bullying. If they want to kind of speed up the game, they can go small at five and match up to him as a shooter.
“Yeah, the Clippers have got pretty good wing defenders in Kris Dunn and obviously Kawai and Derrick Jones that they can kind of stay with the movement of Denver off the ball. So, I think it’s going to be a tough matchup for Denver. I think on paper Denver is the more talented team, but they’ve had so much turmoil this season. It’s hard to pick against the team playing as well as the Clippers are with Kawhi playing like he is.”
“I think with something like the Clippers’ defense, especially in the playoffs, it’s all about can you take away what they really want to do and what Joker wants to do is get everybody else involved because when Michael Porter is hitting open threes, and Jamal Murray is getting his scoring and Christian Braun is cutting back door and doing all that stuff, they just become really, really potent. If you can kind of take them out of that — I don’t know if it’s the stay home on everybody and make Jokic score 50 method. I don’t know if it’s still like play one on one with with Zu down there and if he beats you over the top out of the post you live with it. But to me, I think it’s both the initial look and you take away what they want to do and then what’s your adjustment and that’s where I think Ty is so good at like you know whether it’s bringing a double team or doing something different in like the Joker-Murray two-man game. Like, I think there’s just a lot a lot optional there because that group’s been together in that group kind of knows what to do. I think they’ve done some different things throughout the season to experiment with some different stuff. So I think it’s been a really good series.”
Scout 2
“The whole game plan is going to start with the Clippers dealing with Nikola Jokic. The one advantage the Clippers have that a lot of teams don’t is that they got the size with Zubac to matchup with Jokic. Like, Jokic can’t push him around or bully him under the basket because Zubac is just as big. So, I don’t think the Clippers will need to double team. I think they’ll be content with just playing him straight-up with Zubac. Because with Jokic, if you start double-teaming him, he picks you apart. So it’s almost like you want to play him one-on-one and have him score in the paint rather than getting everybody else involved. So, what I see with the Clippers is playing him straight up with Zubac and not really wanting to double-team him.
“Now when he steps out and shoots those threes, I think you come up and contest those threes. You don’t back all the way off him. You got to put a little bit of a contest, get your hand up. But you live with him making a couple a game.
“Now the Clippers have weapons with Kawhi, James, Norman and Zu. The Clippers have much more firepower than Denver, much more. They got four guys that can at any time score 20. They got two guys at any time could score 30. The Clippers create much more problems than Denver does for the Clippers on offense. The biggest concern is James has got to keep playing. He can’t revert back to 19 dribbles, one-on-one, all that stuff. There’s going to be spots in the game where he’s going to have to isolation, but he’s got to keep playing the way he’s been playing this last two or three months.
“It hurts Denver a little bit that Mike Malone got fired so late in the season. But the one thing that helps them is that the assistants have been there for a couple of years. The others guys have been there so they are real familiar with the players, they are familiar with the Clippers. So, it’s not as bad as some people think. Now, does it affect them a little bit? Sure, because Malone is a championship coach, like Ty Lue, who has been through it. But at least they have some continuity there with their assistants.
“So, when you look at Denver’s team, really the key is is Jamal Murray healthy and does Michael Porter make jump shots. Because if Porter is making jumpers, they are a whole different team. He’ll shoot from anywhere, anytime. The best play in the NBA, when Murray is healthy, is the Murray and Jokic two-man pick-and-roll game. It’s that tough to defend. When both guys are healthy and got it going, that two-man game with them, it’s a nightmare.
“The Clippers have the depth advantage. Denver does not have a good bench. They don’t have the bench that the Clippers have, not even close. That’s going to be a factor.
“So, even though the Clippers don’t have home court, I still think they are going to win the series.”
