Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, April 2, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AI’s Takes of the Day
Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 67-55-2 (54.9%). Here are today’s results:
– SAN ANTONIO (+9.5 at DEN)
Streak system #6 favors SAS + DK Betting Splits system #5 and two extreme stat systems fade DEN
– NOP-LAC UNDER 219
Three DK Betting Splits systems and a scheduling situation all favor Under
– DALLAS (-4 vs. ATL)
Two DK Betting Splits systems, extreme stat system #17, and Makinen effective strength ratings projection all favor DAL + scheduling trend fades ATL
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 275-144 SU but just 178-228-13 ATS (43.8%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (-14.5 vs CHA)
* NEW ORLEANS is 15-2 ATS in the last 17 head-to-head games versus LAC (including 10-2 ATS in the last 12 visits to Los Angeles)
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+17.5 at LAC)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is on a 23-3 SU and 20-6 ATS surge when playing 4th Straight Home game
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-13 vs. DET)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SACRAMENTO, DALLAS, OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, CLEVELAND, BOSTON, LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, a ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATL-DAL, NOP-LAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIA-BOS
UNDER – NOP-LAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATL-DAL, NOP-LAC
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 36-12 SU and 27-20-1 ATS (57.4%) hosting teams playing in an H2A b2b game over the last three seasons.
4/2: CLEVELAND vs. New York
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-11 vs. NYK)
* NEW YORK is on 29-24 SU and 33-20 ATS run on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario
4/2: NEW YORK at Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (+11 at CLE)
* Over the total was 64-55 (53.8%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
4/2: Over the total in DALLAS-ATLANTA
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-DAL (o/u at 240.5)
* ATLANTA is on 11-35 SU and 12-33-1 ATS skid when playing on the road in its 3rd Game in 4 Days
4/2: Fade ATLANTA at Dallas
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+4 at DAL)
* Under the total is on an 82-36-1 (69.5%) in the last 119 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
4/2: Under the total in NEW ORLEANS-LA CLIPPERS
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NOP-LAC (o/u at 219)
* LA CLIPPERS are on a 24-27 SU and 18-33 ATS skid in its last 51 tries playing a 3rd in 4 days game
4/2: Fade LA CLIPPERS vs. New Orleans
Trend Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-17 vs. NOP)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is on a 23-3 SU and 20-6 ATS surge when playing 4th Straight Home game
4/2: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Detroit
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-13 vs. DET)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 27-11 Over the total in its last 38 3rd Straight Home games
4/2: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-DETROIT
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DET-OKC (o/u at 232)
* UTAH is 14-24 SU BUT 29-9 ATS in its last 38 3rd Straight Road games
4/2: UTAH at Houston
Trend Match (PLAY ATS): UTAH (+17.5 at HOU)
* UTAH is on a 48-27 Over the total run when playing on the road with OneDayRest
4/2: Over the total in UTAH-HOUSTON
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-HOU (o/u at 226.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 148-53 SU and 120-80-1 ATS (60%) run.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (*if they become favorites in this line range, -11 currently)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 258-46 SU but just 142-156-6 ATS (47.7%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): SACRAMENTO (-13 at WSH), OKLAHOMA CITY (-13 vs DET)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 108-88 (55.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 220-169 (56.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 274-212 (56.4%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): SAC-WSH (o/u at 232), CHA-IND (o/u at 222.5), NYK-CLE (o/u at 229.5), MIA-BOS (o/u at 211.5), UTA-HOU (o/u at 226.5), DET-OKC (o/u at 232), NOP-LAC (o/u at 219)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 58-92 SU and 61-84-5 ATS (42.1%) slide, including 32-53-3 ATS in the last 88 games and 20-35 ATS when a pick ’em or favorite.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-9.5 vs. SAS)
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 246-133 SU but 174-197-8 ATS (46.9%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 33-35-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-13 vs. DET)
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 153-92 SU but 112-129-4 ATS (46.5%) in the follow-up contest over the last 6 seasons. Included among this is a 93-114 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-9.5 vs. SAS)
Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 78-55 SU and 69-62-2 ATS (52.7%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 24-17 ATS as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-13 vs. DET)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 275-144 SU but just 178-228-13 ATS (43.8%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (-14.5 vs CHA)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 308-264 (53.8%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-DEN (o/u at 231.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 289-304 SU and 265-320-8 ATS (45.3%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-13 vs DET)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 331-295 SU but 285-322-17 ATS (47%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-11 vs. MIA), OKLAHOMA CITY (-13 vs. DET)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 159-101 SU and 150-103-7 ATS (59.3%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+17 at LAC)
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 193-76 SU and 143-123-3 ATS (53.8%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-4 vs. ATL)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine different betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 122-22 SU BUT 62-79-3 ATS (44%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): BOSTON (-11 vs MIA), OKLAHOMA CITY (-13 vs DET)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on an 80-87 SU but 96-69-3 ATS (58.2%) surge.
System Match (PLAY ATS): SAN ANTONIO (+9.5 at DEN)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 252-302-3 ATS (45.5%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-134 SU and 70-89-5 ATS (44%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-11 vs. MIA), OKLAHOMA CITY (-13 vs. DET)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 61-83-1 ATS (42.4%) in the next game, including 28-41 ATS (40.6%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-11 vs. MIA), OKLAHOMA CITY (-13 vs. DET)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WASHINGTON +13.5 (+2.2)
2. CHARLOTTE +15 (+1.1)
3. ATLANTA +4 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS -17.5 (+4.8)
2. HOUSTON -16.5 (+3.4)
3. DENVER -9.5 (+3.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). CHARLOTTE +15 (+2.5)
UTAH +16.5 (+2.5)
3. WASHINGTON +13.5 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS -4 (+5.0)
2. BOSTON -11 (+1.8)
3. LA CLIPPERS -17.5 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAS-DEN OVER 231.5 (+2.6)
2. NOP-LAC OVER 217.5 (+1.9)
3. CHA-IND OVER 223 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-BOS UNDER 211 (-2.8)
2. SAC-WSH UNDER 232 (-2.1)
3. NYK-CLE UNDER 229.5 (-1.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WASHINGTON +13.5 (+3.1)
2. ATLANTA +4 (+0.6)
3. CHARLOTTE +15 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS -17.5 (+5.4)
2. HOUSTON -16.5 (+3.2)
3. BOSTON -11 (+2.8)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHA-IND OVER 222 (+2.7)
2. SAS-DEN OVER 231.5 (+2.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NYK-CLE UNDER 229.5 (-2.3)
2. DET-OKC UNDER 232 (-2.1)
3. SAC-WSH UNDER 232 (-1.7)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(531) SACRAMENTO at (532) WASHINGTON
* Under the total is 11-4 in the last 15 of the SAC-WSH head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(535) NEW YORK at (536) CLEVELAND
* Under the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of the NYK-CLE head-to-head series, but did go Over the last time
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(537) MIAMI at (538) BOSTON
* BOSTON is 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six head-to-head games versus MIA
Trend Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS
(539) UTAH at (540) HOUSTON
* UTAH is 6-1 ATS in the last seven head-to-head games versus HOU
Trend Match: PLAY UTAH ATS
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the UTA-HOU head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(541) DETROIT at (542) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six of the DET-OKC head-o-head series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(547) NEW ORLEANS at (548) LA CLIPPERS
* NEW ORLEANS is 15-2 ATS in the last 17 head-to-head games versus LAC (including 10-2 ATS in the last 12 visits to Los Angeles)
Trend Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS
