The Oklahoma City Thunder will look to close out the Denver Nuggets in Game 6 of their Western Conference semifinal series on Thursday. Oklahoma City took a 3-2 series edge with a 112-105 win on Tuesday. The Thunder (68-14), who are looking to reach the conference finals for the first time since 2015-2016, are 35-9 on the road this season, including playoffs. The Nuggets (50-32), who won the NBA title in 2022-2023, are 30-17 on their home court.
Tip-off from Ball Arena in Denver is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. The Thunder are 4.5-point favorites in the latest Thunder vs. Nuggets odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 216.5. The Thunder are -185 on the money line (risk $185 to win $100), while the Nuggets are +154 (risk $100 to win $154). Before making any Nuggets vs. Thunder picks, check out the NBA predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters the second week of the conference semifinals of the 2025 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 159-117 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning nearly $4,000. It is also 23-11 (68%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, the model has simulated Thunder vs. Nuggets 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Nuggets vs. Thunder:
- Thunder vs. Nuggets spread: Oklahoma City -4.5 at DraftKings
- Thunder vs. Nuggets over/under: 216.5 points
- Thunder vs. Nuggets money line: Oklahoma City -185, Denver +154
- OKC: The Thunder have covered the spread in 57 of their last 93 games (+21.80 units)
- DEN: The Nuggets have hit the money line in 40 of their last 65 games (+12.65 units)
- Thunder vs. Nuggets picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Thunder vs. Nuggets streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why the Thunder can cover
Point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to play at an MVP level. In the Game 5 win over the Nuggets, he scored 31 points, while adding seven assists, six rebounds, two blocks and two steals. He had 25 points, six rebounds, six assists and two steals in a 92-87 win on Sunday in Game 4. In nine postseason starts, he is averaging 28 points, 6.7 assists, 6.6 rebounds and 1.4 steals in 36.9 minutes.
Also helping power the Thunder is forward Jalen Williams. In nine playoff starts, he is averaging 20.7 points, 5.2 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 1.3 steals in 34.9 minutes. In Tuesday’s win over the Nuggets, he scored 18 points, while grabbing nine rebounds and dishing out four assists. In Friday’s 113-104 overtime loss in Game 3, he poured in 32 points, while adding five assists and three rebounds in 43 minutes. See which team to back at SportsLine.
Why the Nuggets can cover
Center Nikola Jokic is one of five Denver players averaging double-digit scoring. In 12 postseason starts, he is averaging 26.5 points, 12.9 rebounds, 8.1 assists and 2.2 steals in 40.4 minutes. He had a monster performance in Game 5, scoring 44 points, while adding 15 rebounds, five assists and two steals. He had 27 points, 13 rebounds, four steals and three assists in a Game 4 loss on Sunday.
Point guard Jamal Murray is also having a solid series. In 12 playoff games, he is averaging 22.3 points, 5.3 assists, 4.9 rebounds and 1.2 steals in 41.8 minutes. In Game 5, he poured in 28 points, while grabbing four rebounds and dishing out three assists. In a 113-104 overtime win in Game 3, he scored 27 points, while adding eight assists, four rebounds and four steals. See which team to back at SportsLine.
How to make Thunder vs. Nuggets picks
SportsLine’s model has simulated Thunder vs. Nuggets 10,000 times and is leaning under the total, projecting 213 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s NBA picks.
So who wins Nuggets vs. Thunder, and which side of the spread cashes in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Thunder vs. Nuggets spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.
