The Indiana Pacers are four wins away from making history against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA Finals.
Photo By – Imagn Images.
The Indiana Pacers will become the largest underdogs ever to win the NBA Finals if they are victorious in four of their potential next seven matchups against the Oklahoma City Thunder, according to the latest NBA odds.
Key takeaways
- The longest NBA Finals underdog champion had +500 pre-series odds
- The Pacers were +5000 to win the NBA Finals during the offseason
- The Thunder were 2-0 SU and ATS in their season series with the Pacers
The Pacers’ +530 series price at FanDuel Sportsbook gives them an implied 15.9 percent chance of victory compared to the Thunder’s -750 (88.2 percent implied chance).
The 2003-04 Detroit Pistons set the all-time record for largest underdog (+500) to win the NBA Finals when they beat the Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant-led Los Angeles Lakers (-700) in five games.
The Thunder’s season would have been a total disappointment if they failed to reach the NBA Finals. They were the Western Conference’s first seed for the second season running, had the best record in the NBA, and set the league’s all-time record for highest average scoring margin.
The Pacers…they were not in the same position. They began the season tied with the New Orleans Pelicans and Cleveland Cavaliers for the 15th-best title odds at +5000.
Those offseason prognostications might be nothing more than a distant memory at this point, but they serve to illustrate the stark difference between the two teams.
Those +5000 odds would make Indy, if it finds a way to win the NBA Finals, the biggest preseason underdog champion since at least 1984-85. The 2014-15 Golden State Warriors currently hold that distinction, though they were only +2800 to win the title.
That means that the Warriors, although they only had a 3.5 percent implied chance, were still nearly twice as far ahead in odds to win the NBA Finals as the Pacers.
Prolific Pacers
For those counting, the 14-15 season was Stephen Curry’s first as an MVP and the Warriors’ first title since 1975. The Pacers’ team and players aren’t quite on that same historical level, but that doesn’t mean that they have failed to be dominant.
Indy’s fourth seed in the Eastern Conference is nothing but a thin veil masking their demonic play. Their 46-18 record since Jan. 1 is the second-best in the NBA, trailing only the Thunder (53-13).
The Pacers also ranked second in offensive efficiency and first in true shooting percentage in the playoffs, helping them achieve a +4.1 net rating. The Thunder are second at +11.2.
Both teams went exactly 12-4 in the first three rounds of the postseason.
For the Thunder, that meant sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies, going seven games with the Denver Nuggets, and sending the Minnesota Timberwolves home in five games.
The Pacers beat the Milwaukee Bucks and the Cleveland Cavaliers in five games and just took down the New York Knicks in six.
OKC in the clutch
The Thunder have mostly dominated their opponents, although they mounted a 27-point comeback in Game 3 of the first round and rank fourth in playoff clutch rating (+11.7), defined as games within five points in the final five minutes.
The Pacers haven’t been as outwardly imposing but have played well both with a lead and from behind, and they outscored their opponents by an absurd 37.4 points per 100 possessions during clutch time.
FanDuel listed the Thunder as nine-point home favorites in Game 1. Fifty-nine percent of spread bets are on the Pacers +9, but 54 percent of the spread handle is on the Thunder -9.
OKC went 2-0 straight-up and against the spread during their regular-season series with the Pacers, winning by six and 21 points.
