The Eastern and Western Conference Finals aren’t set just yet, but two teams have advanced — the Indiana Pacers and Minnesota Timberwolves.
Yet, both squads aren’t getting as much love as you may expect in the betting market despite being just eight wins from an NBA title.
The Timberwolves, who have rolled through the first two rounds by beating the Los Angeles Lakers in five games and the Golden State Warriors in five games, are the No. 2 choice in the odds at +425 to win the title. They are well behind the Oklahoma City Thunder (+135 at DraftKings) even though OKC still needs to win Game 7 against the Denver Nuggets to advance to the Western Conference Finals.
If the Thunder lose, which is certainly possible, one has to think that the Wolves would rise in the odds to win the title. Minnesota knocked the Nuggets out of the playoffs last season, and Denver has really taxed itself in the postseason , going to seven games in the first and second rounds.
While the Thunder will be favored if they win, Minnesota has a pair of wins over OKC this season. The Thunder are also 1-5 against the spread in their series against Denver, so it’s far from a guarantee that they win Game 7.
In the Eastern Conference, Indiana is sitting at +500 to win the title, just ahead of the New York Knicks (+550) who still need a win over the Boston Celtics to advance.
While Indiana isn’t going to have home court in the Eastern Conference Finals, it’s 8-2 in the playoffs and dominated the No. 1-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round, winning three games on the road.
The Pacers had success against the Knicks last season, knocking them out of the playoffs in the second round.
The other interesting thing to look at is the implied probability associated with these team’s odds. Minnesota has just a 19.05 percent chance to win the title based on its odds while the Pacers are down at 16.67 percent.
That’s really interesting considering these squads are both top five in the NBA in net rating and offensive rating so far in the playoffs. Since they’ve already advanced, getting them at around 5/1 odds is a pretty favorable price, especially if you don’t view Oklahoma City as a massive favorite.
The Thunder deserve to be favored for their play this season, but they have not played well enough in the Denver series to be considered as an odds on favorite — and oddsmakers actually moved them back from that after they lost Game 6.
Here’s a full look at the odds to win the title ahead of Friday’s Game 6 between Boston and New York.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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