Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals looked to be a clear win for the home team, until it wasn’t.
The New York Knicks became the first team in over 25 years to lose a game where they led by nine in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime.
A wild fourth quarter flurry from 3 by Aaron Nesmith – as well plenty of Knicks mistakes – allowed Indiana to tie the game at the buzzer on a step-back jumper from Tyrese Haliburton. Then, in overtime, New York turned the ball over multiple teams, including with less than 24 seconds to go, to allow the Pacers to come away with an improbable upset win.
Oddsmakers have moved the Pacers to the favorite to win this series, but the Knicks are 5.5-point favorites in the latest odds for Game 2.
Can Jalen Brunson and company bounce back? It’s going to be tough against a Pacers team that has won five out of six games on the road and nine of 11 games overall in the playoffs.
Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Moneyline
Total
Pacers Injury Report
Knicks Injury Report
Indiana Pacers Best NBA Prop Bet
Turner finished Game 1 with 14 points on 6-of-11 shooting, but the Knicks’ defense left him unguarded on several occasions off of pick-and-pop scenarios.
While Turner isn’t going to really bang down low – or pick up points by hitting the offensive glass – he’s a lethal jump shooter that has hit 43.2 percent of his 3-pointers in the 2025 NBA Playoffs.
If Karl-Anthony Towns is going to be content with sitting in drop coverage and leaving Turner open, he’s going to make the Knicks pay more times than not. Turner has 14 or more points in eight of his 11 games this postseason, averaging 16.3 per game.
If he’s able to get up double-digit shot attempts again, he’s a steal at this number in Game 2.
New York Knicks Best NBA Prop Bet
Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Jalen Brunson could be in line for another big scoring performance in Game 2:
Jalen Brunson easily cleared his points prop of 28.5 in Game 1, and I’m going back to the well in Game 2 – even though oddsmakers have bumped this number up a point.
Brunson gave the Pacers some major issues last postseason, shooting 67 percent when guarded by Andrew Nembhard and 45 percent when guarded by Aaron Nesmith. On Wednesday, he picked up right where he left off, scoring 43 points on 15-of-25 shooting.
Brunson was also able to get to the line a ton, going 12-for-14 from the charity stripe.
The Knicks’ offense has always been reliant on Brunson, and if he’s going to continue to dominate his matchup, there is going to be more and more isolation for him in Tom Thibodeau’s scheme.
This postseason, Brunson is averaging 22.5 shots per game, and he’s turned that into 29.9 points per game while shooting over 45 percent from the field. As long as the usage remains in the same ballpark, Brunson should go for 30 or more in Game 2.
My pick for this game is another one that I gave out in today’s Peter’s Points, as the Pacers continue to be undervalued on the road in the postseason.
This season, the Pacers are the No. 4 team in the NBA against the spread as a road underdog (17-10), and I’m surprised to see this number climb after the Pacers were 4.5-point dogs in Game 1.
All postseason long, the Knicks have played close games, and even when they’re up big, they let the Pacers back into Game 1. While I don’t expect Aaron Nesmith to have another Klay Thompson-esque performance, the Pacers forced the Knicks to push the pace and play at their tempo all night long.
Indiana is now 5-1 on the road, winning each of its last five games away from Gainbridge Fieldhouse, and it has the depth to withstand a quick turnaround after an overtime game. Unlike the Knicks, who are playing seven to eight players in their rotation, Indiana has been going as many as 11 deep in the playoffs.
Outside of Game 6 against Boston, New York has yet to pull away – and hold on to a lead – this postseason. In fact, the Knicks only have two wins by double digits in the entire playoffs and have gone 3-4 straight up at home.
I’ll trust the Pacers to keep this game within two possessions – if they don’t win outright – on Friday.
Pick: Pacers +5.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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