The Oklahoma City Thunder evened up the 2025 NBA Finals at one game apiece on Sunday night, beating the Indiana Pacers 123-107 and covering the 11.5-point spread. The game crept over the total of 228 on a layup by James Johnson on Indiana’s final possession.
The Thunder opened as 4.5-point road favorites in Indiana for Game 3, before the line was pushed out to 5.5 by respected money coming in on Oklahoma City. The total is 227.5 at BetMGM. The public is backing Oklahoma City and the over, with 54% of the wagers on the Thunder to cover and 67% of bets on the over. Oklahoma City is 0-7 against the spread on the road this postseason.
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“We’re as balanced as it can really be on the spread at the moment,” BetMGM trader Halvor Egeland told Yahoo Sports. “Less than 1% difference in total bet money. A little bit more on the Thunder moneyline than the Pacers, but only slightly. Thunder winning would actually be the better result for us. Pretty one-sided on the total so far. Bettors are liking the over.”
Yahoo Sports asked handicapper Michael Fiddle for his thoughts on some best bets for Game 3 of the finals:
Game 3: Oklahoma City Thunder (-5.5, 227.5) at Indiana Pacers
Fiddle: “I love Oklahoma City in Game 3. If we understand the value of home-court advantage, it decreases as the rounds go on in the postseason. There’s less of a shock factor and players are more used to it.
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“In the conference finals, we saw the Thunder -8 in Oklahoma City and then when the series shifted to Minnesota, it was OKC -3, so a five-point difference. I have every outcome tracked for the last three seasons, and 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 are the most important numbers against the spread in the postseason. The key-number scale slides up a little in the postseason because there are more blowouts.
“A six-point move [OKC -11.5 at home to -5.5 on the road] is still too much for me, especially through numbers that have a lot of value. I don’t have as big a move up on Indiana’s power rating this postseason.
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“I understand OKC is 0-7 against the spread on the road in the playoffs, but some of those are huge spreads like -15 in a closeout Game 4 in Memphis. I think this closes 6 or 6.5. Death, taxes and late money on OKC. We saw this in Game 1 and Game 2, and I think we see it again here.”
Best bet: Oklahoma City -5.5
