The Red Sox enter Monday a disappointing 29-32. That’s 8 ½ games out in the AL East, though only 3 ½ out of a wild card spot. It’s a bit too early for the front office to fully commit to being a buyer or seller in front of the trade deadline, but it is not too early for us to speculate. They could well be headed toward selling if they don’t get hot in the next few weeks.
And then there’s this from The Athletic Monday:
As the Padres face a daunting upcoming schedule and glaring holes at the bottom of their lineup, their list of trade targets again includes Boston Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran, league sources told The Athletic. The Padres expressed interest in Duran ahead of the 2024 season, before veteran left fielder Jurickson Profar and then-rookie center fielder Jackson Merrill joined Duran as first-time All-Stars. Now, an underwhelming Red Sox team might consider Duran expendable; outfielder Roman Anthony remains tantalizingly close to Boston, and a restless fan base has been clamoring for the arrival of the sport’s consensus No. 1 prospect.
It would be pretty interesting if the Red Sox dangled Duran. He was an All-Star last season and finished eighth in AL MVP voting, posting 8.7 WAR at age 27. This year, he’s hitting .264/.312/.406 (100 OPS+) with 13 doubles, six triples, four homers, 34 RBI, 31 runs, 13 stolen bases and 0.8 WAR in 60 games. He’s still under team control through 2028 and isn’t expensive just yet ($8 million club option for next year before two years of arbitration).
A true sell high on Duran would’ve been after last year, which was likely his career year, but if the Red Sox truly think he could never replicate the 2024 season’s highs, it might make sense to move him now.
Who else could the Red Sox conceivably sell, should they end up choosing this path?
I think the biggest and most intriguing name is Alex Bregman. He just went through a lengthy free agency before landing with the Red Sox on a creative three-year deal, but it has an opt-out clause after this season. He’s injured right now, but prior to that was having his best season in years, perhaps even since he finished second in MVP voting in 2019 (that’s what things like batting average, OPS+ and WAR say). If things continue on this path, Bregman could well be the big name this trade season.
Glancing at the pitching staff, there are a few more who work, too.
Walker Buehler has a mutual option for $25 million next season, but more often than not those don’t get picked up by one side or the other. He got knocked around last outing, but before that had a 2.56 ERA in his previous six starts. He has established postseason pedigree, too. Plenty of contenders need starting pitching and would take a look.
Lucas Giolito returned from Tommy John surgery and has a $14 million club option for next season, so that’s tantamount to being a rental player for any trading team looking for such a pitcher. He’s been a mixed bag so far, but he gave up one or no runs in three of his last four starts. Maybe he can keep that up as the deadline gets close.
Aroldis Chapman has been traded twice in-season in his career and ended up winning a World Series ring both times. Can it be a hat trick this year? He’s pitched to a 1.88 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 32 strikeouts in 24 innings so far. We know he can close and he’s had success in setting up, too. He’s a free agent after the season and contending teams always want bullpen help, so he’d surely be gone if the Red Sox are indeed sellers.
Another veteran bullpen arm is Liam Hendriks, though he hasn’t yet become his old self since Tommy John surgery. In 14 outings, he’s had 10 scoreless, but allowed multiple runs in the other four appearances, giving him a 6.59 ERA on the season. There’s still time to put things together, though, and he only has a $12 million mutual option for next season.
Finally, it’s conceivable that Garrett Whitlock could be dealt as well. He’s controlled through 2028, but that’s with a $7.5 million salary next season and team options for 2027-28. He’s had success as a starter and reliever, though mostly in the latter. He turns 29 years old on June 11.
To reiterate, it’s too early for the Red Sox to commit to selling and there’s always the chance they get hot and sit in a playoff position here in a week or two. For now, though, DraftKings gives them just +235 odds to even make the playoffs. If the Red Sox do work themselves into a position to sell, there are some names here that could move the needle for contenders looking to buy.
