Two higher seeds – the Denver Nuggets and New York Knicks – are aiming to avoid a Game 7 on Thursday night, but they’ll need road wins to do it.
New York is up 3-2 in the first round against the Detroit Pistons, but it blew Game 5 at home to extend the series. For those that have been following my picks in this column, we easily cashed the Pistons +5.5 in that matchup.
Out West, the Nuggets put together a dominant offensive showing in Game 5 at home to take control of their first-round matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers. Denver is now up 3-2 despite getting outplayed for the majority of the first four games in the series.
Oddsmakers have both the Knicks and Nuggets set as underdogs on Thursday, but I’m actually staying away from betting either side when it comes to these Game 6 matchups.
Instead, I’m focusing on a trio of player props, including one for Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic, as he’s been an assists machine this season and in the playoffs.
Here’s a complete breakdown of my favorite props for the NBA action on May 1.
NBA Best Bets Record to Date
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cade Cunningham OVER 6.5 Rebounds (-115) – 0.5 unit
Cade Cunningham has been a menace on the glass for the Pistons in this series, and the All-Star guard is playing a ton of minutes as well.
I expect that to continue in a must-win Game 6 for Detroit, so I’m taking the OVER on Cunningham’s rebounds prop.
Through the first four games of this series, Cunningham has four games with seven or more boards (his last four), including two games with double-digit rebounds. While the Knicks were one of the better rebounding teams in the NBA during the regular season, the Pistons are third in the league in rebounding percentage this postseason.
Cunningham has been a big part of that, pulling down over eight boards per game while averaging 13.6 rebound chances per game. I think he’s in a great spot to clear this line for the fifth game in a row.
Jamal Murray OVER 20.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit
Nuggets star guard Jamal Murray went off in Game 5, scoring 43 points while shooting 17-for-26 from the field and 8-for-14 from beyond the arc.
Murray now has four games in this series where he’s scored 21 or more points (what he needs to do to clear this prop), and he’s shooting 48.4 percent from the field and 44.7 percent from beyond the arc.
Throughout his career, Murray has elevated his scoring in the playoffs, and this season has been no different. While he averages 18 points per game in the regular season for his career, Murray averaged 24.2 in the playoffs.
Plus, this postseason, he’s taken a ton of shots. Murray is averaging 19.0 field goal attempts per game, giving him a terrific floor when it comes to having the usage to clear this line.
I’ll bet on him to stay hot in Game 6.
Nikola Jokic OVER 9.5 Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit
Any time oddsmakers are willing to set Jokic at a number that is less than 10.5 assists, I’m going to bet the OVER.
Jokic has cashed this prop for us multiple times in this series, picking up 10 or more dimes in four of five games. In addition to that, he is averaging a downright insane 20.0 potential assists per game against Los Angeles.
So, Jokic just needs to convert half of those to clear this prop for us on Thursday night.
During the regular season, Jokic averaged a triple-double, and the ball is always going to be in his hands for Denver on offense. He’s also put up huge assist totals early in games as of late, which also gives bettors a chance to hedge – if they want – on his live line.
This is a no-brainer for me on Thursday.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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