Both No. 1 seeds in the NBA playoffs need to pick up road wins to even their respective series on Sunday, as the Cleveland Cavaliers trail the Indiana Pacers 2-1 and the Oklahoma City Thunder dropped Game 3 to fall behind 2-1 to the Denver Nuggets.
Starting in the East, Cleveland bounced back in a big way in Game 3 in Indiana, winning by 22 points behind a 43-point game from Donovan Mitchell. On top of that, the Cavs got all three of their rotation players that missed Game 2 back in action, as Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and De’Andre Hunter all played and made an impact.
None of those three players are on the injury report for Sunday night, leading to oddsmakers setting the Cavs as road favorites in Game 4. Indiana looked great in the first two games of this series, but it scored just 104 points in Game 3.
In the West, Oklahoma City is in serious trouble after losing Game 3 in overtime in Denver. Now, the Thunder need a road win to avoid a 3-1 series deficit, and it’s worth noting that OKC has not looked great in Games 1 or 3 despite a 43-point home win in Game 2.
The Thunder are still the favorites to win the title, but the Boston Celtics are closing in after winning against the New York Knicks on Saturday. Boston is +215 to win the title while the Thunder are +185.
I have a bunch of bets for the two playoff games on Sunday, including a total for the late game between the Cavs and Pacers. Here’s a full breakdown of the picks for Sunday, May 11!
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tyrese Haliburton UNDER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-145) – 0.5 unit
Tyrese Haliburton has hit a ton of clutch shots this postseason, but he’s coming off a dreadful showing in Game 3, putting up just four points on 2-of-8 shooting from the field (0-for-1 from 3).
This continues a concerning trend for Haliburton from beyond the arc, as he’s shooting just 30.0 percent from 3 on 50 attempts this postseason, hitting two or fewer shots from beyond the arc in six of his eight games.
The Cavs have also done a good job of taking away the 3 from Haliburton in this series. He’s attempted just nine 3-pointers overall and just three total over his last two games.
With that usage, he’s awfully tough to trust in this market, especially since the Pacers star has shot the ball well below his season average in the playoffs.
Aaron Gordon OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-115) – 0.5 unit
Another 3-point prop!
Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon is having a career year shooting the ball, knocking down 43.6 percent of his shots from beyond the arc in the regular season.
In the playoffs, Gordon has not cooled off, shooting 16-for-39 (41.0 percent) from deep. He’s also made at least two shots from beyond the arc in every game in this series, shooting 9-for-15 from deep overall.
While Gordon doesn’t take a ton of shots from deep (he’s averaging just 3.9 per game in the playoffs), he’s worth a look in this market because of how efficient he is. Plus, Oklahoma City has allowed him to get up six or more shots from deep in two of the three games in this series.
This line is a solid value in Game 4.
Cleveland Cavaliers-Indiana Pacers OVER 230.5 (-110) – 0.5 unit
So far this postseason, the Cavs are No. 1 in the NBA in offensive rating (127.4) while the Pacers are No. 3 (116.5).
These teams have combined for some high-scoring games, even though Garland has played in just one matchup in the series and the Cavs were down three rotation players in Game 2. So far, the Pacers and Cavs have put up 233, 239 and 230 combined points in this series.
While this total is just a tick above where things finished in Game 3, I do think the Pacers are due for some positive regression after scoring just 104 points in that matchup. Not only did Haliburton struggle, but the Pacers shot just 30.0 percent from 3 in the game.
In fact, Cleveland also shot poorly from beyond the arc (29.8 percent), which could mean that offense will be even easier to come by in Game 4.
With Garland back (although foul trouble limited him to less than 25 minutes in Game 3), the Cavs have another engine on offense to create when Mitchell is off the floor. Mitchell has been terrific in his own right, scoring 40 or more points in back-to-back games.
Plus, these teams are No. 3 (Indiana) and No. 6 (Cleveland) when it comes to pace in these playoffs. I expect the Pacers to put up a little more of a fight on offense, helping push this total back into the high 230s in Game 4.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $200 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.
