Monday’s NBA playoff action features two massive Game 4 matchups, as the Boston Celtics aim to get fully back into their series with the New York Knicks while the Minnesota Timberwolves have a chance to really bury the Stephen Curry-less Golden State Warriors.
Golden State won Game 1 in its series with Minnesota, but it has failed to crack 100 points in any game in the series with Curry (hamstring) exiting Game 1 and likely sitting out until Game 6 – if the series gets there.
Meanwhile, the Timberwolves came back from a fourth-quarter deficit on Saturday to go up 2-1 in the series and could take a commanding 3-1 series lead in Game 4. Only 13 teams (4.4 percent) have come back from a 3-1 deficit in NBA history.
In the East, the Knicks squandered a chance to go up 3-0 on the Celtics, losing badly at Madison Square Garden on Saturday. Now, New York is an underdog in Game 4 as the defending champions aim to even the series before it heads back to Boston.
Can the Knicks and Warriors bounce back with home wins? Oddsmakers aren’t buying it on Monday.
I’m betting on both of these matchups, including player props for Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson. Here’s a breakdown of the picks for this Game 4 action!
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Boston Celtics -6.5 (-110) vs. New York Knicks
After shooting the lights out in Game 3, Boston appears to have re-gained the support of oddsmakers, sitting as one of the favorites to win the NBA Finals and the favorite to win this series.
New York’s wins in Boston were impressive, but the Knicks relied on defense and Boston’s poor shot-making to get it done. So far in this series, the Knicks have been atrocious on offense, posting an offensive rating of 101.4, which would be the second-worst offensive rating of any team this postseason (only Memphis was worse).
That’s simply not going to get it done against this Boston team – even at home.
The Knicks have also struggled at home in the playoffs, going 1-3 straight up and against the spread. New York’s only win came in Game 1 against the Detroit Pistons, and the Knicks needed a 21-0 run in the fourth quarter to pick up that W.
Boston is 21-18-1 against the spread as a road favorite this season, and it has gone up by 20 or more points in every game in this series. I think the C’s easily even the series – and take control of it – on Monday night.
Jalen Brunson OVER 6.5 Assists (+100) – 0.5 unit
The Knicks have played nine games in the playoffs, and Brunson has at least seven dimes in eight of them.
He only fell short of this line in Game 1 against Boston, and he’s averaging 7.6 assists per game in the playoffs. Last postseason, Brunson upped his assist total as well, averaging 7.5 per game.
After averaging a career-high 7.3 assists per game in the regular season, Brunson has done a good job of moving the ball out of double teams this postseason. Overall, he’s averaging 12.9 potential assists per game.
The Knicks have struggled offensively in this series, posting an offensive rating that is just over 100, but Brunson has not been deterred in this market. He’s a great bet at even money in Game 4.
Julius Randle OVER 19.5 Points (-105) – 0.5 unit
The playoff demons are gone for Julius Randle, as he’s averaging 22.4 points, 5.8 rebounds and 6.4 assists per game this postseason while shooting 47.7 percent from the field and 31.7 percent from 3.
Randle has been an issue for a Golden State team that lacks rim protection, as he’s scored 24 points in back-to-back games, attempting 17 and 23 shots in those matchups.
The usage has been pretty steady for Randle as the No. 2 option behind Anthony Edwards, as he’s averaging 16.3 shots per game.
This number is too low for the Wolves star, as he’s scored at least 20 points in six of his eight games this postseason.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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