The Oklahoma City Thunder are just one win away from the NBA Finals heading into Wednesday night’s Game 5 against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Minnesota put up a serious fight in Game 4, making several runs to cut into an OKC lead, but it ultimately lost by two points to fall to 1-3 in the best-of-seven series.
Oddsmakers have set the Thunder as massive favorites to win the NBA Finals, and they’re also favored by 8.5 points in Game 5.
If the Wolves want to extend the series, they’ll need to get more from Anthony Edwards (13 shot attempts in Game 4) and Julius Randle (1-for-7 from the field in Game 4) to make that happen.
While I’m not sold on laying the points with the Thunder in Game 5, there are two players on OKC that I’m eyeing in the prop market for Thursday’s action. Plus, I believe Edwards could be in line for a bounce-back game after being forced to defer for much of Game 4.
Here’s a full breakdown of the picks this this Western Conference Finals clash.
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Chet Holmgren OVER 14.5 Points (-130) – 0.5 unit
It’s been an up-and-down postseason for Chet Holmgren scoring the ball, but he’s put up 15 or more points in three of his four games in this series, including a 21-point showing in Game 4.
Holmgren’s usage has fluctuated – he took just nine shots in Game 1 and seven in Game 3 – but he’s been more involved with Mark Daigneault opting to play more minutes with only one of Holmgren or Isaiah Hartenstein on the floor.
In the two games in this series where Holmgren attempted double-digit shots, he finished with 22 and 21 points. He’s also shot the 3-ball better in this series, knocking down 33.3 percent of his attempts.
He’s worth a look at this number, especially since these teams have played some high-scoring games in this series.
Jalen Williams OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-130) – 0.5 unit
The Western Conference Finals have been a huge bounce-back series for Jalen Williams, and he turned in his best performance of the playoffs in Game 4.
Williams finished with 34 points, and he knocked down multiple shots from beyond the arc for the third straight game.
The All-NBA forward was 6-for-9 from deep in Game 4, and he’s 11-for-22 overall in the series. Williams has also attempted at least five shots from deep in each of the last three games.
With the Wolves aiming to shut off Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at the rim, it has opened up a lot of open shots for Williams and the rest of the Thunder offense.
At such a low line (1.5 3s made), Williams is worth a look at home in Game 5.
Anthony Edwards OVER 26.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit
Edwards took just 13 shots in Game 4, but I expect that he’ll go down swinging in Game 5 – even if the Thunder attempt to get the ball out of his hands once again.
This postseason, Edwards has scored 27 or more points six times, including twice in this series (Games 2 and 3). After taking just 13 shots in Game 1, he responded with 26 shot attempts in Game 2 and a 12-for-17 showing in the blowout win for the Wolves in Game 3.
For his playoff career, Edwards is averaging 27.1 points on 20.2 shots per game. While the Thunder have done a good job of limiting his easy looks, I can’t imagine that the All-NBA guard continues to defer with the Wolves’ season on the line.
I’d bet on him being more aggressive from the start – he didn’t take a shot until well into the first quarter of Game 4 – on Wednesday night.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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