Game 2 between the Golden State Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference semifinals will get standalone treatment by the NBA on Thursday.
After an offensive slog in Game 1, which also saw Steph Curry go down with a hamstring injury, oddsmakers have set the total for this game at just 201 points. The Wolves are 10-point favorites at home, as Curry is expected to miss Game 2 – and at least a week – with his hamstring injury.
Golden State stole Game 1 on the road, but it could be in a tough spot in this series if Curry can’t return until Game 5 or later. Based on his timeline, Curry’s earlier chance to play would be on May 14 in Game 5.
Despite the injury to the Warriors’ best player, I have a couple of bets I’m placing for Thursday’s action, including a pick for Jimmy Butler, who should get all the touches he can handle in Game 2.
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jimmy Butler OVER 38.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-105) – 0.5 unit
Butler played over 41 minutes and attempted 20 shots in Game 1, and I expect a very similar workload for him going forward with Curry out of the lineup.
Butler has five games this postseason with 20 or more points, and he’s put up 17, 15 and 19 combined rebounds and assists in his last three games. That is going to be huge for the Warriors star when it comes to this prop, and I expect his assist number to continue to rise as he’ll likely be on the ball even more than usual in Game 2.
Butler has cleared 38.5 points, rebounds and assists in just two games this postseason, but he’s also finished with exactly 38 in two other games.
If there’s ever a time to expect a “Playoff Jimmy” type of performance, it’s going to be the next few games with Curry out.
Minnesota Timberwolves 1st Quarter -2.5 (-115) vs. Golden State Warriors – 0.5 unit
So far this postseason, the Warriors are the third-worst playoff team in first quarter net rating at -17.8. Only the Miami Heat and Memphis Grizzlies – two No. 8 seeds that were swept in the first round – posted worse net ratings in the opening quarter of games.
Now, with Curry out of the lineup, I don’t see Golden State keeping this game close early.
Minnesota needs a win to even the series, and the Wolves actually were up two points (20-18) in Game 1 before struggling mightily on offense in the second quarter.
While I don’t want to take anything away from Golden State’s win on Tuesday, I also don’t see Anthony Edwards going 0-for-8 with one point in the first half again.
As Golden State attempts to navigate life without Curry, I expect the Wolves to get off to a fast start on Thursday.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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