The Minnesota Timberwolves avoided the dreaded 3-0 series deficit and put together a dominant showing in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals, beating the Oklahoma City Thunder 143-101.
After getting outclassed in the first two games in OKC, Minnesota answered the bell in Game 3, shooting over 57 percent from the field and exactly 50.0 percent from 3. Seven different players finished in double figures, a huge step forward for a Wolves team that got very little from its bench in Games 1 and 2.
Despite Minnesota’s huge win, oddsmakers still have the Thunder favored on the road in Game 4. OKC is also the clear favorite in the odds to win the Finals, sitting at -260 even after losing Game 3.
In Game 4, I’m eyeing a pair of players in the prop market, as Julius Randle and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have both performed well in the playoffs, but may be undervalued entering Game 4.
Here’s a breakdown of each of the bets to make for Monday’s Western Conference Finals matchup.
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Julius Randle OVER 18.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit
Randle struggled in Game 2 of this series, shooting 2-for-11 from the field and finishing with six points, but he bounced back in a big way on Saturday.
Randle finished with 24 points on 9-of-15 shooting (2-for-5 from 3), and he took advantage of the size differential between himself and various OKC wing defenders – including Jalen Williams – that were thrown at him.
This postseason, Randle has cleared 18.5 points in 10 of his 13 games, averaging 22.8 points per game. In addition to that, the three-time All-Star has been really efficient, shooting 51.0 percent from the field and 37.7 percent from 3.
This line seems to be an overreaction to Randle’s Game 2, and he’s scored 28 and 24 points in his other two games in this series. I love him at this number in Game 4.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 6.5 Assists (-140) – 0.5 unit
All postseason long, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s passing has been a bit undervalued – especially when it comes to the prop market.
While SGA is averaging 6.6 assists per game in the playoffs, which makes his 6.5 prop seem extremely reasonable, his potential assists suggest he should be averaging way more.
Through 14 playoff games, Shai is averaging 15.3 potential assists per game, and he’s picked up nine, eight and six dimes in his three games in this series. It’s worth noting that SGA had six dimes in Game 3 despite playing just 27:38 since the Thunder were getting blown out.
If Game 4 is more competitive, I’d expect SGA to clear this number, especially since he’s setting his teammates up at a higher rate than he did in the regular season. During the regular season, SGA averaged 6.4 assists per game on 12.1 potential assists.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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