A pair of Western Conference Game 5 matchups are taking place on Wednesday night, as the Golden State Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves are just one win away from wrapping up their respective first-round matchups.
Golden State held on to secure a three-point win over the Houston Rockets on Monday with Jimmy Butler back in the lineup, but oddsmakers have set the Warriors as underdogs in Game 5 in Houston. The two squads split the first two games in Houston, although the Rockets’ lone win in this series came in Game 2 when Butler left early with a pelvic contusion.
In the No. 3 vs. No. 6 matchup in the West, the lower-seeded Timberwolves stormed back from a second-half deficit to beat the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 4 and take a 3-1 series lead. Now, Los Angeles needs to win three games in a row – starting with Game 5 at home – in order to advance to the second round.
The winners of these two series will match up in the second round, so it’s possible that we’ll have a Golden State-Minnesota series locked in by the end of the night.
I’m eying a few bets for Wednesday’s action, including a player prop for Julius Randle.
Here’s a complete breakdown of the best bets for Wednesday’s playoff games.
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Julius Randle OVER 20.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit
Randle has been awesome for the Timberwolves in the first round, scoring 22 or more points in each of the last three games while shooting 47.6 percent from the field in the series. He’s also knocking down over 45 percent of his shots from beyond the arc.
Has the Wolves star finally shaken his playoff demons?
It appears so, and the Lakers have made things easy on Randle where he likes to operate most. Los Angeles is not playing a rim protector in this series (outside a couple of Jaxson Hayes minutes), and that’s allowed Randle to get just about whatever he wants at the rim.
Plus, the Wolves forward is getting to the line at a high rate, attempting nine free throws in Game 2 and 10 in Game 3.
It’s clear the Wolves trust Randle as their secondary creator, and he’s seen the minutes (38 or more in three straight) and touches to clear this prop once again in Game 5.
Golden State Warriors +4 (-108) vs. Houston Rockets – 0.5 unit
It’s never a good sign in a playoff series when your best offense is missing a shot.
Unfortunately, that is the case for the Rockets, who have dominated the boards but can’t seem to make enough shots to beat the Warriors.
Houston enters Game 5 in 14th (out of 16 playoff teams) in effective field goal percentage and 12th in offensive rating. After watching the Rockets take Game 2, some NBA bettors may have felt like there was a path to Houston winning this series, but that has become rather unrealistic.
In that Game 2 win, Jalen Green scored 38 points and made eight shots from beyond the arc for the Rockets. In the other three games? Well, he has 24 total points and two made 3-pointers.
That’s not going to get it done, and now Houston has to deal with Jimmy Butler (27 points in Game 4) being back in the lineup for Golden State.
While the Warriors aren’t looking great offensively either, they have two of the best closers in the Game in Butler and Steph Curry. Meanwhile, Houston was dead last in the NBA in clutch-time field goal percentage in the regular season.
I’ll gladly take the points with Golden State in this game, as it may be able to close things out in Houston.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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