The New York Knicks kept their season alive on Thursday night in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals, beating the Indiana Pacers by double digits at Madison Square Garden.
Now, the series shifts back to Indiana, as the Pacers aim to close things out and advance to face the Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA Finals. Only 13 teams in NBA history have come back from a 3-1 series deficit, so the odds are stacked against the Knicks on Saturday night.
Oddsmakers have set the Pacers as four-point favorites at home, but they have lost two games at home this postseason – Game 3 against Cleveland and Game 3 against New York. Overall, Indiana has just four losses in the playoffs.
I’m eyeing a pair of bets for Game 6, including a player prop for Knicks superstar guard Jalen Brunson, who continues to lead the way scoring the ball night in and night out. Brunson had a huge game against the Pacers in Game 5, scoring 32 points on 12-of-18 shooting from the field.
Let’s break down each of these picks for Saturday’s NBA playoff action!
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jalen Brunson OVER 31.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit
In this series, Brunson has had an answer for every single defensive assignment the Pacers have thrown at home – even Aaron Nesmith.
While Nesmith has done a great job fighting through screens, Brunson is still shooting a whopping 54.8 percent from the field when guarded by him in this series. He’s also 47.1 percent against Ben Sheppard, who has drawn a lot of the bench assignments, and 83.3 percent against Bennedict Mathurin.
In this series, Brunson has four games with 31 or more points, and he’s attempted at least 18 shots in every game. He’s also taken double-digit free throws in three of the five games in this matchup.
I’m buying Brunson to have a big showing with the Knicks’ season on the line tonight.
Pacers First Quarter Moneyline (-125) vs. New York Knicks – 0.5 unit
The Pacers are favored at home in Game 6, but I’m not totally sold on laying this number with how well the Knicks fared offensively in Game 5.
That being said, New York has gotten off to a ton of slow starts in the playoffs, posting a net rating of -3.2 in the opening frame.
The Pacers, on the other hand, are sixth in the NBA this postseason in first-quarter net rating at +2.1. It’s not a huge difference, but we’re simply asking Indiana to win the first quarter – not win it by a specific margin.
Indiana also has a +12 scoring margin in the first quarter at home in this series, winning Game 3 by four points in the opening frame and Game 4 by eight points.
The Knicks have led after the first quarter in the other three games in this series, but I expect Indiana to come out strong at home. The Pacers’ net rating jumps to +16.4 in the first quarter when at Gainbridge Fieldhouse this postseason.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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