There is still life for the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals, as they stormed back from a 20-point deficit for the third time this postseason to beat the Indiana Pacers in Game 3.
After losing back-to-back games at Madison Square Garden, the Knicks avoided the dreaded 3-0 series deficit with Sunday night’s win, and they have a chance to even the series on Tuesday night in Indiana.
Oddsmakers have set Tyrese Haliburton and company as favorites for the second straight game at home, but Indy has had some nervous moments at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, losing back-to-back Game 3s.
However, in the second round, Indy stormed back with a dominant Game 4 performance to push the Cleveland Cavaliers to the brink. Can it do the same to the Knicks?
New York switched up its starting lineup – and some rotations – in Game 3, but it was Karl-Anthony Towns’ 20-point fourth quarter that ended up swinging the game for New York.
The Knicks are still underdogs in the series, but everything could flip if they even things on Tuesday night.
Let’s dive into my best bets for Tuesday’s action, including a player prop for Knicks wing Mikal Bridges.
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Indiana Pacers Moneyline (-142) vs. New York Knicks – 0.5 unit
Even though the Pacers blew a big lead in Game 3, they had the Knicks on the ropes once again, getting out in transition and scoring at will in the first half.
Things cooled off in the second half, especially after Aaron Nesmith turned his ankle (he did return to the game), but Indiana’s offense (No. 2 in offensive rating and No. 1 in effective field goal percentage this postseason) has been too good to fade in back-to-back games.
The Pacers simply are getting way easier looks than the Knicks, who rank 10th in the NBA in effective field goal percentage this postseason. Plus, New York needed a dominant fourth quarter from Karl-Anthony Towns just to pull off the comeback win in Game 4.
Indiana followed a similar blueprint in the second round, losing Game 3 at home before it trounced the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 4. The Knicks haven’t had a ton of answers for the Pacers on the defensive end, and some of their best stretches in Game 3 came with one of Jalen Brunson or Towns off the floor, which weakens New York’s offense.
I’m also buying a bounce-back from the Pacers on offense. They shot just 5-for-25 from 3 in Game 3 and turned the ball over 12 times. Indy not only is the best shooting team in the playoffs, but it’s also No. 1 in assist/turnover ratio.
At this short price, I’ll back the Pacers to win Game 4.
Mikal Bridges OVER 15.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit
Mikal Bridges did not shoot the ball well in Game 3, going 6-for-18 from the field, but he still finished with 15 points.
Bridges’ usage in this series has been interesting, as the Knicks wing has taken 16, 18, and 18 shots, scoring 16, 20, and 15 points in those three games.
He’s cleared 15.5 points in four of his last six games, and he had multiple games against the Boston Celtics in the second round where he attempted 15 or more shots (three times). That gives Bridges a pretty solid floor when it comes to this market, and he should get some minutes as the focal point of the offense when Brunson or Towns end up sitting.
After playing 37 or more minutes in each of the first three games in this series, Bridges’ usage in this offense is too attractive to pass up in Game 4.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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