For the second postseason in a row, the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers face off, only this time a trip to the NBA Finals is on the line.
The Pacers are in the Eastern Conference Finals for the second season in a row, although they were swept by the Boston Celtics last season. New York, meanwhile, is back in the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time in over 25 years, and unlike last season, it is healthy entering this series.
There is a ton of playoff history between these teams, as the Knicks and Pacers have faced off in the postseason eight times. Indiana has won five of those matchups, including each of the last three.
On Wednesday, the Knicks find themselves as favorites in Game 1, but there is a player prop that I’m targeting for my favorite bet of the night.
In addition to that, bettors may want to consider fading the Knicks in the first quarter after they’ve gotten off to a bunch of slow starts this postseason. Here’s a complete breakdown of each of the picks for Game 1 on May 21.
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jalen Brunson OVER 28.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit
I absolutely love this matchup for Jalen Brunson, as the Knicks star guard is averaging 28.8 points per game in the playoffs, shooting 44.0 percent from the field and 36.3 percent from 3.
While the circumstances – and the supporting cast – are different for Brunson this season, I can’t look past how he dominated the Pacers in the playoffs last season. Indiana does not have a great one-on-one matchup for him, and I think the Knicks guard will be able to pick out the defenders he wants to attack with the Knicks pick-and-roll offense.
Here’s how Brunson fared against his three primary matchups in the second round last season:
Indiana has been a much better defense in the second half of this season, but Brunson’s usage is massive. He’s attempting 22.3 shots and 7.8 free throws per game in the playoffs.
Until Indiana proves that it has a scheme to slow down Brunson, especially now that he has more help on offense, I think this line is too low. Brunson has 29 or more points in seven games already this postseason.
Indiana Pacers First Quarter +1 (-110) vs. New York Knicks – 0.5 unit
So far in the playoffs, the Knicks’ offense hasn’t been nearly as good as it was during the regular season, and New York has struggled early in games.
The Knicks have a -2.7 net rating in the first quarter in the playoffs, and they rank 12th amongst 16 playoff teams in first quarter offensive rating.
The Pacers, on the other hand, have a positive net rating in the first quarter and have the No. 2 offensive rating in the playoffs among all teams.
While winning Game 1 on the road is certainly possible for Indiana, I like this first quarter play better since the Knicks have been notorious for starting slow. New York came out flat in a bunch of games against Detroit and also fell behind in each of the first four games against Boston.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Pacers take an early lead in Game 1, especially since they have such a fast-paced attack that could overwhelm the Knicks early.
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