Could the Eastern Conference Finals come to an end on Thursday night?
Tyrese Haliburton and the Indiana Pacers took a commanding 3-1 series lead on Tuesday night, scoring 130 points in Game 4 to beat the New York Knicks by nine.
After winning the first two games of the series in New York, Indiana is now in the driver’s seat entering Game 5 at Madison Square Garden.
In fact, the Pacers are 6-1 on the road in the playoffs and have won their last six games away from Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Despite that, the Knicks are favored to extend the series in Game 5. New York blew Game 1 at home, squandering a nine-point lead in the final minute to lose in overtime. That has set the Knicks back in this series, as they now are attempting to become one of 14 teams in NBA history to come back from a 3-1 deficit in a best-of-seven series.
Oddsmakers have the Pacers set as -600 favorites to win this series, but will they finish the job on Thursday?
Here’s a breakdown of my best bets for this game, including a pick for a side and a player prop for Knicks wing Josh Hart.
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Indiana Pacers +5 (-110) vs. New York Knicks
The Pacers have not only been a great team on the road in the playoffs, but it’s something they’ve done all season long.
Indiana is 18-10 against the spread as a road underdog – the fourth-best mark in the NBA – and it won both games as a road dog to open this series.
The Pacers have even kept their lone loss in this matchup close, losing by six points in Game 3 at home. So, the five-point spread in Game 5 seems a little lofty for a Knicks team that only has one blowout win – Game 6 of the second round against Boston – all postseason.
The Pacers are killing the Knicks’ defense, forcing them to play an uptempo style while attacking guard Jalen Brunson and big man Karl-Anthony Towns every chance they get.
In the playoffs, the Pacers are No. 1 in effective field goal percentage and No. 2 in offensive rating. The Knicks didn’t have any answers for Pascal Siakam or Tyrese Haliburton in Game 4, and I’m worried New York is out of options to guard this Indiana team on the defensive end.
Plus, Towns appeared to injure his knee in Game 4, although he stayed in for the final minutes. If he’s at less than 100 percent, it’s hard to see the Knicks extending this series for much longer.
Even if New York does pull out a win, I expect this game – like all the others in this series – to be extremely close.
Josh Hart OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-130) – 0.5 unit
Hart has moved to the bench for the Knicks in this series, but he’s still had an impact on the glass, grabbing 13 boards in Game 1, 10 in Game 3, and 11 in Game 4.
After averaging well over nine rebounds per game in the regular season, Hart may be undervalued in this prop in Game 5, with it set at just 8.5.
The Knicks’ do-it-all wing is averaging 17.8 rebound chances per game this postseason, including 17.5 rebound chances per game in this series.
The Pacers are just 11th in rebounding percentage out of 16 playoff teams this season, so this is a favorable matchup for Hart on the glass. With Towns dealing with a knee issue, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Hart reach double-digit boards for the fourth time in this series.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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