The NBA Finals have become a best-of-three, as the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder are knotted at two games apiece heading into Game 5 on Monday night.
Oklahoma City may have saved its season on Friday night in Game 4, rallying back from a fourth-quarter deficit to even the series at two games apiece. Only one team in NBA history has ever come back from a 3-1 deficit in the Finals, so OKC avoided having to make history again over these next three games.
After the Game 4 win, oddsmakers moved the Thunder to -450 favorites to win the series, as they’ll have two chances at home to win this series. OKC is a 9.5-point favorite at home in Game 5, but Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers have already taken a game at Paycom Center in this series.
Can Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company get one step closer to winning the title?
Here’s a breakdown of my best bets for Game 5 on Monday night.
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Indiana Pacers +9.5 (-112) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
So far this postseason, the Pacers are a shocking 9-4 against the spread as underdogs, and they’ve won all nine of those games outright – including Game 1 of this series.
The Indiana Pacers are 9-4 ATS as underdogs this postseason, winning all nine games outright.
Pacers +6.5 in Game 4 tonight at @BetMGM
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) June 13, 2025
While Indiana failed to cover in Game 2 in OKC, every other game in this series has been decided by less than 10 points, and I don’t believe there is a 10-point difference between these teams.
In fact, one could argue that the Pacers blew Game 4 when they had a chance to take a stranglehold of the series. Indiana was up double digits in the second half, but it struggled mightily on offense down the stretch – something that had been an issue for OKC in Games 1 and 3.
Overall, the Pacers are 25-19-1 against the spread as underdogs this season and 19-12 ATS when set as underdogs on the road.
OKC’s offense has struggled at times in this series, and it is extremely reliant on SGA having a big scoring game. The Pacers, for the most part, have done a great job of getting the ball out of SGA’s hands and making other players on the Thunder beat them in this series.
After it made just three shots from beyond the arc in Game 4, OKC is very volatile on the offensive end at the moment. I’m not sold on laying 10 points – even at home – with the Thunder to take Game 5.
I think Indiana keeps this thing close and covers as an underdog for the 10th time this postseason.
Chet Holmgren OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-130)
It’s been clear in this series that Mark Daigneault prefers to play small against Indiana, using Chet Holmgren as the team’s primary center.
That was on full display in Game 4, as Holmgren played 37:11 and put together a huge double-double, scoring 14 points and grabbing 15 rebounds (four offensive) in the process.
It was the second time in as many games that the Thunder big man reached double figures in the rebounding department.
I love Holmgren in this prop again in Game 5, as he’s played over 34 minutes in back-to-back games and has hit the glass at a high rate all postseason, averaging 8.7 rebounds on 16.2 rebound chances per game.
In this series, Holmgren is averaging 9.3 boards on 16.3 rebound chances per game, and those numbers have jumped to 12.5 and 18.5 over the last two contests.
At 8.5 rebounds, Holmgren is a steal in Game 5.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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