The NBA Finals are finally here!
After a long layoff between the Western Conference and Eastern Conference Finals, Game 1 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers tips off at 8 p.m. EST on Thursday night.
Oddsmakers have set the Thunder as huge favorites to win this series, and that includes them being favored at home in Game 1 – but it makes sense.
Not only is OKC the best team in the NBA against the spread as a home favorite this season, but Shai Gilgoues-Alexander and company went 68-14 in the regular season and are 12-4 in the playoffs entering this series.
The team with the best net rating and defensive rating in the NBA should be favored, but the Thunder aren’t going to want to take the Pacers lightly.
Indiana stormed through the Eastern Conference, also going 12-4, while posting an impressive 6-2 record on the road. The Pacers are the best shooting team in the NBA in the playoffs (No. 1 in effective field goal percentage), and they play at a frenetic pace led by star guard Tyrese Haliburton.
That should make for a fun series, and plenty of bets for us to place along the way.
So far this season, it’s been a rough go (just look at my record below), but I have some positive news. For anyone who tailed my preseason futures bets all the way back in October, you’d know that the Thunder and Pacers were two of five teams that I bet on to win the title. So, no matter the outcome, we’ll either be cashing a +700 ticket on OKC or a +6000 ticket on the Pacers.
As for Game 1, I’m eyeing a pair of bets, including a player prop for Haliburton in his NBA Finals debut.
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tyrese Haliburton UNDER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-125)
Haliburton has been awesome in the playoffs for the Pacers, dictating the tempo of games on a nightly basis and driving this elite offense.
However, he has not shot the 3-ball as well as you’d expect, and I think that will continue against the NBA’s No. 1 defense.
Through 16 games this postseason, Haliburton is shooting just 33.3 percent from 3 on just over seven attempts per game. While he’s averaging 2.4 made 3s per game, he’s only cleared 2.5 made 3-pointers in six of his 16 matchups.
Three of those games came against the New York Knicks (who were just 26th in opponent 3-point percentage in the regular season), and the competition gets a lot tougher in Game 1 against OKC.
This postseason, the Thunder are holding opponents to just 33.1 percent shooting from 3-point range. Only one team that made the second round (Boston) held opponents to a better percentage from beyond the arc.
With Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams and others likely to bother Haliburton, I think he falls just short of this line for the 11th time this postseason.
Oklahoma City Thunder First Quarter -3 (-110) vs. Indiana Pacers
I know, I know, you want a pick for the full game.
But, I want to deliver a winner.
There are some interesting first quarter trends so far this postseason, including the fact that OKC has an insane net rating of +30.3 at home in the first quarter this postseason.
OKC was 43-37-3 against the spread in the first quarter during the regular season, and it has posted some big numbers in the first quarter – including holding the Minnesota Timberwolves to nine points in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals – in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Pacers have a road net rating of -10.6 in the opening frame, and they actually fell behind quite a bit against the New York Knicks in the first quarter in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Paycom Center is about as hostile of an environment that there is in the NBA playoffs, and I lean with the No. 1 defense in Game 1 of the Finals if both teams get off to a slow start. There’s going to be some nerves likely on both sides, but the Thunder defense is the best single unit in the NBA.
I expect OKC to get off to a solid start and build on this first quarter net rating in Game 1.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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