The first round of the NBA playoffs finally wraps up on Sunday, as the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets engage in the best thing in sports:
A Game 7.
But, before that matchup kicks off, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers begin their second-round series after both teams cruised through the first round in the Eastern Conference.
Cleveland is a sizable favorite at home in that matchup, but there is a player prop that I love on the Pacers side in that contest.
In the Golden State-Houston game, I’m staking a claim to a side for this Game 7 as well as backing one of the greatest Game 7 performers of all time. This should be a fun day in the NBA, let’s dive into the bets!
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Golden State Warriors +2.5 (-112) vs. Houston Rockets – 0.5 unit
I’ll go down with the ship, as I can’t see Golden State losing three straight games to become just the 14th team in NBA history to blow a 3-1 series lead in the playoffs.
The Warriors have admittedly struggled over the last two games, but they still have the experience and star power to win this game on the road. Golden State won Game 1 in a hostile environment in Houston, and the Warriors have players that have been in this situation before in Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green and Steph Curry.
The Rockets have won on the strength of their defense – and their two-big lineups – but I am worried about them in a potential slog of a game on Sunday. If the Rockets have to get baskets in the half court on a consistent basis, we’ve seen that become a problem area for them in this series.
Plus, only 13 teams in NBA history have erased a 3-1 series deficit. I’m not totally sold that this young Houston team is equipped to join this group, especially if Jalen Green continues to struggle on offense.
I’ll take the Warriors to cover – and potentially win – this Game 7.
Steph Curry OVER 26.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit
Curry’s 29 points in Game 6 weren’t enough to get the Warriors the win, and now they have their backs against the wall in Game 7 on the road.
However, Curry has constantly risen to the occasion in Game 7s in his career, averaging 32.6 points, 7.0 assists and 6.4 rebounds in five appearances. The only Game 7 where he finished with fewer than 27 points came in the 2016 NBA Finals against the Cleveland Cavaliers – which ended in a Golden State loss.
Curry is going to take a ton of shots and play a ton of minutes in this game, as Golden State doesn’t really have any answers on offense outside of him and Jimmy Butler in this series. Curry is averaging 24.3 points on 17.5 shots per game in this series, but he’s put up 19 or more shots in half of the games.
I’m buying him to have a signature performance in Game 7.
Tyrese Haliburton OVER 9.5 Assists (-145) – 0.5 unit
This postseason, Tyrese Haliburton has 10 or more assists in four of five games, and he’s averaging a whopping 17.0 potential assists per night.
In the second half of the regular season (after the All-Star break), Haliburton returned to his All-NBA form, averaging 11.0 assists per game across 21 games.
In a matchup with a total all the way up at 229.5, I think Haliburton may be a little undervalued in this market – even against a tough Cavs defense. The Pacers guard will have the ball in his hands a ton, and he’s done a great job in this postseason of involving his teammates, leading to some big games from Pascal Siakam against Milwaukee.
At anything set at under 10.5 assists, Haliburton is worth a shot on the OVER.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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