Friday’s NBA playoff action features a pair of crucial Game 3s for the No. 1 seeds in each conference.
Let’s start in the East.
Donovan Mitchell and the Cleveland Cavaliers blew a seven-point lead in the final minute of Game 2 on Tuesday, falling into a 0-2 hole against the Indiana Pacers in the first round. With the Cavs dealing with injuries to Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and De’Andre Hunter, they’re in a tough spot to win four of the next five games to advance.
So, rather than betting a side in this matchup, I’m betting on a prop for Mitchell, who has done just about everything he can to will the Cavs to a win – without actually getting one.
In the Western Conference, the Oklahoma City Thunder bounced back from a Game 1 loss to put up 149 points on Wednesday in Game 2, evening their series with the Denver Nuggets.
Now, OKC is a road favorite in Game 3, and I’m buying the West’s top seed to take the lead in this matchup. Denver’s lack of depth is a concern, and the team’s defense (which was one of the 10-worst units in the league in the regular season) has not held up so far in this series, allowing 268 points in two games.
Let’s break down each of these plays for the action on Friday night.
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 (-110) vs. Denver Nuggets – 0.5 unit
Denver won Game 1 of this series in dramatic fashion,but I’m not buying the Nuggets – even at home – at this price in Game 3.
OKC had not played a great offensive game in the postseason until Game 2, as Gilgeous-Alexander had shot the ball pretty poorly (just over 41 percent from the field) in his first five games.
Now, the Thunder appear to have figured out this Denver defense that finished in the bottom 10 in the NBA in defensive rating during the regular season.
As great as Nikola Jokic is, the Nuggets don’t have enough depth to go night in and night out with this Thunder team that is elite on the defensive end of the floor (No. 1 in defensive rating during the regular season).
OKC is also elite as a road favorite, going 23-14-2 against the spread.
The Thunder were up double-digits for a good chunk of Game 1, and they completely dominated Game 2. This price is short enough for bettors to trust them in Game 3 on the road.
Donovan Mitchell OVER 29.5 Points (-120)
Mitchell has been asked to carry the scoring load for the Cavs with Darius Garland and Evan Mobley banged up, and his usage is off the charts.
Mitchell has taken 30 shots in each of his games in this series, scoring 33 points in Game 1 and 48 points in Game 2. He was able to get to the line for 21 free-throw attempts in Game 2.
I expect another heavy workload for Mitchell on Friday, especially since the Cavs are in a must-win scenario. Mitchell has four games this postseason with 30 or more points, and the only reason he didn’t clear this prop in the final two games against Miami was because the Cavs went up by so much.
In what should be a closer game, Mitchell is going to get up all the shots he can handle on Friday night.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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